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Chill falls over the Atlantic as the official season heads towards close
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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Re: 96L flares up [Re: doug]
      #15925 - Fri Jul 09 2004 03:19 PM

I'm somewhat impressed with the wave crossing the Yucatan right now. With the ULL in the Bay of Campeche backing away SW, there is some ridging building overtop. I don't think the chances are all that great that anything's going to develop, but the signature is there. Were this August or September, it's got that kind of look where you'd bet 70/30 that it was a go.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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James88
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Re: 96L flares up [Re: Steve]
      #15926 - Fri Jul 09 2004 03:31 PM

The TWO isn't calling for any further development of this wave. Nonetheless, it is fairly impressive.

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javlin
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
Re: 96L flares up [Re: Steve]
      #15927 - Fri Jul 09 2004 03:32 PM

I know what you mean Steve.Old 95L holding on to it's circulation also just no convection to speak of.Do not know if I am reading this right looks like the steering currents at the surface move it S of the islands and into the GOM.I see high clouds going E and the low ones going W.What about that moisture just now moving into the GOM from your home state.The two masses seem to be heading on collision course.

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Rabbit
Weather Master


Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
Re: 96L flares up [Re: javlin]
      #15928 - Fri Jul 09 2004 03:53 PM

i dont remember who forecast Alex before Jul 15, but it is looking very doubtful that it will occur
btw, here is my forecast per month

JUL 1
AUG 5
SEP 5
OCT 3
NOV 1

i may have to update this if there are no storms in the next week


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Re: 96L flares up [Re: javlin]
      #15929 - Fri Jul 09 2004 03:53 PM

That energy was part of a wave as well. It was storming this morning when I woke up, but it's all moved west of here. We're actually supposed to get up into the mid 90's for only the 2nd time this summer over the weekend. I'll believe it when I see it because it's only not rained about 3 days since mid June. Nonetheless, there's rain headed for Texas and Mexico.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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James88
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Re: 96L flares up [Re: Steve]
      #15930 - Fri Jul 09 2004 04:11 PM

This is a indeed a very slow start. We were spoilt last year with all the early activity, but than last year was unusual in a number of ways. I think it's fair to say that we'll probably have a slightly above average year, it's just that most of the activity will take place in a concentrated period of several weeks (as in 1998). I may be wrong, but that's just my opinion (for what it's worth). Anyway, Rabbit's numbers seem reasonable, with an active August. The last time 5 formed in August was in 2000. That year was a slow starter as well - Alberto didn't form until August 4th! I'm starting to wonder whether we'll have a similar wait this year.

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Bobbi
Unregistered




Curvature over the Yucatan [Re: James88]
      #15931 - Fri Jul 09 2004 04:37 PM

Does anyone notice that the cloud signature over the Yucatan has a curvature to it? Looks very interesting from where I'm sitting and wondering if anyone else has been watching it?

Bobbi


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Keep watching 95L [Re: James88]
      #15934 - Fri Jul 09 2004 04:56 PM

Before we throw in the towel on July development, keep your eyes on ex-95L. I'm not saying it will develop, but it has stayed "alive" on its trek from Africa. If it can make it to the west carib/gom, it just may become a "playa".

96L looked good yesterday, but today...fading fast.

Probably not a lot to look for this weekend, but early next week maybe...just maybe.

Cheers,

LI Phil

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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James88
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Re: Keep watching 95L [Re: LI Phil]
      #15935 - Fri Jul 09 2004 05:02 PM

You're probably right Phil. If past seasons have shown us anything it's not to write these systems off too soon. Anyway, we've still got 3 weeks left in July, so a lot could happen.

Edited by James88 (Fri Jul 09 2004 05:17 PM)


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summercyclone
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 69
Loc: Florida Big Bend
Re: 96L flares up [Re: javlin]
      #15936 - Fri Jul 09 2004 05:12 PM

Well, I could be on a limb here, but I think there is a very good chance for Alex (or at least a TD) in the Gulf this weekend, the Yucatan system is very impressive and just has that "look" (as Steve said)...both Steve and Jav (and Bobbi) are on it, I think we have a show starter. If I am wrong...hey, I am wrong!!

I'll call the ball...lets see if I land or have to bail out. Only inhibit may be proximity to land, if it gains a little latitude (which it seems to be doing) < watch out (no pun).

PS--not a slow start, average so far.....

sc

Just looked ata close up loop, it appears a vorticity center may be developing over the central YP, moving WNW....next 24 hrs will tell the tale for development.....

Edited by summercyclone (Fri Jul 09 2004 05:21 PM)


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James88
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Re: 96L flares up [Re: summercyclone]
      #15937 - Fri Jul 09 2004 05:26 PM

Despite the system's proximity to the Yucatan, it seems to be getting better organised. I'm not saying it will develop, but it is something that bears a look every now and again. As Steve and summercyclone have said, it has "the look". There is warm water in the area, but there does seem to be some dry air to the SW. If it gets drawn into the system, it could put an end to the thunderstorm activity.

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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Mess in the Yucatan [Re: James88]
      #15938 - Fri Jul 09 2004 07:18 PM

Well it is a wave interacting with an upper level trof, and it is producing a bunch of t-boomers, but it's not going to develop into anything. Surprisingly, it had a better signature over land, really cold cloud tops. As it moved over water, things started going downhill.

96L is toast...95L struggling to hold on, but it is holding on. A couple more waves off of Africa yesterday and today. I still think our best bet is the shell of the former 95L.

Guess the mess off the Yucatan bears watching, but I wouldn't expect anything to come of it.

Cheers,

LI Phil

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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javlin
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
Re: Mess in the Yucatan *DELETED* [Re: LI Phil]
      #15940 - Fri Jul 09 2004 08:13 PM

Post deleted by javlin

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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Mess in the Yucatan [Re: javlin]
      #15941 - Fri Jul 09 2004 08:21 PM

Jav,

I looked at your link then went to accuwx pro which has enhanced IR and I'm just not seeing what you're seeing. I could very easily be wrong, but as the convection moves off land over water, it is totally losing it's punch. I do think this wave will hold together and eventually be a rainmaker for Mex/Tex, but I don't see it developing...just my opinion...I could be wrong.

Cheers,

LI Phil

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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javlin
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
Re: Mess in the Yucatan [Re: LI Phil]
      #15946 - Sat Jul 10 2004 01:29 AM

guess I am wrong

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Rob_M
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 60
Loc: Cary, NC
Hey All [Re: javlin]
      #15948 - Sat Jul 10 2004 11:17 AM

Finally back after week's absence...guess I didn't miss too much. Still catching up on everything but I wouldn't get excited about the GOM disturbance. Convection is still being enhanced by shear aloft...sort of the same non-tropical situation as with the GOM low we tracked a few weeks ago. With this one, steering flow suggests a more westward track, but again, just some ULL-enhanced convection. Nothing that poses a threat to develop into a TC.

Over the past week, we've seen stronger tropical waves traverse the Mean Development Region. The apparent boom in tropical wave activity is in part due to the negative MJO pulse moving over the area...later this month a positive MJO will take over and we'll probably see things die down a bit. The next negative MJO, if timing is right, should come around the second half of August...PERFECT timing for everything to break loose. I still think there's a decent chance of Alex forming later this month in the Mean Development Region just before the negative MJO exits...GFS still picks up on lows east of the Windward Islands in the long-range, we'll see if continues to for many runs to come, persistence of course is the big key.

Also want to mention that a real dull start does NOT correlate to a duller season. Some hyperactive seasons (with NTC above 150%) where the first named storm didn't form until sometime after July 15 include 1950, 1955, 1961, 1969, and 1998. Most of those years really didn't take off until the end of August...again, we're talking about big dawg years here. What happens in the first 2 (or even 2.5) months has no relationship with what happens around the peak or later in the season.

--------------------
Rob Mann
IndependentWx.Com


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Hey All [Re: Rob_M]
      #15950 - Sat Jul 10 2004 12:21 PM

Rob

Great post. Think you pretty much summed it up for the next couple of days. You and Steve are all over the MJO flip...if it does pan out like you guys think it will, then August through the heart of the season should provide us with quite a show.

I'm a little less confident today than earlier in the week about former 95L developing, but it still looks to have an ounce of energy left.

ho-hum. maybe next week.

Cheers,

LI Phil

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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James88
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Re: Hey All [Re: LI Phil]
      #15951 - Sat Jul 10 2004 01:38 PM

I think it is reasonable to expect a named storm this July. It would be very surprising if one did not form. Records since 1886 dictate that a tropical storm or hurricane will form in July about seven times every 10 years. In the last 10 years six seasons have experienced a named storm in July. Therefore, the averages dictate that a storm will form this month. Of course, the weather pays no attention to statistics, so there is no guarantee that anything will form. Even so, I'd be surprised if we didn't have Alex at some point in the next 21 days.

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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
Re: Hey All [Re: James88]
      #15952 - Sat Jul 10 2004 03:22 PM

This is so unreal. I have not seen it so dry in East Central Florida since I have been here (1986). My grass is still brown and has been since May!

Is it possible that there is too much dry air for the formation of any system? I understand that Cuba has been in a drought situation as well. I wonder what impact this will have on any stroms forming in July.

--------------------
________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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James88
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Re: Hey All [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #15953 - Sat Jul 10 2004 03:49 PM

Check out the wave to the east of Puerto Rico. It now has a lot more convection than it did a few hours ago. There is a mass of dry air to the west which could disrupt any development. Does anyone have any thoughts on this wave and its chances for development?

Edited by James88 (Sat Jul 10 2004 03:51 PM)


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