Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane CenterHurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


Depression-Like System now bringing banding and training Heavy rains and Tstorms to parts of Tx. May drench the region for several days.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 254 (Nate) , Major: 272 (Maria) Florida - Any: 282 (Irma) Major: 282 (Irma)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


Archives 2000s >> 2003 News Talkback

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | >> (show all)
HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
mid season off to an uninteresting start
      #9877 - Sun Aug 24 2003 12:13 AM

td 9.. bye. when you see a system go like that, it's time to pack six feet of dirt over it and wait for the next one. the candidates for 'next one' would be those i mentioned this morning.. they're basically unchanged, just 12hrs older. starting on the last week of august here with an empty basin.
ignacio in the pacific is going, which points to atlantic activity being possible. so i'm still thinking something will form, but with the dull and unimpressive performances so far this month (erika was another speed demon, same recycled story).. and the erstwhile t.d. (thats four this season, not even halfway over).. i'm starting to wonder whether the season forecasts are missing some key ingredient that's cutting in on the activity.
HF 0412z24august


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
BillD
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 396
Loc: Miami 25.70N 80.29W
Re: sigh... and staring...thinking what to say that hasn't been said *DELETED*
      #9878 - Sun Aug 24 2003 12:17 AM

Post deleted by BillD

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: mid season off to an uninteresting start
      #9879 - Sun Aug 24 2003 12:24 AM

Oh well, will just have to wait for the next candidate to come around. I agree that mid-season has been un-impressive to say the least. The increased activity at the beginning of the season has us primed for more. It should start to pick back up before too long or the majorty of us will be way off on our numbers. Go figure!

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Eduardo
Unregistered




Tropical Wave
      #9880 - Sun Aug 24 2003 12:57 AM

Hey, so what do you all think is the possibility of the wave east of the islands developing... to me it seems rather symmetrical and it seems to be holding itself together rather decently -- but my experience is rather small with this.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Hurricanes and Haiti
      #9881 - Sun Aug 24 2003 12:58 AM

Thanks to both of you for clearing that up. Since I've got the famous 'hook' with regards to the Rules of Engagement, I'd like to remind our posters that there is an Off Topic Forum and as the Fall sports season gears up, I'd enjoy reading about your favorite team's accomplishments IN THAT FORUM - its a good place for it and lets me get a better image of what makes you tick.

Great post Lois - another candidate from recent history was Hurricane GEORGES in 1998 which left a calling card on a whole bunch of the islands.

EDIT: After re-reading your post, I realized that your book made an error on the name for the 1998 storm since the 'H' storm that year was Hermine, not Hortense - the reference probably meant to refer to Georges.

Thanks,
ED

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun Aug 24 2003 08:54 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
Re: Hurricanes and Haiti
      #9882 - Sun Aug 24 2003 01:20 AM

Real interesting Bastardi videos cut this afternoon (Long Ranger and Tropical Update). He's worried about he NC/NW Gulf this week, South FL this weekend and the east coast next week. He thinks we're going to have to wait until former 9 gets a bit NW of Cuba for development. He's fired up about 2 things - first is the (what he called) near record NAO we're about to score and 2) the 15 day effect of the SOI going hardcore positive and putting a trof around 90 west (meaning all of you east of me are wide open for a while). After that, he says the flow will again flatten because nothing can beat the Atlantic H20 Temp profiles. That means the Gulf is back open as the following trof digs out again in the Rockies mid-month.

But I get the feeling that the second wave (3 different pieces) is the one that he thinks could get really strong off the SE coast.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
BillD
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 396
Loc: Miami 25.70N 80.29W
Re: Tropical Wave
      #9883 - Sun Aug 24 2003 02:16 AM

Which piece?

As Steve points out the next wave has split into at least two parts, maybe three, or the third has just materialized on its own.

I think we should wait and see, no way to know what any of the parts will do at this point.

Bill


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
Re: Tropical Wave
      #9884 - Sun Aug 24 2003 08:41 AM

Who knows? But I think it will have to consolidate, disengage or simplify to get it done. TPC in their 5:30am discussion today says "large, complex wave". And while I like my music complicated, tropical systems don't come together when they are too complicated.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
JustMe
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 128
Loc: Orlando, Florida 28.54N 81.39W
Re: TROPICS ARE QUIET
      #9886 - Sun Aug 24 2003 09:10 AM

will be watching tv and yelling for the Boyton Beach kids tonight. hope all goes their way. My son went to the world series a few years ago from Altamonte Springs. What a wonderful adventure for them.....

Tropics ... need a rest from my watchful eyes. Maybe the one just off Africa will make it's way ... Time will tell. The others look anemic as most have this year.

Now is a great time for hurricane lessons... gonna surf the net for information.

Have a wonderful Sunday.

--------------------

I have survived Betsy Miss, Camille Miss., Andrew Fl, Charley Fl, Frances FL, Jeanne FL,


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
bobbi
Unregistered




well not musically but... as for literature as an example
      #9887 - Sun Aug 24 2003 09:18 AM

Don't know music as well as literature...

F. Scott Fitzgerald wrote a short story called Winter Dreams. It was not one of his most famous stories but well known. And, he takes a character from that story (Dexter I believe) and blends him with another characther from a story called Absolution and somewhere down the road is Gatsby, one of the most respected Novels in American Literature. No, its not the same plot or story but there are elements that blend later into a bigger plot. Not even a Novella in between.. short story.. Novel.

so... sometimes the tropics are like that. A wave is born, it spins, turns into a depression and doesn't make the cut to named storm. Moisture from that system floats around and some small inherent "need to spin" within that moisture hits the right place in the atmosphere and suddenly it blows up under the right conditions as one of the most well remembered storms in history. Not all big storms form off the coast of Africa and travel as an entity the whole way.. some just pop up in the Bahamas or like Camille under Cuba and then head for the finish line.

In a way I would worry less on the remnants and which part if the best canditate to take the mantle and run as I would the atmospheric environment that would lead to the best conditions that would enhance development.

Have heard its alive south of Cuba in a tstorm and have heard its reforming in the bahamas.. as Bob Weaver said this morning on the news... it could, just have to keep an eye on the weather, have a good day and see what might be developing. Don't quote me on words.. but content. In my opinion the area around Cuba seems to consistently have the most color on IR but there is some moisture in the Bahamas that I imagine will float towards Florida giving us rain if nothing else and maybe even some development.. if the conditions are right.

Speaking of conditions...
"whether the season forecasts are missing some key ingredient that's cutting in on the activity."

Yeah.. I agree.. something has been overlooked or tossed out as the possible answer. My immediate answer is not one everyone wants to hear... I believe... the main problem in the Atlantic is the DUST, African Dust, SAL, Saharan Dust.. oh call it SAM if you want but its the dost. If you look at that website with the conditions you will see that all week when nice wonderful waves came off and weren't spinning or stacking up properly the atmosphere was FULL of dust... bright orange and reds on the sat imagery from the African coast until about 60... now.. if y'all want to ignore a massive gigantic ORANGE RED elephant..go ahead, be my guest. I am just am amatuer weather weenie here..not a real BIG weather weenie like some of you but I know this much

You take a wave... a real WET wave that has a small noticeable twist on the sats...coming off of Africa.

It hits the water.. stays round..and about five degrees to ten degrees out fizzles.. cannot maintain itself and when it does the structure is not stacked properly, something interferes with its spin and the moisture gets spotty and the whole Atlantic out there has tons of dust that has to be weighing down the droplets of moisture that are moving heavenward never getting to that point where they spread out and form outflow signature.. they try to spin and cant and I would say that thar dust is inhibiting the process.

Yes...more complicated than that I am sure but you cannot make me believe that it doesn't have a negative effect on those waves and this is not my theory but has been studied by acclaimed and noted meteorologists in the recent past.

I would believe in that theory more than red dust from Mars sifting down and aiming for the Atlantic.. don't believe in wave monsters though not sure the rope theory isn't better than Mars and jupiter is currently alligned with venus not Mars... SAL has some say if you ask me.. SAL, SAM whatever..

Either way..something is affecting those waves and don't think its voodoo curses by some psychic Steve paid off in Nawlins or however you guys spell it and know down here in Myamuh we didn't pay anyone off..

Suggestions?

I'm listening...got nothing to look at so ... fire away.

Happy Sunday... want a storm... you know what I want... want it bad... want it like crazy and will have to keep waiting.



Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
Re: well not musically but... as for literature as an example
      #9888 - Sun Aug 24 2003 09:39 AM

No curses here. In fact, when I bring my kids to church on Sunday in the invocation part where they ask, "May life and property be spared this year from Hurricanes", I only give a half-hearted "Hear us oh Lord."

I like the area south of Cuba as it definitely is where the convection is popping up this morning. It also fits in with what Bastardi has been saying, that we'd have to wait until it was NW of Cuba before anything really happens.

None of the global models are offering any support for development, but that may be because they didn't have much but a ripple in the isobars to track. Could it be, yet again 2003, that we have to wait for a wave to get west of 80 to crank? That's nearly unheard of, but if our next system does, That would make 4 of 6 (Bill, Claudette, Erika, ?) that essentially did. One common theme has been strong mid-level systems that looked like they were revving up in the Caribbean only to be replaced down the road by the real heat engines, the LLC's themselves.

I'm waiting too. But I'll say this. I'd be SHOCKED if by Wednesday we're not tracking at least 2 systems - 1 close to home, the second heading for home.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Mary K.
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 166
Re: well not musically but... as for literature as an example
      #9889 - Sun Aug 24 2003 09:53 AM

That's what the article I read said only they were less explanatory about it. I think every thing has shifted a little this year so we are probably actually in the phase that would usually represent the end of October beginning of Novemeber conditions.Remember, I am an amateur, but our first storm was in April this year. Wasnt it. or am I hallucinating again.I am thinking that this major atmospheric shift might be influencing storms formations and that all these wannabees may never be anything but wannabees this year. Sort of like football, fun to watch. Unless you have bet too much money it doesnt matter how it comes out.

--------------------
weather is all you can count on, good or bad.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL 30.22N 85.86W
Re: well not musically but... as for literature as an example
      #9890 - Sun Aug 24 2003 10:26 AM

If you get bored.... run TC genesis AVN at 850 vort. Check out what it has our little area of interest doing... and then at about 108hrs+ look to the east and check out the dance it has going on

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: well not musically but... as for literature as an example
      #9891 - Sun Aug 24 2003 10:58 AM

Yes Cooper...it seems many of the globals want to develop something about to come of the African Coast...espcially AVN/GFS. I will believe when I see it. Bobbi did you watch the Channel 4 Hurricane Special last night? I wonder what they were thinking the other day when they scheduled the program.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: well not musically but... as for literature as an example
      #9892 - Sun Aug 24 2003 11:02 AM

Btw, 11 years ago today South FL was going through hell! Andrew was blowing through with winds gusting well over 150mph. Remember that day and the days after too well.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
squirralee
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 80
Loc: Mims, Florida
Re: well not musically but... as for literature as an example
      #9893 - Sun Aug 24 2003 11:06 AM

Yes a very sad, sad, day for alot of people.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Alex
Unregistered




Ignacio in the E-pac
      #9894 - Sun Aug 24 2003 12:05 PM

I know that this forum doesnt usually deal with the eastern pacific, but the forcast track for Ignacio is really strange. It has the hurricane moving up the gulf of california, remaining a hurricane(plausible, since it is a small system).

In the atlantic, I'd have to say that I'd look in the eastern atlantic right now, but the one wave west of the cape verds will have to get better organized(convection around the center) and the one still in Africa is still in the realm of pure speculation


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Cycloneye
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
Will we have longtrackers soon?
      #9895 - Sun Aug 24 2003 12:06 PM

Good afternoon to all ! Well here we are past the mid point of the season and no real long tracker system we had yet to see but will that change in the comming weeks? I am going out on a limb to say yes we will see 1 or 2 longtracker systems in the comming week as the SW of the cape verde system is organizing and at a low latitud 10n the low and a big wave emerging africa that models say will be the big one so let's see what happens with time and we will use out charts to track those CV longtrackers.

Storm Cooper that is another world you saw there.

--------------------
My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
twiddlethumbs
      #9896 - Sun Aug 24 2003 12:09 PM

like last year, every late august day i look out into the basin and see nothing active.. i have to wonder. things somehow continue to not happen. same can't be said for the eastpac.. they finally have their first hurricane (and record late it is).. which is actually a tiny, excellently formed system that is oddly forecast to go straight up the gulf of california. questionable until it assumes that track, but that would be a rare event. would take all week.
atlantic side.. blah. pesky broad low in the upper gulf with some kind of trough tailing eastward to the front off the east coast. still lingering and non-convective. some convection east of florida on the trough.. overall the area is of minor interest.
t.d. 9 remnants.. models continue to identify the area, but none redevelop it. seems as if the surface wave will drive westward.. some convection tailing and bending ever so slightly.. behaving sort of like a twitching corpse. feeling skeptical about everything so i doubt it has anything left in it.
55w wave. broad turning, very well defined, high amplitude. no real focal point though. northern piece slowing ahead of the amplification, nonconvective.. southern piece with isolated convection. ITCZ signature convection as well. not a today thing, unlikely a tomorrow thing.. but maybe something.
30w wave. nicest of the lot, good surface turning, good development candidate. far east however.. sooner it develops more likely it goes fishing.
probably one storm on deck, maybe another in the hole.. for the last week of the month. hard to say this with any confidence, but eventually climo and dumb probability will right things, eh? lets roll.
HF 1608z24august


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
modification
      #9897 - Sun Aug 24 2003 12:13 PM

just threw the NRL monterrey loop of 9L into motion, notice that there is a weak surface low near 17.5/80. convection removed.. but was surprised to see it.. so bump the system back up to interesting but not in great shape to redevelop.
HF 1613z24august


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | >> (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 24 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating: *****
Topic views: 33831

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center