Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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Ok guys, i will admit i'm not quite the best expert in this field but i have been asking about wind shear over the area and i was given this link, how do you make sense of it? What are the yellow lines and the pink lines with those little arrows?
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"Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get"
- Robert A. Heinlein
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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The yellow lines are measurements of the amount of shear in knots...for instance, just south of Panama City you see a circle of 5 kts...very low amounts of shear. Contrast that with 90kts of shear just north of Puerto Rico....that is a lot.
The pink-orange lines are streamlines...they show what way the wind is blowing...along the lines in the direction of the arrows.
Was that clear? Can I clarify further?
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Jason Kelley
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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yes, thanks Jason. So looking at the region where the disturbance is located, the shear is relatively weak. But to the north the shear is rather strong and is from the west. Is this the reason perhaps why the models are taking the system northeast.
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"Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get"
- Robert A. Heinlein
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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JK, thanks for stepping in. You said in about 2 sentences what would have taken me 10 (and badly, BTW). Referencing one of Jamie's eariler posts, can you give him any quick links for what he's looking for? In fact, the rest of us would probably appreciate them too?
Still glad you didn't fly into Hugo? 
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Bingo...you got it.
My favorite tropical weather data links site is Atlantic Tropical Weather Center . Most everything you would ever need is found there.
I had read that a while back and forgot it...the p-3's fly lower than the USAFR planes...that can cause a more jostled ride.
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Jason Kelley
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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The hurricanealley.net is also particularly useful, as they take the models and translate them into easily identifiable graphical models. current disturbance in central america . Helpful to those of us non-mets who sometimes struggle with the numerical data.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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FSU
OSU
PSU
NOAA
Cheers,
ED
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Ed, you forgot F.U., I.O.U. & WhoRU. Just kidding. Ed & Jason, do you gentlemen think we'll be getting a storm out of the central american system this weekend? Or, at the very least, an invest? Inquiring minds (not mine) want to know.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Now that one was priceless 
I doubt that anything will develop. The area shows no sign of improved development and the shear image really says it all.
Cheers,
ED
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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I dunno...
I think that something will develop down there...but on which side is the issue. Could be an East Pac or a Caribbean TD...
At any rate, conditions are somewhat favorable in a pretty small area, but downright hostile outside that area. We'll see.
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Jason Kelley
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Thx Ed & JK. Someday I'll link both you guys to some fake "Mastercard-Priceless" ads. Steve will be disappointed, but it keeps me in the running for my June 14th-ish call. Have a great evening, and keep your eyes to the sky (or is that skies?).
Peace,
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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so is it just me or does it look like its forming south of the border in the EPac or are there two vortexes down there on either side. Thoughts?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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James88
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Perhaps this system may be developing in the Pacific. It says in the 2:05am TWD that associated deep convection is inland over Costa Rica and in the East Pacific region. Conditions appear fairly favourable, with high SST's and not much shear in the area.
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LONNY307
Unregistered
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The whole time that the models were jumping on the carribean I was thinking not a chance. You don't have to be a weatherman to see the shear. I think the models are just jumping on the monsoon trof. It's that time of year and the pressures will drop down there but nothing ,that I see will form on the carribean side. Maybe the EPAC will have there first storm. It would be great to get an early start but I don't put much emphasis on models just a little guide.
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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have read bits and pieces of ... possible system forming not from convection now currently over pacific but about a possible weak upper low in SW Carib that would connect with the moisture and go warm core
has anyone else heard that
if so can you tell me where to look
thank u
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Hey guys,
just took a look at the latest visible loop from GHCC centred on the convection off the northern coast of Colombia / Venezuela, and there appears to be a circulation currently near 13.2N 72.7W. Convection is strong around this 'centre' especially to the east. The 805AM TWD doesnt indicate a particular feature in this are at any level, but does talk of strong convection. Could this possibly be the low that some models were indicating would develop to the east of the area we were watching yesterday?
Any thoughts?
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Just been looking at the area of very disturbed weather just of the west coast of Africa. It certainly appears very well organised on current visible, infrared, and WV imagery. SST's are only marginal in this region, but CIMSS indicates the system is in an area of relatively weak shear - around 5 knots at 12Z today, and also indicates a circulation may be present too.
Any thoughts on this area too?
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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James88
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Not to get carried away, but is it possible that this could form into something?
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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OK, I spent the better part of an hour on this. A while back I asked Ed if very active EPAC seasons corresponded to strong US mainland landfalls (as he used 1992 as an example of an active EPAC year with relatively little Atlantic activity.) Of course, in 1992 we had Andrew. So I did a little research to see if indeed active EPAC years corresponded to less active Atlantic years, and checked if there were any CAT 3 or above US landfalls. Here's what I found:
Since 1949, there have been 24 seasons where the EPAC has produced at least 15 named systems:
1959 (15 named storms), 1967 (17), 1968 (18), 1970 (19), 1971 (18), 1974 (18), 1975 (15), 1976 (15/5 major canes), 1978 (19/7), 1981 (15), 1982 (20), 1983 (21/8), 1984 (18/6), 1985 (22/8), 1986 (17), 1987 (18), 1989 (17), 1990 (20/6), 1992 (24/9), 1997 (17), 2000 (17), 2001 (15), and 2003 (16).
Checking the Atlantic for those years, I found that in some years there were very few storms, and in others there were a fair amount. I also checked if there were any major US hits, and indeed, there were a couple of years where there were, but by and large, there appears to be no correlation between the two. Here's the corresponding Atl. years, with the number of storms and major US landfallers (these data are from Unysis, so I think the strength at landfall is a tad high, but I'll go with it anyway):
1959 (11/CAT 4 Gracie hits South Carolina); 1967 (8/CAT 4 Beulah hits Tex/Mex border); 1968 (8); 1970 (10/CAT 3 Celia hits South Texas); 1971 (13); 1974 (7/CAT 4 Carmen strikes Louisiana); 1975 (8/CAT 3 Eloise hits Florida Panhandle); 1976 (8); 1978 (11); 1981 (10); 1982 (5); 1983 (4); 1984 (12); 1985 (11/CAT 3 Elena LA/MS border; CAT 3 Gloria Long Island, New England); 1986 (6); 1987 (6); 1989 (11/CAT 4 Hugo hits South Carolina); 1990 (14); 1992 (6/CAT 5 Andrew strikes South Fla.); 1994 (7); 1997 (7); 2000 (14); 2001 (15) and 2003 (16).
So, yes there were some major canes to strike the US when there was elevated EPAC activity, but (I did take statistics in college, but that was a looooooooong time ago), I can't see any true statistical correlation between the two.
And, since there were 11 of the 24 years with at least 10 named storms, there is definitely no overwhelming evidence that active EPAC years correlate to inactive Atlantic ones.
Phew, that was a mouthful. I'm just hoping we get to the next page because this widescreen is killing me.
If anybody wants to check if the years listed above were el nino's, be my guest.
Sorry for the length of this post.
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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scottsvb55
Unregistered
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The tropical wave off of the african coast will die off in the next 12-24 hours as it encounters cool water. Anything generally east of 50w has less then a 5% chance before July.
I never mentioned the Carribean mid level disturbance forming late this weekend into early next week cause the system wont be all at the surface. Questions on calling this truly tropical if it even forms at all. Looking at the posts I will have to agree with fellow mets Jason and ED. Remember last year alot from the models show the same thing coming out of the carribean around this time of year and the models after a week finally gave up on it. I would tend to disregard the models until something does develop. Canadian Model I genenerally disregard the most as it changes from run to run and the has its usual feedback problems.
scottsvb
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