Chat.Hexbot.com
Unregistered
|
|
Post deleted by Ed Dunham
|
Hurricane
Unregistered
|
|
Take a look at another interesting area in the south Atlantic
http://www.pro-weather.com/forums/index.php?act=Attach&type=post&id=18707
|
summercyclone
Unregistered
|
|
Fascinating--wonder why so much activity there, suddenly, this year?
I watch the globals (full disk) pretty much, so, it is not like we are just looking there and seeing stuff that has gone on all along...
sc
|
Rabbit
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
|
|
there was a hybrid early October 1992
go to Goes Browser, start at Sep 30 and go to Oct 3
also, there may be a hybrid system forming at about 33N/34W
http://www.weather.com/maps/maptype/satelliteworld/tropicalatlanticsatellite_large.html
its disorganized now, but moving SW over slightly warmer waters
|
HanKFranK
User
Reged:
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
|
|
interesting case for a hybrid. that clump of weather east of florida that gets kicked out to sea is tropical storm earl.. a fairly significant trough set into the eastern u.s. during that time. the gulf disturbance is assuredly close to or associated with a front.. hard to tell how organized it became from those full hemisphere shots.
if anybody knows where an archive of surface charts from yesteryear can be found, by all means give that one up to the crowd.
HF 2331z29april
|
Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
|
|
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/OTIS/US058VMET-GIFwxg.OTIS.glbl_sstanomaly.gif
http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/plots/gif/sst_wind_anom_5day_ps32.gif
Ummm it has been persistant for the past 3 weeks that cool pool in the pacific west of South America but el nino 3-4 are more warmer.Will eventually la nina in a weak stage develop during hurricane season is the question now.Now let's see what the models for say later this month about their long range forecasts.
--------------------
My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
Edited by Cycloneye (Sun May 02 2004 11:56 PM)
|
Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
|
|
Looks like La Nina in the EPAC for now.
I just got back from PCB (shout out to the man, JK) and the Gulf water seemed cold relative to what I'm used to in the last week of April. I've never looked at statistics for average water temperature in NW FL as of those dates, but unless the last few years were warm anomalies, it seemed a lot colder this year. Brrrr. I swam anyway, but not as much as I would have.
What does all this mean for the hurricane season? I don't know. I'm still studying up when I have the chance. Persistently colder SSTA's in the Gulf could put a cap on any activity this year as well as impact individual storm potential.
As for activity on the SA coast, the waters were running warmer than average. It's always suspect that storms will find their way to warm water. Also of note, the NW Atlantic is showing warm pools emerging this year. That's always been a Joe B correlation hypothesis as to western Atlantic activity. Speaking of Joe B., I'm going to have to re-up my subscription for 6 months with the season only 29 days away.
Steve
--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions
|
Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
|
|
So I re-upped my subscription with Accuweather for the storm season. Joe B is on vacation so the only stuff I could get from his site was a review of the 2003 season (relative to his landfall intensity forecast which topped out in the 60's) and some preliminary comments as to what he was looking at for 2004. His hurricane analogs from April are 1944, 1966, 1978 and 1995.
When looking at the maps, 1995 was mostly a fish spinner and Gulf of Mexico year (Dean in TX, Opal and Erin in NW FL, Gabrielle/Allison/Roxanne in Mexico, Jerry in SE FL, and all those storms curving from about 65 west and eastward in the Western Atlantic).
Map of 1995 Storms
1978 featured only 2 weak US landfalls - Amelia in South Texas and Bess in Western Louisiana. The rest were fish spinners in the Atlantic, most curving between 55 and 75 west with the exception of Hope which formed just east of the St. Augustine, FL coast). Cora hit the Southern Yucatan and Debra hit the Vera Cruz area.
Map of 1978 Hurricane Season
The 1966 Season was primarily a fish spinner year with storms forming primarily south of 15N and curving between 60 and 78W. Alma formed off the CA Coast and moved northward through Cuba and eventually hit around Apalachacola and finally the Massachusetts Cape. Faith began as a CV Storm, looped in the Bahams, clipped the FL Keys and eventually landfalled in Northern Mexico. Hollie formed in the BOC and made landfall on the Central Mexican Coast.
1966 Hurricane Season Map
Finally, 1944 was a strong East Coast and Gulf of Mexico year. The vortexes of the parabolas at curvature were very broad. I'm assuming there was a pretty strong Bermuda High with its western influence just off the US East Coast. The Tampa Bay area was hit with a Category 1 storm, Southern NC took a TD/TS hit, CT got a Cat 1 hit, Coastal New England took 3 brushes (including the CT hit), SE La took a TS hit, and Mexico took 2 or 3 TS-Cat 1 hits.
1944 Hurricane Map
As far as the summer weather patterns, Joe is looking at 1952, 1954, 1995 and 1998. These mostly featured below normal rainfall in the SE with strong spring reversals of the . He is forecasting the heat (+3 above normal) to be centered from about Western Tennessee to eastern Colorado and centered over Arkansas and Missouri. Most of those years also featured direr and warmer than average temps for all the SE States.
A few clues that Joe did give was that his landfall intensity forecast this year is factoring around 50. 37 is the normal for the US Mainland and Canadian Maritimes. Last year was around 63 or so. What also promises to be different this year (assuming no El Nino) is that the trofs (yeah, another trof split year ahead) will be much closer to the East Coast with pieces going back into the Gulf of Mexico. Joe expects the trofs to be progressive this year rather than backing west.
Joe's early take on the season is one of the 5 or 6 pieces to my forecast puzzle which I hope to have ready by late in the month.
Peace.
Steve
--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions
|
LI Phil
User
Reged:
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
|
|
Steve, interesting. Hurricane Alley has performed a similar analog study. Here's what they found:
For the purpose of this study, 32 variables were considered. The list of these variables can be found here. The historical data for the past years, from 1950 forward was used for the tropical cyclone information, the best track data from the National Hurricane Center was used for the location information. Each of the 32 variables was given a weighting and a tolerance value. Only the years when the "match" was at least 80% were used. It was determined that the analog years since 1950, or those that best "fit" this year's conditions through the end of September are 1972, 1985, 1988, 1990, 1995, 2002.
1972 1985 1988 1990 1995 2002
Those years produced a few notable storms. 1985 Gave Us Elena, Gloria & Kate; 1988 spawned Gilbert, 1995 had Opal & 2002 had Lili. Of course, Gloria is the one I'll never forget. It will be interesting to see if any of these analog years resemble this year.
Only 26 days till the 2004 Season "officially" begins. Happy cinco de mayo all 
--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
|
Rabbit
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
|
|
this year will be my 12th full season of hurricane tracking, and heres my forecast:
the first will form in late may or early june
we will have 2 july storms
3 august storms
4 september storms
3 october storms
------
2 storms will hit texas
2-3 will affect florida
1 will affect north carolina
-----
there will be 8 hurricanes
1 in july
2 in august
3 in september
2 in october
-----
there will be 3 major hurricanes
1 in august
2 in september
-----
3-5 storms will form in the atlantic south of 20 and east of 60
3-4 will form in the carribean
2-3 will form in the gulf
2-4 will form in the atlantic north of 20 and west of 50
-----
2-5 storms will likely have a non-tropical origin
also there will be 3 depressions that will not make it to storm
-----
this is the closest i've come to issuing a public forecast, so itll be interesting to see how it turns out
|
LI Phil
User
Reged:
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
|
|
Bugs, you need to change your tag line...12/9/3 should be 13/8/3, at least according to your forecast
--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
|
javlin
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
|
|
Lil Phil sure you never lived down south you sure are learning quick.I have been looking in from time to time see that we all wait for the first storm with anticpation.I was raking my yard awhile back 11 bags of leaves in one afternoon.I thought I havn't gotten that much in awhile.The first year we move in(George).I once heard a thought about acorns and pecans if a good year following season something might happen.Old wise tale I suppose we had alot of acorns also.
|
LI Phil
User
Reged:
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
|
|
Hey Javlin, thanks for the kind words but it's LI Phil not "Lil" Phil. Only my ex-wife can call me that 
--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
|
Steve Hirschb
Unregistered
|
|
This will be an exciting year in the tropics....may be similar to '95. neutral to La Nina conditions, west QBO, SSTs coming up nicely. Haven't had time to do any serious looking (been working on too many proposals  ) , but gut says real active year. Florida SSTs steadily climbing now, and I don't think we'll have the chilly waters off the coast like last year; that was crazy! SSTs in the mid 70's to near 80 at Lake Worth. All in all, might be a nasty season. That would figure, as the city is making me put a up a new fence. Mine is still leaning from Erin! CHeers!!
|
summercyclone
Unregistered
|
|
Faith actually never hit land, went about 500 miles east of Florida and does have the distinction of maintaining tropical characteristics as it rode the Gulf Stream almost all the way to Norway. At least Cat 4 as I remember while east of Fl.
That map was confusing---take a look at s...
sc
|
recmod
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
|
|
Actually, the storm that Steve referred to as clipping by the keys on its way to Mexico was Hurricane Inez, not Faith
--Lou
|
Steve-unplugged
Unregistered
|
|
Thanks y'all. I was using Weather Underground's maps because they were the most convenient (though confusing).
Steve
|
LI Phil
User
Reged:
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
|
|
Unysis usually has the best maps. Wunderground is easy, though.
Anyone think we're gonna get a May TS? ala Ana (albeit Ana formed in April) June storm? Or first TS in July? Hey Steve, start a poll
--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
|
JustMe
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 128
Loc: Orlando, Florida
|
|
I am thinking end of June around the 29th for the first tropical storm
I think wiith the waters warm as they are now that it is the best for late June. we will see..
Just a few days till the start ..
HI everyone..
--------------------
I have survived Betsy Miss, Camille Miss., Andrew Fl, Charley Fl, Frances FL, Jeanne FL,
|
Spike
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 221
Loc: Central, Florida
|
|
I'm hoping we have a good season this year. I will be watching for the formation of storms in these up coming months, during the start of the season and yes justme we can only wait and see what this new season brings us 
--------------------
Patrick
God Bless America
Be proud of your Country!
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
Edit
Reply
Quote
