Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
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Hey Phil,
Sorry about the dup post, my bad.
lol
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James88
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Whatever happens with this system, it certainly gives us something to watch. It seems to be holding together some form of organisation, but it remains to be seen how long this will last.
P.S. This system is probably the best chance for your June 14th guess Phil. Who knows - you might get lucky 
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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TG - actually now people won't have to jump to the previous page to view it.
>>> P.S. This system is probably the best chance for your June 14th guess Phil. Who knows - you might get lucky
Well, I am sort of counting on it. I doubt it will develop, for all the reasons listed in past posts. However, I will be watching it...maybe someone can hop on hurricane hunter flight and sprinkle some pixie dust into it
Cheers & Peace,
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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TWO issued at 5:30pm, contains no changes, still states that no development is expected. Also I checked the wind shear analysis and the shear looks to be reasonably weak and forecast to remain so during the next 48 hours. Maybe a circulation could work down to the surface, but now the only inhibitor could be its proximity to land.
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James88
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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That proximity to land is a problem - just give it a couple of days and see what state the system is in when it reaches the open Gulf. Perhaps conditions will become a little more favourable, but as mentioned before, it seems fairly unlikely.
On another note, check out the apparent circulation in the system off the Carolinas.
Hurricane Visible Loop
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Happy birthday to "June C." Just noticed it on the calendar. How did your parents come up with your name?
Cheers & Peace,
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
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http://www.hurricanetrack.com/animation/gfs/18/gfsslp.html
However this is the only model that is showing this interesting loop of a weak low moving thru the deep tropics from the eastern atlantic.I will believe it when I see that low cranking up if it happens because it is early to see things developing from that part of the world.Let's see if other models join the .
Edited by Cycloneye (Thu Jun 10 2004 10:21 PM)
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LONNY307
Unregistered
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GFS.Good.For.S_ _ t. However the AVN takes a low near the Yucatan North to West Panhadle of Florida. The morning Sat is looking interesting near the Yucatan.
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wild cat
Unregistered
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Is that an actual tropical storm or hurricane that would cross Florida or just a low, because it doesnt look very strong on that model.
I thought the wave going all the way across the atlantic was more interesting.
How strong would that low be and do any models this morning show the low again?
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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>>>GFS.Good.For.S_ _ t. Lonny LOL!!!
I guess that's similar to the "MRF" label of "Most Ridiculous Forecast".
I don't have many "high hopes" for development, although this system will surely bring a boatload of rain to the SE gulf coast. Whether it can develop much beyond a deep low is the question. Won't yet write it off, but aren't expecting much strengthening at this moment. Still, gotta be watched.
LI Phil 
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Cocoa Beach
Unregistered
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The "Mother Country" has just launched...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/IR4/20.jpg
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Rob_M
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 60
Loc: Cary, NC
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Just my opinion...but I don't see much potential at all beyond a rainmaker for the south...
IWIC Atlantic Basin Tropical Weather Discussion - 11 June 2004 - 11:10 AM EDT
The most prominent disturbance in the Atlantic Basin today is the mid to upper level low in the northwest Caribbean Sea. Yesterday, the interaction between this upper low and a passing tropical wave generated deep convection, but today the wave has moved well on out of the area and into the eastern Pacific. The upper low has not moved, and the convection that is still present in the northwest Caribbean Sea is thus completely associated with this upper low. Tropical cyclone development cannot occur in this type of situation, as a low pressure needs to be present at the surface and not at the higher altitudes of the troposphere.
The upper low is currently moving slowly northwestward, a track that will take it across the Yucatan Peninsula and into the central Gulf of Mexico in the next 48 hours. No development will occur in this time frame due to the reason we mentioned above and land interaction with the Yucatan Peninsula. Once the low is in the central Gulf of Mexico, it does not look like the potential for development will be that high. First of all, even if a surface low does form underneath as the and show, the upper low will still be above it. This will keep any surface low pressure that develops from becoming purely tropical. Secondly, the system will be moving rather quickly to the north along the western prehiphery of the subtropical ridge, giving it only a limited amount of time to strengthen before it comes ashore between New Orleans and Pensacola in about 96 hours. To add to the problems, a shortwave trough is progged to dip through the southern states towards the second half of the forecast period. This will quickly induce strong southerly shear over the system as it closes in on the coast.
It should be noted that although Allison in 2001 and Bill in 2003 formed in part from an upper low similar to this one, the conditions in this case are not the same as with those 2 storms. For Bill, the upper low that was present when it initially formed quickly faded and gave way to an upper high, which allowed Bill to intensify and transform into a purely tropical system. For both of the storms, conditions were conducive as they approached the coast, which allowed Allison to form and Bill to further intensify. In this system's case, the upper low should stay above any surface low that might form, and the shortwave trough will prevent any last minute intensification or cause weakening before it reaches the coast.
Therefore, the window of opportunity for this to develop is very small, practically non-existent. No development is expected, though it should still spread heavy rains over portions of the south.
Elsewhere, a tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean Sea is being sheared apart by strong westerly winds. Another tropical wave has just exited the coast of Africa with moderate convection. Dry subsidence due to the seasonably southward positioned Azores High and marginally cool ocean temperatures will prevent this or any other waves at this time of the year from developing.
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Rob Mann
IndependentWx.Com
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James88
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Yet another impressive tropical wave. Still a few weeks though before conditions will improve. At this time of the year they get ripped apart as fast as they form. Looks like we'll have to wait until at least next week for anything with potential. Accuweather doesn't expect anything:-
"Tropical waves moving through the Atlantic and Caribbean remain rather disorganized and are unlikely to develop through the weekend."
Wasn't it a year ago today that TD 2 formed? Talk about an active early season!
P.S. - Your potential first storm is actually looking a little healthier at the moment, Phil. The says that storm formation is not expected, but then weather is unpredictable. That's what makes it interesting 
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Bobbi
Unregistered
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Hi, wishing you all a nice weekend. Rest up before the real action happens.
My main concern with the SW Carib or Mid Carib area is that the area keeps firing far from the supposed center to the east of it. If you watch the sats (all of them) you see there is something firing to the east of it and its not being blown off there by shear. Nothing seems to be able to stack regarding a circulation and the eastern area fights the western area in terms of intensity. Not a good sign. Though, things could change down the line when and if it goes somewhere.
Nice wave off Africa, too soon not because its June but because of the position of the high and mostly water temps. They come off nice but the heat isn't high enough.
Enjoy the weekend everyone, Bobbi
may have come off nice but sequel will be "another one bites the dust" though I would love to be proven wrong there
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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>>> P.S. - Your potential first storm is actually looking a little healthier at the moment, Phil. The says that storm formation is not expected, but then weather is unpredictable. That's what makes it interesting
After reading Rob Mann's excellent analysis, I'm not getting my hopes up. The system will probably be just a big rain maker. Still, Allison & Bill formed under similar, though more favorable, conditions.
BTW, I'm being moved to tears over RWR's memorial service. He was a good friend to the Brits, James88, and we can certainly thank him for bringing about the demise of the Evil Empire (no, not the Yankees, the Soviets).
Peace & Cheers,
LI Phil 
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Rob_M
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 60
Loc: Cary, NC
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Yeah, we were all looking at TD2 near 40W at this time last year. Very uncommon to get development that far east so early in the season.
On the subject of this Caribbean disturbance, just shoot me if it develops. My June stats are SOOOO against it LOL. Then again you know how the weather can be.
But in all seriousness, I still don't think this will become anything at all (other than a rainmaker). As long as there's a low pressure in the UPPER levels, we won't be dealing with a purely tropical system. And there is a chance that the upper low will fade away by Day 3...but by then any surface low will be starting to experience strong shear from a shortwave trough. Still bears watching (as with any disturbance) but nothing to get exicted about IMO.
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Rob Mann
IndependentWx.Com
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James88
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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This certainly seems to be one of those years with a slow start to the season - but as others have mentioned we could have a very busy September.
P.S. You're right Phil, it is a very moving service. Even though I'm not an American it is easy to see what an all-round great guy he was. May he rest in peace.
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Carl
Unregistered
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Check out the southwest wind at Minatitlan on the Yucatan Peninsula. http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/EWX/SWRMX
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Carl
Unregistered
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Forget the last post--thought Minatitlan was located on the east coast of the Yucatan, but instead it is on the west coast around 94 degrees, which makes the southwest wind much less significant.
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Rabbit
Weather Master
Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-vis-loop.html
there are two interesting notes on this satellite image:
1) there appears to be a mid-level low forming at about 20N
over the yucatan
2) the southeast section of the western low appears to have
high clouds going to the south, which may be a forming high level anticyclone
remember in 2001, tropical storm barry formed from the interaction of an upper low with a wave
Edited by Rabbit (Fri Jun 11 2004 03:19 PM)
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