Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Loc: Melbourne, FL
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I really meant no supressing (or enhancing) effect from an El Nino / La Nina point of view over the season as a whole. Other factors would determine total basin activity with no real seasonal influence (positive or negative) from equatorial Pacific SSTs. A weak El Nino may eventually kick in, but probably not until October - or later.
ED
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LI Phil
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One day late, but now online, the TSR forecast:
TSR
Numbers slightly down from April's forecast, but still predicting an above-average season.
Only (  ) 20 days till the 2004 season starts.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
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"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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LI Phil
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If anyone hasn't yet checked out this site, it's pretty schweet. Developed by Dr. Gray & Colorado State Professor Phil Klotzbach, the Web page is strictly an exercise in statistics, and is inexact, said Klotzbach, who created it in conjunction with Colorado State and Bridgewater State College in Massachusetts. It simply takes the box score of storms striking an area over the 20th century, divides it by the number of years, and tweaks it by the 2004 forecast. The Texas-to-Maine coastline is split into 11 regions and 96 subregions. All counties in a subregion get the same odds.
Something to look at during the down time...
Hurricane Strike Map
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
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"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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LI Phil
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Steve,
Region 4 has now been updated on Hurricane Alley. Surprisingly, it's only rated as "Moderate" rather than "High" in terms of impact...very strange indeed
Outer Banks
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
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"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Loc: Central Florida
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i saw an interesting satellite image looking through the archives of 2000
http://cdo.ncdc.noaa.gov/GOESBrowser/goesbrowser
set date at oct 4 2000
scroll down and click East ir 00:00
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Metairie, LA
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Nice pre-hurricane season week down here in the Gulf South. It flooded about 2 miles away from me on Monday. It also flooded heavily between Slidell and Lacombe. They got 16" in Poydras (St. Bernard Parish) on Tuesday. Lafayette area got tons of rain today, and we're in the middle of a real-deal flash flood warning now. A tornado was reported near the airport around 7:30 (7 miles west), so they issued that, then a STW now a flash flood warning. I put something up on Jimw's board about it, but in May, sometimes the fronts and upper features don't have a push through my area. My streets are flooded, but the cars are okay for now. We'll watch and party.
Peace,
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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LI Phil
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Saw the terrible (?) weather you're having. I guess as long as you're actually not hit by a tornado it's probably very cool  . Anyhoo, just exactly where is Old Metairie in relation to the coast? I have a US Atlas, but I can't seem to find it...I know that a lot of LA is swampland and that NO is constantly under the threat of floods, due to it's elevation, or lack thereof...Just wondering. BTW, I'm about 9 miles from the coast, so my biggest fear in a hurric is downed trees and lost power (ala Gloria 1985) than surge. Enjoy your weather party 
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
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"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
Edited by LI Phil (Thu May 13 2004 02:29 PM)
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Metairie, LA
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Old Metairie is what they call the south-eastern portion of my unincorporated area. If you find City Park Ave. in New Orleans, it turns into Metairie Rd. (aka Old Metairie Rd.). Metairie Road cruises through OM.
And yeah, it was more fun than terrible. I cleaned the storm drains out in the middle. Lightning for over 2 hours and rain for over 4. The only suck thing was that I ran out of booze (= unprepared).
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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LI Phil
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Steve, Thx! Ed will probably delete this post as off-topic, but ya gotta keep that bottle o'Johnny Walker Blue stashed for just such an occasion. We had a bout of t-storms here yesterday (and probably again today), but nothing to write home about. Keep your storm drains clear and your eyes to the gulf 
PS> Just found it on the map. 'bout 5 miles away from Tulane, no?
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
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"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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LI Phil
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Don't know if you saw these, but Hurricane Alley has your area at High Risk for a landfalling hurric for August, Sept. & Oct., and for July, low risk. Rest up, looks like you may have a loooonnnnnngggg summer/fall ahead.
august september october
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
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"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Loc: Central Florida
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in the past months before hurricane season, i have done an extensive satellite analysis of the last 7 years, in order to see if i should make any changes to my forecast. Well once again, i found something very questionable--of the two cloud masses at about 20 north, why was the western one classified as Grace? it appeared poorly organized and less tropical than the eastern system, and Grace had no easily detectable center
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Rabbit
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Loc: Central Florida
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the first image didnt seem to attach
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LI Phil
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Here's yet another Hurricane Prediction Site, Weather Research Center. Somewhat interesting predictions, and they claim to have a better prediction record than Dr. Gray. They call for a 60% chance for a Hurricane or TS along the Texas coast, while giving a 70% chance for a Florida West Coast strike. Also, they only call for seven named storms, with 4 becoming hurricanes--3 of which will make US landfall. Also, they're calling for a 60% chance for CAT 3 or higher.
wxresearch
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
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javlin
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Loc: Biloxi,MS
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Interesting read there Phil.I think our shortage of rain is over for awhile down here.The wind was coming a good 20 mph yesterday of the GOM water was maybe 18>24 inches under the peers.Parts of 90 in the Pass area were under.
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Metairie, LA
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Here's a note from Joe B for any fans who haven't signed up for the 30 day free trial yet. He's going to post his landfall intensity forecast sometime in mid-June but promised a sneak peak at the end of the month, "The May hurricane discussion will give you enough of an idea of what we are looking at to understand the kind of season it will be in general terms as far as landfall activity goes. The current thinking is for more than the normal intensity rating on my scale ( the explanation is available on last years forecast for this) with focus of greatest threat of a major hurricane on the gulf coast or Florida, rather than the Carolinas as last year. But that is a thumbnail sketch and the painting has yet to be completed. "
I don't know where I stand yet. A lot of different respectable weather sources are pointing in a lot of different directions. You want to take the path of least resistance, but I'm still hung up on Atlantic H2O temp profiles, whether or not we are in for primarily a negative or positive NAO and/or this year. While blowing some of the numbers (getting semi-close), I've done pretty good with landfalls the last few years. I've got a feeling I'll be dumbed back down to rank amateur after this season! But I will take the leap of faith before June 1st!
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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LI Phil
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Like Steve, I'm not really sure how this season is going to play out. For now, I'll stick with my 14/8/3, as so far, many signs are pointing towards an active season. I may be high (no pun intended) on the number of named storms, but right now I'm fairly confident on the number of hurricanes and intense canes. While they certainly posess greater knowledge than I, I believe wxresearch.com is too low with their call for only 7 named storms. With still half a month until the official season starts, things are beginning to become a bit clearer. Interesting that Joe B. has the GOM and FLA as a more likely target than the rest of the EC. Other sites are opining that as well. Will be interesting to see if that actually plays out.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
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"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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HanKFranK
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notable only because it keeps recurring... is developing low pressure in the western caribbean and surging the energy out to the northeast in the 8-14 day range.. this feature has appeared on several runs. too far out to take seriously, added to that fact that it is may. also of note the model weakens the subtropical jet and draws the northward near its early summer position.
i'm not sure how much creedence this model output deserves, but it will keep me glancing at the western caribbean around the end of next week, and watching for those seasonal pattern modifications.
interesting that one of the two areas running way behind for hurricane strikes (big bend/florida west coast, charleston to melbourne) has a bastardi bullseye on it. area is vulnerable most of the season, just has had candidates from its potential threat source region pushed too far east or west in recent years.
eastpac season kick off tomorrow. probably nothing doing through next week though.
HF 1637z14may
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Steve
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UK Met and Canadian have been showing similar impulses too HF. May be just the sign that there will be a buildup of heat in the area sometime in the next few weeks. I never was good with statistics and complicated forumlas.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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LI Phil
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While researching hurricane mitigation, I came across this bit of information, from Dr. Gray. I found it quite interesting:
"Indeed, there is strong evidence that intense hurricane formation is cyclic, with a periodicity of approximately twenty years (Gray, 1990). In his paper "Strong Association Between West African Rainfall and U.S. Landfall of Intense Hurricanes," Gray presents evidence that there is a high positive correlation between rainfall in the West African Sahel and the incidence of intense hurricanes making landfall along the U.S. East Eoast. Gray found that during periods of West African Sahel drought there are few intense hurricanes making U.S. East Coast landfalls, while during rainy periods in the Sahel a greater number of intense hurricanes make U.S. East Coast landfall. The increased Sahel rainfall produces slow-moving squall systems called easterly waves that act as triggers for hurricane formation.
The frequency of intense Atlantic hurricanes doubles during periods of Sahel rainfall. Gray documents that the average number of intense Atlantic hurricanes per year went from approximately 1.5 per year during dry periods to approximately three per year during wet periods. Viewed another way, the number of intense hurricane days increased significantly during wet periods: the number of intense hurricane days was four times greater than during dry periods. This implies that not only are there more intense Atlantic hurricanes during Sahel wet periods, but also that these intense hurricanes are longer-lived."
Does anyone know about this and if so, how might one go about finding whether the Sahel is in (or will be in) a wet period?
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Metairie, LA
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Only data through 2002
Global Precipitation Time Series
June-July-August 4 Month Lead Time Precip Forecast
NCEP Search = "Sahel"
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