James88
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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I have to say, the wave that recently rolled off the coast of Africa still looks fairly impressive, and looks quite organised. It may well fall apart by this evening, but if it holds together...
This one could be interesting.
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BObbi
Unregistered
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hi from orlando, cant talk just wanted to say hi and hope you all are having a good vacation
looking over topics
what about the wave in the atlantic, has nice color on ir
ok..back to vacation
bobbi
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James88
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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The wave looks pretty good on satellite imagery. Check out the curvature present in the convection:-
Tropical Wave
It has emerged into an area of reasonably warm waters:-
Atlantic SSTs
The air is also fairly moist, so it is not as though the wave has moved into an area that is completely unfavourable - it has a few things going for it. Does anyone have any thoughts on the system?
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Kevin
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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Yeah James88, what you're seeing is for real. That wave even looks to have some circulation. Nothing Earth-shattering but it's a pretty decent wave considering we're only on July 5th.
FWIW, I also looked at the 1000mb 372 hour on AWPro. This particular model run actually amplifies some of this convection just before reaching the Caribbean on July 13. Take this for what it is worth...
On another note...the also shows a decrease in shear across most of the Atlantic. The exception to this is the eastern Atlantic, which still has a few patchy areas around 372 hours. This is a long way out, but we should start seeing a decrease in shear towards the end of July if we are indeed going to have the season start up around the climotological norm.
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James88
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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It is a very decent wave considering it is so early in July. If it were early September this system would probably become a CV quite soon.
Thinking about it, a CV storm could form sooner than that. On this day in 1996, Hurricane Bertha formed (although I will admit it didn't reach hurricane status until a couple of days later). Maybe if it holds together for a while longer we'll have an invest. However, that's a big 'if'.
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joepub1
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
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TPC is even looking at that wave coming off of Africa, but they'll play a wait and see for now. No invest as of this morning.
On a local note, we've had 20 inches of rain in the last 34 days in north FL. The second wettest June in history. My yard is going nuts. Pretty soon you'll be able to go from the Gulf to the Atlantic in a boat right across the Georgia-Alabama state lines...... 
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James88
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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"WATER TEMPERATURES AND
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC ARE MARGINAL FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION."
There are plenty of cases of tropical systems forming in marginal conditions. Anyway, conditions should become more favourable as the system moves westward, so if it can hold together and continue to show signs of organisation, we may have something in a few days. This should definately be watched.
It would help if it formed soon because my July 7th guess for first storm would be bang on (hopefully).
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
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http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi
A very interesting wave indeed for this time of the year so far out but it has to fight with enviromental conditions to survive but it is the first wave in that area that really looks somewhat promising.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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Conditions look ok from my perspective, just looked at the shear maps and SST's and it seems as if it might be favorable for some development. However, the way I looked at it conditions to the north of the wave's current location would be a little more hostile. The shear across the eastern Atlantic is forecast to weaken through 48 hours according to Unisys shear forecasts. Seems this one is being watched a little closer, so an invest has been issued.
Lets see what has to say in their 2:05pm TWD
Edited by Jamiewx (Mon Jul 05 2004 01:25 PM)
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James88
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Maybe this could be a candidate for Tropical Depression #1 or perhaps even Alex. I suppose the next 24 hours will be crucial as to whether the system develops into a named entity. Even so, it seems to be holding together a little better than its predecessors (at the moment).
From the satellite image, there even seems to be a tight circulation.
Edited by James88 (Mon Jul 05 2004 01:26 PM)
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Alex K
Unregistered
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Ive never been very good at analyzing upper level winds, so i will try to focus on the water temperatures. It seems that at 10N (the location of our candidate) the waters are warm enough to support a depression or storm. Anyway, I gotta give it a good chance at becoming something, because although it doesnt have much convection, you cant miss the circulation.
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James88
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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All that's needed is for some convection to develop at or near the centre, and we could have the first system of 2004. Maybe the next will reveal the situation. The TWD (which coincidentially changes its format tomorrow) might also provide some useful information.
I agree with you Alex - the SSTs out there seem reasonably favourable to support something.
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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I agree with Alex K on the water temperatures, i think now its over open water, we should wait to see if more convection fires up. Also looked at the water vapor imagery and can't see any dry air that could interfere with further organization just yet.
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James88
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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It is comparatively rare for a tropical system of any description to form this far east in early July. In recent years, this kind of storm tends to become classified about halfway between Africa and the Caribbean. However, weather is unpredictable, and there can usually be an exception to a rule. I wonder what Joe. B has got to say about the invest.
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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Either way, shear will still be light according to forecasts even half way between africa and the caribbean, and SST's look pretty consistent for the whole strech of Atlantic at the wave's current latitude, guess we will see whether or not climatology gets the better of this one.
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James88
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Whatever the case, the invest looks like it could be fairly close to becoming classified. I may be wrong, but then I've seen lots of systems much less impressive than this one become classified. An often quoted example is TD #4 in 2000.
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
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If in the movement to the west it gains convection near the center then it will have a great chance to be the first TD and even Tropical Storm Alex but all the factors have to be there but time will tell.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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Steve Hirschberg
Unregistered
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Having development this far east is unusual, but after viewing the vis loop, there is a nice circulation taking shape. Convection is being enhanced to its west and southwest along the , and a spot to the circulations NW. They don't put invests up for nothing, so there must be potential in their eyes. Heck, we're in the first week in July, so anything in the basin CAN happen, especially considering an anomalously warm Atlantic in many parts. I'm excited (it don't take much) 
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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The link below will provide some more satellite imagery. Take a look at the IR Floater off the coast of Africa, does it look like convection is decreasing slightly?
http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsdsol/TROPICAL.html
by the way 2:05pm TWD, not saying much we didn't already know, just that strong rotation is noted and that tropical cyclone formation has not been known to occur this early in the hurricane season, this far east.
Edited by Jamiewx (Mon Jul 05 2004 02:22 PM)
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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This is Colleen....I have to post as "anonymous" because I can't remember my doggone password..ARGH! 
Hope everyone had a safe and happy 4th of July! We enjoyed ours. We went to the Pepsi 400 in Daytona and got hammered by a severe storm. Ouch! Three guys got hit by lightning by the merchandise trailers, but they all lived to tell about it (how, I don't know) and were even able to go watch the race! Amazing! I guess a better question to ask would be why they were at the merchadise trailers in the first place with that kind of storm going on. It takes all kinds....which my 8-year noticed.  As we were making our way into the racetrack, he noted the following:
"There sure are a lot of drunk people here, Mom! (pauses for a moment)....oh yeah, it's a race!! You're supposed to be drunk! DUH!"
Kids.....they don't miss a trick, eh?
Re: the wave/invest/tpc statement. I thought that there was a year that we had a CV storm early in June, am I insane? I'm sure it fizzled out but I do remember thinking at the time that it would be an active season, and I think it was either last year or the year before. I'm sure someone knows. I'm sure the TPC is "thinking" that this wave has a little potential but not much, but for them to mention it at all speaks for itself. As for marginal conditions...well, who knows what could happen. Maybe this will be a rogue storm. I don't remember Andrew being forecast to be a Cat4-5 or for it to hit south Florida, either. But he did, and the rest is history! Never underestimate Mother Nature. Just when she's got you down for your nap, she comes screaming back into the room to tell you it's time to get up!
It looks like we might see some nasty weather here in Polk County. It looks as though Hillsborough is taking a severe beating at the present moment.
Hope all is okay with Ed. I'm sure we'll hear soon.
Colleen 
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