LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Luis,
You know that stands for "Good For S---" don't you?
Seriously, The African wave train is chugging along, and even if these waves don't develop where they are, they are still making it across the pond. If what was once 95L can make it to the lesser Antilles, I'd say we have a serious candidate for development. even mentioned this possibility.
After a pretty interesting day yesterday, today dampened a lot of "first storm" hopes. The low southeast of Bermuda never got going, and now it probably will keep chugging northeast all the way to England...James & Rich B. keep an eye on that one, will you? The first African wave slammed into South America. Someone earlier thought that the former 95L would play sacrificial lamb for the wave following it. That could easily happen, but I still think 95L could eventyally develop if it can make it fairly intact to the Islands.
If this were mid-August, not early July, we'd be tracking three or four storms simultaneously. I'd be a tad worried about everyone's #s, but Rob (da) Mann predicted it would be a slow start and indeed he and IWIC have been spot on so far (tip of the cap Rob, Jason & Kevin).
I guess we're all Jonesing for that first TD to get cranking, but as Ed has admonished, patience, please. If this one (season) pans out like all the experts expect, we'll have PLENTY to watch and fairly soon, too. Still think ex-95L needs to be watched and (this is purely a guess), if it develops it goes across South Fla & into the GOM.
Peace & Cheers,
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Steve Hirschberg
Unregistered
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95L is still the best candidate out there IMO. Last few loops show convection trying to rebuild from the moisture from the south. Circulation is still quite good. This may be a player down the road. Cheers!!
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: South Florida
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Wondering how this does really affect the Hurricane Season. South Florida is so dry its beyond anything to compare it .. I thought until I came across this article in the Sun Sentinel and I realized ... Nepal's rains are late too.. go figure.
So was wondering if anyone here knows of any other similar situation going on... around the world?
Where else are rainfall patterns off? Monsoons?
Check out Sun-Sentinel.. its a real article....really.. I mean they are running about a month late too... who knew. Bet there's some similarities. Someone call Joe and ask him.
Bobbi 
(additional material removed by Moderator)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Thu Jul 08 2004 02:58 AM)
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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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in a word, yeah. there's potential. as usual the , usually the prime source of ideas, initializes things differently every run.. has less in mind.
former 95L has bravely (insanely?) opted for a northerly track, and is over waters typically below hurricane support threshold. sal is also doing a bit (not a lot) to keep it in check.. the result is a system with decent vorticity, and shallow convection that keeps trying to go. and go it will if there's much of a wave left when it gets near 50w.. 48 hours out. 40%, pending how it does next 2 days.
last night i considered the disturbance near bermuda as the leader candidate.. hasn't really improved though due to a chaotic upper air pattern nearby. there's still a surface trough and some convection, but no part of it seems to be taking off right now. i'll 30% it. the new wave has model enthusiasm but nothing really special about it.
as far as pattern evolution, same basic idea. basin goes more zonal, with pulses on the and ridge cells.. a trough-splitting pattern after a fashion, with retarded progression in the mid-latitudes in spite of a fairly flat flow. down the road continues to suggest development threats, out past mid-month. things not as imminent as i thought last night (gunjumper oh yes i am), but more than likely still going to happen.
HF 0157z08july
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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
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Hey Bobbi, i've been wondering too where the daily rains that we usually have down here are. I'ts been drier than the Sahara here near the coast in Broward, but out west in the glades, I do see the clouds and storms, it's just that the upper-leve winds aren't pushing them east towards the coast.
Maybe all of us South Fla 'ers need to get a rain dance going like in Nepal ! (lol)
AJ
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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TG & Bobbi,
Every time I look at a satellite loop, it appears as tho S Fla is getting the usual popcorn t-boomers, guess you guys aren't getting them...strange.
I'm guessing Bobbi's post about the Nepalese women will last until Ed checks in later tonight.
Bobbi, I'm losing patience too, but if we can sacrifice one week now for three awesome tracking weeks doen the road, I'll gladly do it. Alex will form...soon...I hope
HF, of course great post..as usual. I believe you're next up with a 7/11 call for "first storm".
Cheers,
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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h2ocean
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 91
Loc: South Merritt Island, FL
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Check out the below link...there is certainly some circulation to this....the question remains - will convection develop near the center?
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html
...and from the 8pm Tropical Discussion...
THE FLOW REMAINS IMPRESSIVE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION SHOWING UP NEAR 14N35W. HOWEVER...THERE IS NO CLEAR INDICATION THAT THE CIRCULATION IS CLOSED AT THE SURFACE AND WOULD RATHER WAIT TO SEE A QUIKSCAT PASS...AND MAYBE A LITTLE MORE TSTM ACTIVITY...BEFORE ANALYZING A SURFACE LOW. THE WAVE IS ALSO TRUDGING THROUGH A STABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH DRY MID/UPPER LEVEL
AIR AND SAHARAN DUST TO THE N AND W BEING DRAWN INTO THE CIRCULATION...WHICH IS PROBABLY LIMITING THE SHOWER/TSTM COVERAGE.
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Merritt Island, FL Home Weather Station
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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The topic IS "Bring ON the Weather" and my post was about the lack of WEATHER in South Florida.
Bring on the weather means in my opinon...we are ready and waiting for the weather and we aren't getting any.
Not here..and not in Nepal.
My post was very on topic. The posts here about every little wispy cloud somewhere far away that will never get to the East Coast where Hurricanes are supposed to are OFF TOPIC. You want me to go thru and pick out how many are off topic but just general tropical trivia?
It's prudish and old fashioned to have to yank someone's post because they mentioned Naked Women in Nepal and overlook the fact that the article is about the fact that they are waiting to have some weather and we are waiting to have some weather and we are both waiting about as long for a seasonal pattern to get back to being seasonal.
My post was more about climo and bringing on the weather than any post of late that was just bemoaning and arguing out weather the is or isn't a factor.
Maybe there should be an board or a board for posts talking about models twelve days out and sitting on the porch shooting the breeze with the guys.
Sorry but thats MY opinon.
Says "bring on the weather"
You want to define THAT?
We had a board that was waiting for Bastardi's predicted storm that never materialized in the Gulf for WEEKS way after the forecast was blown and way before Ed disapeered and those posts weren't yanked.
No, I don't understand. I understand that its okay to talk about the wierdest things and get more bogged down in what is often a boring technical duel between only two or three posters who understand what they are saying as long as someone isn't using a little humor or trying to wake everyone up and smile a bit and at the same time learn that there is another place that is also waiting to Bring on the Weather and I would bet anything that there is some correlation in weather patterns that is depriving Nepal of rain and South Florida.
If we can study sunspots to see how they affect El Nino and watch the WV over japan its not a far stretch to see that we are both over a month late in monsoonal rains.
That post was NOT about trivia. Many posts here have been and they haven't been shoved onto a board no one reads. This wansn't about weather it was about getting nervous because the article was also about some girl doing some ritual rice harvest to some rain god w/o the proper rice picking gear.
Sorry no one is allowed have fun or smile but just duel out meteorological concepts around here in high tech lingo during what is a big dry spell of tropical weather.
I don't mind being censored when I am off topic or censor the comment about the Red Sox winning but I do mine being censored when I am ON topic.
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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Luis,
You know that stands for "Good For S---" don't you?
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evening 's arrival becomes very apparent and the system goes offline temporarily.. bummer
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HF,
2 solid posts, as always. Yeah, the site was down for like 13 hours yesterday, not sure why. Maybe Mike was trying something new out.
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And HF, loved the "latin" reference with the plural of the brothers Cornelius. It's been 20 years, but, I do believe that would be the "Brothers Cornelii".
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SC et. al.
'Twas Bertha, 1996. (actually formed early July, but I think that's the one you mean...)
(note..this should go in weather history)
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posts 15779 through 15785 AT LEAST are ALL abotu hurricane history NOt bringing on the weather... for instance..
Re: LI Express [Re: LI Phil]
#15785 - Tue Jul 06 2004 12:44 PM Edit Reply Quote Quick Reply
Thanks Phil, that really was interesting reading. That was one ferocious storm! Not exactly small either, at 500 miles wide. It must have been a truly terrifying storm to experience. We really are very lucky to live in an age of satellite technology and early warnings. It was lucky that the hurricane had weakened from CAT 5 status!
I take it that Gloria in '85 would have been the worst storm you experienced personally?
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then there is the ED PHONE HOME POSTS which weren't removed...
Glad ED is okay [Re: James88]
#15786 - Tue Jul 06 2004 12:50 PM Edit Reply Quote Quick Reply
I was beginning to worry because Phil was so concerned.
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then theres colleen, can someone give that girl her password...
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then from the Alex K person there are the anonymous bashing posts on why they differ
Obviously the people who write the tropical weather outlook are not the same people who write the discussion.
From the outlook"UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE"
From the discussion-"THE WAVE IS MOVING INTO AN INCREASINGLY HOSTILE
ENVIRONMENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG SAHARAN AIR LAYER
OUTBREAK."
I wish that the official authority on this could coordinate what they are saying
.......The most recent Discussion was written by Jamie R. Rhome, who is with NOAA.
You can tell who issued what forecast, as their names appear at the end of the statements. I believe that even within the , different forecasters can issue rather divergent forecasts based upon the same data...their "style" if you will.
I'm not certain if the guys issue Discussions as well, or if that is entirely separate. Maybe one of our Mets can clear that up.
Cheers,
LI Phil
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back to
Re: One more thing [Re: Old Sailor]
#15806 - Tue Jul 06 2004 04:06 PM Edit Reply Quote Quick Reply
Looks like the factor is well and truly taking hold in the Atlantic basin. How long is this likely to last for?
Post Extras:
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You might want to take Collen's anon post off here too..us women seem to have problems staying ON topic..
This is Colleen....I have to post as "anonymous" because I can't remember my doggone password..ARGH!
Hope everyone had a safe and happy 4th of July! We enjoyed ours. We went to the Pepsi 400 in Daytona and got hammered by a severe storm. Ouch! Three guys got hit by lightning by the merchandise trailers, but they all lived to tell about it (how, I don't know) and were even able to go watch the race! Amazing! I guess a better question to ask would be why they were at the merchadise trailers in the first place with that kind of storm going on. It takes all kinds....which my 8-year noticed. As we were making our way into the racetrack, he noted the following:
"There sure are a lot of drunk people here, Mom! (pauses for a moment)....oh yeah, it's a race!! You're supposed to be drunk! DUH!"
Kids.....they don't miss a trick, eh?
Re: the wave/invest/tpc statement. I thought that there was a year that we had a CV storm early in June, am I insane? I'm sure it fizzled out but I do remember thinking at the time that it would be an active season, and I think it was either last year or the year before. I'm sure someone knows. I'm sure the TPC is "thinking" that this wave has a little potential but not much, but for them to mention it at all speaks for itself. As for marginal conditions...well, who knows what could happen. Maybe this will be a rogue storm. I don't remember Andrew being forecast to be a Cat4-5 or for it to hit south Florida, either. But he did, and the rest is history! Never underestimate Mother Nature. Just when she's got you down for your nap, she comes screaming back into the room to tell you it's time to get up!
It looks like we might see some nasty weather here in Polk County. It looks as though Hillsborough is taking a severe beating at the present moment.
Hope all is okay with Ed. I'm sure we'll hear soon.
Colleen
BUT SHE DIDNT MENTION NAKED WOMEN IN NEPAL WORRYING ABOUT THE MONSOONS BEING OVER A MONTH LATE AND RUINING THE RICE CROP THAT COULD BE DESTROY A REGIONS WHOLE ECONOMY ...
OH I AM SOOOO SORRY i WAS OFF TOPIC BY TALKING ABOUT THE LACK OF RAIN AND A LATE RAINY SEASON AND WAITING TO BRING ON THE WEATHER.
IF IT STARTS RAINING IN NEPAL... YOU OWE ME
AND NO IM NOT PLANNING ON DANCING IN THE RAIN (*#&@) FOR YOU iN MIAMI..
YOU'LL JUST HAVE TO FIGURE OUT HOW TO GET YOUR RAIN GODS TO BRING ON THE WEATHER WITHOUT MY HELP.
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Steve-unjacked
Unregistered
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I have to agree with Bobbi. While I understand that most of the posts should be tropical (btw rainfall in South FL and Nepal do qualify), the board has been moderated a little too hard over the last year or so. I understand Ed's push for everyone to stay on topic, but if you can't have some fun every now and then, it gets too much like school. I quit school 20 years ago.
Steve
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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I'll leave these posts on the Main Page because they are good examples (at least some of them) of material that would have been appropriate to another forum. This is a Forum-structured site - by intention - so that site Users with various interests can engage in discussions related to their forum(s) of interest. The site is not a 'one-page' forum, but it is often used that way.
After being off-line for two weeks, I simply do not have the time to go back over all of the material that was posted and edit selected material or move it into another more appropriate forum if necessary - we are all volunteers here with a common interest.
From the Content - Site Useage Page: "This site was designed for ourselves to use as well, and you may or may not like our style." I think that pretty much covers it.
Any editing will always irritate someone (and I've got lots of emails to prove it). Any lack of editing will always irritate someone else (a separate and significant stack of emails). Lets all work toward a common ground. I've elaborated frequently on the tolerances for posting - at the start of every new season Mike and John and I discuss this topic and its never an easy subject - no way that you can please everybody all of the time, however, pleasing everybody all of the time is not the objective of this site. Enough on that. Please make an effort to put material into the proper forum.
Thanks,
ED
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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Dust is evident traveling across the Atlantic and moving into our part of the world. Wouldn't this lower the chance of anything forming as it dries out the environment?
and thanks Steve and I hear you Ed
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JustMe
Weather Guru
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Posts: 128
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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My pencil is dull again but it is not from storm tracking .. I have been tapping on my desk waiting for something to track. After last year this year seems dull.
When I begin to think we are ready then the waves just roll on as waves and never develop
what is the deal this year? I know it is early still but just a little something would be fun and give us something to discuss.
Looking East and South waiting. Anyone have any ideas as to why we are so slow starting this year?
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I have survived Betsy Miss, Camille Miss., Andrew Fl, Charley Fl, Frances FL, Jeanne FL,
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James88
Weather Master
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Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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It would probably have a negative effect, since tropical systems favour moist, unstable air rather than stable dry air. On top of this, there seems to be some slight cooling of SSTs in the southern Caribbean. Seems like the forces of nature are conspiring against hurricanes this year. On the other hand, we're only in the early part of the season yet, so there is plenty of time.
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James88
Weather Master
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Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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A slow start is not unusual. I think that after such an active early season in 2003 (on this day last year Claudette formed), anything less seems very quiet. Remember - most seasons have little if anything until at least July, so we are on track in that respect. I have to agree with you though - it would be nice to have something to track!
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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BTW, check this out:-
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
745 AM EDT THU JUL 8 2004
A SMALL AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT 275 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA. THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF A CLOSED SURFACE
CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND WILL BE MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
If you animate the image below, there seems to be a circulation in the clouds. Could this become the first one?
GOES-12 Interactive 1 km Visible Weather Satellite Image Selector
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James88
Weather Master
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Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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That was me. I forgot to login. Does anyone think this could become Alex?
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Steve hirsch.
Unregistered
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Does anyone know if the site is down. It won't open on my computer 
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James88
Weather Master
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Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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I think it is down - I can't access it either. 
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
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http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi
This is the backup site of which shows the new invest near Bermuda.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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