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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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HanKFranK
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
subtropics
      #14246 - Fri May 07 2004 01:42 PM

may rarely provides a tropical cyclone, and most of those will result from a subtropical hybrid-type system (except late in the month when the gulf and western caribbean will occasionally support activity). globals have a deep layer low cutting off east of bermuda near 50w (the system is splitting away from a larger trough near bermuda right now).. mrf nudges it east, euro stalls it and maintains it for a few days. SSTs in the area are in the low to mid 70s, but it probably merits an occasional glance.
good to see steve dropping by, giving a summary of the bastardi scoop. has me thinking some. bastardi and the agencies/gray are generally in agreement on past analogs. personally i've been envisioning a less profound version of 1990 (pattern, not activity).. and combining it with those late 90s/early 00s seasons.. what comes out is an active year where the gate is mostly closed, but occasionally opens near the east coast.. and carib/gulf activity gets booted westward. still going to stand by 11/6/3, though i really expect i've bid low. one other factoid will help us balance the equation.. the ITCZ. it was at unusually low latitude when the south atlantic activity occurred--have a feeling it's going to probably play possum and act weird during some part of the upcoming season. MJO will undoubtedly control when it becomes productive. also expect a goodly number of systems to pop out of the subtropics.. probably not much starting in the caribbean except maybe late season. maybe unimaginative.. when specific patterns can be resolved (mid-latitude trough-ridge wavelengths are long, slowly progressive for now).. i'll try and come up with something. if this pattern persists into summer it will make for fairly predictable longtrackers, and lots of those systems than hang and fester near frontal tails.
HF 1938z07may


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summercyclone
Unregistered




ANOTHER S. ATL storm threatens Brazil
      #14251 - Fri May 07 2004 03:06 PM

A friend of mine showed me an article today---I think in Yahoo (I haven't had time to look) that says another storm is threatening Brazil. It is a 55kt storm, tropical, and is 'not as bad as the last one' according to Brazilian authorities.

On line today..!!!!

sc


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LI Phil
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Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: ANOTHER S. ATL storm threatens Brazil
      #14252 - Fri May 07 2004 03:37 PM

Here's a link to that Brazilian storm:

Brazilian Storm

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

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"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"

Edited by LI Phil (Fri May 07 2004 03:41 PM)


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Re: ANOTHER S. ATL storm threatens Brazil
      #14256 - Fri May 07 2004 04:49 PM

What's going on HF? Nice analysis. I'm thinking this is a fish spinner, NW FL, South Texas/Mexico year overall with maybe one TS or H making its way toward either LA, MS or AL. I gotta do a whole lot more research in the next 3 weeks, but one thing that stands out is the -3+ SSTA's across most of the Gulf. Should that remain, the window definitely won't be open for anything really strong, but I wouldn't rule out a 2 or 3. Joe B's comments were wholly based on an El Nino NOT developing because if one did, then it could have major implications. I read a Dericho post over at storm 2 k where the possibilities of the twin systems in the Indian Ocean could portend and onset of El Nino at some point (assuming the possibility of twin systems to follow in the west pac). I didn't read the entirety of the position papers, and Cycloneye's response "so you're saying it might be 7 months down the line" seemed much more reasonable based on current Pacific water temperature profiles.

Anyway, with a ST Trof hanging between 90-100 again and with the splits near the east coast backing their way into the Gulf, they can be activated by waves coming through (as we have seen before many times). So I'm not yet ready to predict a dud year for the Gulf overall, but I gotta think there's no way to sustain the level of activity from 2002 and 2003.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
Poll=When and where Alex will form
      #14257 - Fri May 07 2004 06:42 PM

Ok I am making this poll to see what the members think about when and where the first storm will form.

I will say that Alex will form by late June in the western caribbean.

Hey Steve I agree with you that the GOM will not be as active as the past 2 seasons but time will tell.



--------------------
My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Poll=When and where Alex will form
      #14259 - Fri May 07 2004 09:39 PM

This post is not based on meterology (as if any of mine are)...but I'll postulate that we have our first TS by June 10. And Alex will form somewhere in the GOM. HF, Steve, Frank P., JK et al, want to take a shot at our first??? I'll probably be two weeks early, but with the cold tongue, possible La Nina and the high early season SSTs, I'll wager we get an early season TS in the GOM/Carribbean this season. BTW, who's gonna be the first to 'graduate' from "Weather Master" to "Storm Chaser" (700 Posts)?...Glad to see so many on line this early, should be a great season

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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HanKFranK
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Reged: Mon
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Re: Poll=When and where Alex will form
      #14260 - Sat May 08 2004 04:02 PM

how about may 9th east of bermuda? i don't really believe that, but there is an interesting (if unfounded and likely laughable) idea in my head at the moment. i don't know a whole lot about cross-equatorial MJO induced twin cyclones, but at this time there is a pair in the indian ocean (23s, and 01a). it struck me that two potential hybrid-type systems are in the atlantic at this time. now, neither is near the equator (east of bermuda an occluded low, hybrid system near the southern brazilian coast).. but the similar longitude placement of these features at the same time an equatorial pair are on an MJO pulse in the indian ocean is striking. the system in the south atlantic.. i checked the back story a little. cnn.com had a story on it may 6, vague on its tropical nature, and yahoo had that posted ap article. i looked at ghcc satelite shots from may 5-7.. it doesn't make a good case for a tropical cyclone.. however today it is starting to. now, its the equivalent of november down there, SSTs are cooler, and the system has a hybrid nature i doubt it can shake.. as does the low in the atlantic. i don't know exactly how either will evolve (the altantic system, though currently cut off, is likely to interact with an approaching front).. but i am going to surmise that they will both parrot each other, just out of pure interest. so, if that SA system starts looking tropical, the one east of bermuda should too.. and verse vica.
there are the resources at the unisys archive necessary to look up recent examples of cross-equatorial twins (the recent 2002 triumvirate of pairs, i know of already). maybe i'll take some time and see what i can dig up. 2002 was an el nino year, but a fairly active one. i don't see an el nino taking shape this fall.. though 2002 may be a worthy addition as an analog. in spite of el nino it stayed dry here in the southeast.. like it looks to be headed right now.
i'll totally blow my chances at getting the poll target date right, but here goes: sunday, may 9th.
HF 2101z08may


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Steve Hirschberg
Unregistered




Re: Poll=When and where Alex will form
      #14261 - Sun May 09 2004 11:36 AM

Think if we have an early storm, it will be in the western Caribbean. With strong high in place in the western Atlantic and models showing low pressure north of Panama, this is the area to watch. BTW, the GOM will get plenty warm in the next month, so I wouldn't worry about that. Warmring is beginning to occur there now, and its spreading north. Cheers!!

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HanKFranK
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Reged: Mon
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nah
      #14263 - Sun May 09 2004 10:22 PM

nothing doing. it's trying, but water is too cool.. mid latitude shortwaves driving the train. of course, this happens in june and we get us a system.
itcz is down around 5N, no waves to speak of perking up along it. interesting to note that SSTs off the peruvian coast near the galapagos are still trending downward.. more pronounced than the broad area of weakly warm surface waters in nino 3/4.
dont make anything out of the cool gulf. that can change in a couple of weeks, and probably will. summer is close now.
HF 0321z10may


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Steve-up
Unregistered




Re: nah
      #14264 - Mon May 10 2004 12:53 AM

Phil,

I had a little more time to check out the Hurricane Alley link. They have my area as a high risk based on the 80% of 32 variable analogs. If the link works:

http://hurricanealley.net/images/region7landcty.jpg

That's "Region 7"

These are the historicals from the analogs

http://hurricanealley.net/impactreg7.html

I don't know that I agree, but like everyone else, I'm always looking for a little action. As far as the other regions I clicked on, they have Long Island as a moderate risk, and NE of Halifax as "high". The hotlink for Region 4 (coastal NC) was inactive.

Steve


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Steve
      #14265 - Mon May 10 2004 10:36 AM

Steve,

Yeah, they've SLOWLY been updating their regions. Last week my region wasn't up but it is now. Outer Banks (Region 4) still not up. I'm not sure I agree with their progs either, but time will tell. TSR is supposed to be putting out their May predictions today, but as of 10:30, they weren't up either. Will keep on that. Cheers, Phil

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Re: Steve
      #14267 - Mon May 10 2004 12:19 PM

I'm assuming they'd have the Outer Banks as a "high risk" which is probably legit year after year. Let me know when they update that sector and I'll check it out.

For HF:

Joe B mentioned that he's expecting another early surge of tropical moisture heading up from the S/SSE in early June. He busted on that forecast last year when the moisture that came up twice ended up only being a deep surge rather than anything organized. He noted that the Canadian is already hinting at such, but he doesn't expect anything for now (just the way the pattern is starting to look).

Steve

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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Steve
      #14268 - Mon May 10 2004 12:44 PM

Steve,

Just checked again at 12:45 and still no update. Question: They don't list the area from SC/GA or FLA at all. I'd assume those would have to be regions 5 & 6...think that'll come at a later date? Very surprising they're not listed, unless they're saving those areas for last.

Phil

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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GaryC
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 109
Re: Steve
      #14269 - Mon May 10 2004 12:47 PM

I think we will get our first storm in the bahamma's around june 26th. Thats my wedding date and we are going from here in JAX to the bahamma's. It would be my luck too.

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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
Phil
      #14270 - Mon May 10 2004 03:22 PM

I checked that site and no update yet as of 3:20 PM EDT.Well maybe TSR will not update today but tommorow but I always wait for them to see what they say about the season ahead..

--------------------
My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3


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lois
Unregistered




check out SW carib and yucatan
      #14271 - Mon May 10 2004 04:01 PM

colorful

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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
Re: check out SW carib and yucatan
      #14272 - Mon May 10 2004 04:28 PM

That may be the first tropical wave of the year down there near Costa Rica and Panama.

--------------------
My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: check out SW carib and yucatan
      #14273 - Mon May 10 2004 05:02 PM

Still no updates maybe tomorrow. That wave in the SW Carib & Yucatan looks like it's dissipating. Anyone with more experience agree/disagree? Check it out:

carib wave

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: subtropics
      #14274 - Mon May 10 2004 10:14 PM

Still no update from TSR, however, NOAA does have an ENSO update. Here is a link to a global SST loop. Let the loop continue to run and eventually a slide-show type of update should appear. It indicates neutral conditions for three more months. My own thoughts are that neutral ENSO will exist at least through October - thus having no impact one way or another on the upcoming tropical Atlantic season (although I'm sure that other factors will). Notice that the SST anomalies are below normal over the entire GOM and that this has happened in just the last couple of weeks. Also just about the entire north Atlantic anomaly has gone from slightly positive to zero in the same time period - interesting.
I'll try to give some thoughts to analog years in a new main page article this weekend.

Global SST Animation

Oh, and to throw my (tropical storm force) WAG into the wind, I'll pick July 31st (plus or minus one week) for Alex.
Cheers,
ED


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Steve-UP
Unregistered




Re: subtropics
      #14275 - Mon May 10 2004 10:23 PM

Ed,

>>thus having no impact one way or another on the upcoming tropical Atlantic season

Id' have to disagree. As we get more data, I think whatever phase we're in (waxing/waning) of whatever condition (el nino/neutral/la nina) has an effect. But if you meant a surpressing effect or increased westerlies coming in from the EPAC, then I'd agree.

Steve


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