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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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javlin
Weather Master


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Loc: Biloxi,MS
Re: For Phil...
      #14669 - Fri May 28 2004 02:32 AM

Good read Steve more thought than I can definitely conjure up.I am still limited in large part to only looking at days of thought not a whole season yet.If you are right we will really have an interesting season on hand.

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LI Phil
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DR/Haiti floods
      #14670 - Fri May 28 2004 02:58 AM

Am watching TWC right now, Cantore on...he's just saying that the death toll from the DR/Haiti storm this past week is OVER 2,000 . The most since Mitch in '98. Poor bastards...they never knew what was coming. Hopefully the USA can do something to get better radars and early warnings to the folks on Hispaniola. Right now the heartland has some serious twisters to deal with. One last thing...

The day after tomorrow. I will go see it, if only for the special effects. I don't believe we'll be seeing 200' waves engulfing the Statue of Liberty anytime soon, but I don't think it's totally out of the realm of possibility at some point in the future. If anyone is interested, I'll post a link to a "future armegeddon scenario" involving the volcano at La Playa in the Canary Islands, which some forecast will bring about a whole world of s--- at some point in the future. Let me know.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


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My thoughts on Steve, Li Phil, Cyclone and Ed
      #14671 - Fri May 28 2004 03:44 AM

First off...

Thank you Steve for that wonderfully written discussion on the 2004 hurricane season. I enjoyed it a lot... immensely. Well done.

And, may I say in general regarding Joe B who I have watched and read a lot in the past. I enjoy you giving over Bastardi more than I actually enjoy Bastardi. It's easier, more amusing and you give good commentary. You are like my yellow highlighter ...highlighting what is sometimes a long wordy discussion that I don't always have the time or mindset to work my way through. I mean sometimes you get distracted at work...ya know? Seriously... thank you for giving over your thoughts and letting me know when I should stop and take a look at JB's thoughts and looking deeper into the sats than my normal staring at the water vapor loop.

Phil.. you are funny.

Thanks for not removing that line on NASCAR... took me a bit (feel real blonde here) to figure out what was so funny, long day and cracked up... some people just never learn when not to open their mouth and put their foot in it lol... well nice to know he knows the importance of NASCAR fans... just wait to see what he might say to us weather fanatics.. or whatever we call ourselves.

yes... I check at work ... I check at home, I check before i say my nightly prayers lol and giggling before I check my bank balance. Thank God Wachovia uses such different colors from flhurricane.com.

Thank you Cyclone where ever you are and you know which cyclone I am refering to because I know you are still around for forcing me to use flhurricane and Hurric for having patience waiting for me to figure out the way to use it.


Thank you SNONUT for being SNONUT and for you all to keep his link here on your HOSTED links.. like a warm safe security blanket I like knowing its here.

And..........thank you Ed... for hanging in there.

my own thoughts ...was going to go with 13-8-3 as it seems the popular numbers to use but I'm going with 14-8-3.

May I say though... I hate this game we all play or you guys play more... because the power is not in our hands and we don't make the name game rules and one thing I will agree with dear joe about is... that I think there should be better across the board rules for naming systems.

I mean... Earl gets as much attention as Opal and yet other times perfectly formed depressions out in the Atlantic way past the "lets go take a plane out there" line exists for two whole days perfectly formed before hitting a cooler pocket of water and some shear east of the leeward islands and it doesnt get named. But we know it was a system and deserved a name more than say Earl but it wasn't stuck like a bull in the china shop Gulf and wasnt about to come across the mason dixie line of brownsville texas where storms suddenly become depressions or get names one advisory short of landfall ...

So...how many times does someone call the right number in theory and in agreement here online and am sure elsewhere in govt offices where people didn't get a chance to vote or make the call on whether some system got a name or depression status and others didn't.

I mean we are talking about government bureaucracy and people they have to answer to as well... WE don't have to answer to anyone but ourselves here online.. they do.

Issue a watch or a warning or a high wind warning when some storm is nearby..its there call and the buck stops there. And, name a system based on satellite imagery as opposed to waiting for it to stick around long enough and have hurricane hunters try to find a closed circulation. How many times have we watched quickscat, visible and yet no one could find a west wind? And, that system didn't get a name and yet..it was there..

So.. the number game is sometimes won and lost on technicalities... like one more trip into a storm and finding the second center had lower pressure than the first area they were checking out or that storm they "found" in the Azores late in the year in 1997. And, if a tree falls in a forest and no one was there..not even a minicam to see it ..did it happen?

And, it may be that the worse loss of life and property this year was from an unnamed system that got over 200 post on this board and killed possibly 2000 people but never got a name.. will not be figured in to our 13-8-3 figures. See what I mean?

But................as always, I'll play along and I'll go with 14-8-3 because I think we will see a lot of storms.. and want to go to at least the N letter before stopping and because I think there will be alot of storms....think upwelling and other factors may limit the intense number to 3 ...

Think this year is a lot like 1966, 1926 even in ways... 1998 (strong highs) and 1996 in recent years... just my feeling undecided on 61.

So..........thanks for making this place one of the most enjoyable ones around. I check and like hurricanecity.com alot so hello Jim if you are reading this and not sure if I will check other boards as much this year. Will see how the year plays out and Steve... may stick with looking for your highlights if that's okay with you and sometime in August probably sign up for Joe B... time will tell.


Bobbi AKA Lois

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


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Loc: South Florida
ps..correction 14-9-3
      #14672 - Fri May 28 2004 03:52 AM

going to bed, really
not even checking again
make the blue skies go away..stuck in miami in high weather hell and its way too hot and dry to be late May

ok..14-9-3 is what I meant and post the Las Palmas scnario please..

thanks bobbi


--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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LI Phil
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Re: My thoughts on Steve, Li Phil, Cyclone and Ed
      #14673 - Fri May 28 2004 04:06 AM

Bobbi, that was one heckuva post! I don't really think I'm funny, but thx for the kind words. I really fancy myself more in the Steven Wright mold than the (insert hot comic name here) mold. You know who are funny? Dennis Miller and Denis Leary...that's who.

Anyhoo, I didn't realize until today that C-eye is one of the top dogz at Storm2K...I may have to start posting there. Shout out to the man C-I.

Back to the WEATHER...TWC, who must be getting some residuals from "The Day After Tomorrow", has been running some killer Storm Stories this week.
As for that "mega-tsunami" I alluded to earlier...here's just one link (there are better and more detailed one, I'm just too out of it right now to post). There are two schools of thought...one is that this will happen, it's just a question of when..and the other that it will NEVER happen.

Still could get real ugly if it were ever to happen.

armageddon

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"

Edited by Ed Dunham (Fri May 28 2004 10:40 AM)


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LI Phil
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That Mega Tsunami....
      #14674 - Fri May 28 2004 04:45 AM

Here's a better link. If you buy into the theories, FLA could be wiped out in like 6 hours. Personally, I'm more of a pragmatist and don't believe this will ever happen...but

One never know, do one? As an FYI, all the noted Tsunami "experts" discount all these doomsday theories, but they're still "fun?" to check out,

future hell

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Re: That Mega Tsunami....
      #14675 - Fri May 28 2004 05:07 AM

Enjoyed the post Bobbi. I have a handle on some things, but I just made up the landfall forecast based on what I read from everyone else. It's only done for fun and is more of an afterthought (unless I get lucky with it). Guys like Rob and Jason/TWW with associate Kevin are the internet guys doing the hardcore research. Jimw and Barometer Bob too. You can never have too much information, and you can never run out of thanks for the guys who do all that work.

As for JB, the only thing to look out for in the nearterm is he said that after he published his summer forecast, he was going to do a hurricane season video mid-week next. He isn't going to do the landfall intensity forecast yet because he's waiting for June data that he feels he's got to have, but lots of hints would be found. And we've got Dr. Gray tomorrow.

>>Anyhoo, I didn't realize until today that C-eye is one of the top dogz at Storm2K...

Yeah. S2K is an awesome site. They have a lot of professional mets and some of the best amateurs on the web (guys like Stormsfury, TWW & Barometer Bob). That's my second favorite weather forum (= home away from home).

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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James88
Weather Master


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Dr Gray's Forecast
      #14676 - Fri May 28 2004 06:21 AM

Dr Gray's forecast is unchanged from April. He foresees 14 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.

Here are the figures:-

Forecast Parameter and
1950-2000 Climatology (in parentheses) Issue Date
28 May
Named Storms (NS) (9.6) 14
Named Storm Days (NSD) (49.1) 60
Hurricanes (H)(5.9) 8
Hurricane Days (HD)(24.5) 35
Intense Hurricanes (IH) (2.3) 3
Intense Hurricane Days (IHD)(5.0) 8
Hurricane Destruction Potential (HDP) (72.7) 100
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC)(100%) 145





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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker


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Re: My thoughts on Steve, Li Phil, Cyclone and Ed
      #14677 - Fri May 28 2004 10:35 AM

Phil I am one of the moderators over there and I can tell you that the discussions about the tropics are good as they are in CFHC so pay a visit and see by yourself and after you see it register because you will have another forum to discuss the tropics as in here we do.

About what Dr Gray and his new outlook well nothing new really as he sees an active season with the same numbers as in april.Interesting the landfall probabilities and the analog years that he points out but time will tell in reality how the season pans out.

I saw the Day After Tommorow and the special effects are spectacular and that is why for the most part I saw it.

--------------------
My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3

Edited by Cycloneye (Fri May 28 2004 11:47 AM)


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LI Phil
User


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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
For C-Eye
      #14678 - Fri May 28 2004 02:18 PM

Yeah, think I will pop on over to S2K. I've heard the special effects in TDAT are spectacular, and for that I'll watch it, but I heard the story is as cornball as Hollywood gets. Maybe everyone on this board should see it and write a review (in a different forum, o'course).

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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LI Phil
User


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Mega Tsunami
      #14679 - Fri May 28 2004 03:20 PM

OK, here's the original research paper on the future La Palma eruption. It's what generated all the buzz.

La Palma Paper

BTW, another EPAC invest is up

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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summercyclone
Unregistered




SW Caribbean
      #14682 - Sat May 29 2004 05:39 PM

Very interesting this am......some models had suggested this earlier this week.....there have been a few years when the first storm of the year formed over Memorial Day (at least as a depression)...shear is lifting out, looks like a circulation trying to spin up...

sc


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: SW Caribbean
      #14683 - Sat May 29 2004 05:48 PM

SW Caribbean looks pretty interesting this afternoon. However, it looks like it is headed right for land and then most likely into the Pacific. Nice spin there,though.

ShawnS


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HanKFranK
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Re: SW Caribbean
      #14684 - Sat May 29 2004 06:34 PM

looks like a mesovortex left when a convective burst ended. there's a general low pressure in the area, but the trades are pushing any ITCZ vorticity right along into central america. as far as models liking a situation.. look further east to the wave near trinidad.. that's got more potential. for next week.
eastpac invest is progressing slowly.. easterly shear aloft will have to simmer down a bit. probably make more progress late sunday into monday.. if it can get to the SW quadrant of the upper ridge to the north. blas perhaps early next week.
HF 1834z29may


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javlin
Weather Master


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Loc: Biloxi,MS
Re: SW Caribbean
      #14685 - Sat May 29 2004 08:26 PM

Looks to be heading WNW or NW looking at the VS seems to be something at the surface or tring. Like the rest though probably hit land first.Interesting the amount of potentials in the Atlantic basin thus far.

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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


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Loc: Metairie, LA
Re: SW Caribbean
      #14686 - Sun May 30 2004 02:07 AM

May ENSO forecasts are out now. Looks like the majority of the models see "NEUTRAL" through October, trending El Nino thereafter. They've been similar for many months.

The Models

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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


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Re: SW Caribbean
      #14687 - Sun May 30 2004 02:10 AM

One thing about March-June, that is the weakest statistical time for modeled El Nino predictions. I don't know the details, but I've read some mets around th web who explained it.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


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hey steve and all
      #14688 - Sun May 30 2004 05:09 AM

hi... watching the radar in the plains... what can you say when there's more tropical moisture in kansas than south florida?

where is the rainy season and who or what is holding it hostage?

did it rain today over gitmo? i mean its a desert.. ya know

yes... i want rain.

my thoughts on season are as follows..

think years to be looked at are as follows..

1928, 1966, 1996 1998 as well
some year in 1940s but been looking at tracks for a long time tonight and i get those great 40s years mixed up but want to say 47...will recheck in the morning

those are my years.. after much research for several reasons..of my own

spent the day earlier reading Gray's report..

really looks like all signs show a strong atlantic hurricane season..

only thing i want to add is that i really think they should study trends in african dust and how it eats up ..sucks up moisture of stong waves and inhibits hurricanes from forming.. or lack of it lets a donna like storm get going and keep going..

it is a major factor in my mind on hurricane development as the season unfolds and the lack of research, discussion and documentation in hurricane forecasts is a wide hole that some fullback sort of storm could just run up the middle ... you dont leave such holes wide open..

if you can take in factors such as sea pressure in finland and salt levels, rainfall in africa and the walker current... i dont see how you ignore something so important as whether or not dust will play a big inhibiting factor or lack of it will provide a better environment for development.. just my five cents

and lastly

if TWC continues showing old old reruns of hurricane Andrew hitting south dade with some old biddy telling the same old story and all they can do is run a scroll on the bottom announcing tornadoes in ok, kansas and a squall line of severe weather from minn to kansas... its pretty pathetic and they should stop calling themself The Weather Channel and start calling themselves the Disovery Channel Want to Be .. ReRun channel.. its a joke

nice to see weather stories but not while there is live breaking wild weather..

my rant for the evening

take care all and pray for rain in florida
bobbi

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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BabyCat
Weather Guru


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Posts: 150
Loc: New Orleans, La.
Re: Around the Corner
      #14689 - Sun May 30 2004 01:36 PM

Tis the beginning of the season. This is the first year in more than I care to admit that I don't have to go shopping for my hurricane supplies.
Hope all stay well...


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James88
Weather Master


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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Re: Around the Corner
      #14690 - Sun May 30 2004 03:21 PM

While the Atlantic season is about to start, the East Pacific one seems to be warming up - there are now 2 invests in the Pacific basin.

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