Rabbit
Weather Master
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Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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also, forgot to mention that about 85-90% of storms have formed after july 10, and about 30% of years have had no storms before August
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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you might catch on to what I'm saying.
What I'm trying to say, for once and for all, is that once Ed comes on line, he's going to edit and/or move much of the great stuff you've put up. He's big on the "proper forum" thingy, and in this respect I agree with him. I've said it before and I'll say it again, and I've PMed Ed with this, Very Few of us visit any of the other forums, only the main board. That's fine and that's everyone's prerogative.
I've also suggested to Ed to leave stuff up during the slow times, and to a certain extent he has. But some of the posts today WILL be EDited and or moved...you know it. Then you get all indignant when Ed does WHAT HE'S WARNED YOU OF COUNTLESS TIMES.
Hell, he probably Edits me more than anyone...I just deal with it. It's no big deal...really. Anyway, once I've said my piece I'm not going back on it.
So, to sum up: I AM "LIGHTENED UP" AND I HAVE SMELT THE CHAMOMILE TEA AND ANY OTHER REFERENCES YOU WANT TO THROW OUT.
It's almost like you're daring Ed to take you down, so you can rant about it later.
A while back Steve made a point that over the past year the board has been edited a bit too hard. Well, I think Ed heard you and will ease up. But if you know your post is not in the proper place, do make the effort to find the proper place, please? It's real easy. Just click on "Forum (Newest)" under Communication at the left menu. There it lists all the other places to post. Just put it in the right place.
You guys make some GREAT posts and I cannot tell you how much I've learned over the past 5+ years. We're all here because we love the weather.
A'ight {tm by HF}. Please people don't take this the wrong way. I'm not the "heavy" here.
NOW, try to stay on topic, 'kay?
PEACE TO ALL,
LI Phil
Edited by Ed Dunham (Thu Jul 15 2004 03:12 AM)
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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
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Told you yesterday Bobbi, that there was nothing to worry about in SW Carri and GOM, the first storm waiting for my 75th birthday so August 1st be first one.... 
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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75 huh? My pappy turned 76 this year. I'm sure he never went thur the storms you've seen, but ...he did get shiipped to Korea during the conflict...apparently the worst "action" he ever saw wasn't from the Chinese nationals but the weather demons that plagued his ship on the way there. That's for another time and another forum (yes ED) but that and the horrible typhoons encountered by our military during WWII are the reason we have satellites and an NWS so active today (not the only reason, but a major factor!)
Cheers,
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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I moved a few things - to places where no one will read them (except many do read them). Had trouble deciding between the Disaster Forum or the Comedy Shop! One post that got trapped in the shuffle was from Tropics Guy:
Well, finally the rainy season has arrived on the SE coast of Fla, as the upper level winds are blowing the T-storms east ward over the coast, rained hard today in the FT Laud area.
About the tropics currently these words describe it best: zero, nada, zilch (need any more descriptive words?) going on right now., the only faint glimmer may be the wave coming off of Africa but it'll probably dissapate like the others. I had posted in a much earlier post that it may very well be a "1992" year in which the "A" storm won't develop until Aug, it seems like were headed in that direction, but maybe we'll see a TD between now and then.
Just wanted to elaborate a little about how I enjoy reading the non-topic posts about , SAL, etc during the slow times, i've learned a lot from these posts and feel that during these "slow times" that they should stay on this main forum not moved or edited, most people just visit this main board anyway.
TG out
I tend to agree. Keep in mind that the Main Page topic is 'Analysis'...on purpose...because its quiet.
Remember that the site is Forum oriented. Stay on topic. Post it in the correct Forum. No personal attacks.
Thanks,
ED
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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congratulations Rabbit on your hard work.. alot of data there
not much to say today.. really not much at all out there to talk about .. maybe something will pop up
and yeah old sailor you were right..nothing much happened but it was fun watching it ..least there was something to look at
take care all..bobbi
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Great research Bugs! 5 years? Wow. Thanks for posting it.
Nothing going on AGAIN. Wave exiting Africa looks healthy, and a couple waves just meandering westward. Looks like the Islands will get some t-boomers but there's no organization. August BETTER make up for this.
Joe B. is still keen on the Rogue Storm to form off Hattaras Sunday night and bomb up the EC. That's about all there is out there, and even that's no given.
Peace y'all,
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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bobbi
Unregistered
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https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/OTIS/US058VMET-GIFwxg.OTIS.glbl_sstanomaly.gif
seems to me its a big too cool for things to really spin yet
and.. what was interesting to me about the wave train is its slight north of west axis so that you can see the stair step process that could exist down the road in august
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James88
Weather Master
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Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Maybe the wave will have something to offer in a few days - but I somewhat doubt it. 
BTW, if that rogue storm does occur, let us know what it's like won't you Phil?
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JustMe
Weather Guru
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Posts: 128
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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Looks like to me that we are certinaly starting to see waves for sure ... in the Eastern Caribbean there a few showers now that are seeming to be stronger at least the cloud tops are white in the color loop.
It is fun to watch... I know all want to track or else why would we be here. Hope this year brings lots to track but no damage to property or lives
Back to work have a good day all.
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I have survived Betsy Miss, Camille Miss., Andrew Fl, Charley Fl, Frances FL, Jeanne FL,
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Steve hirsch.
Unregistered
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Looks like things are shaping up in the tropics again. Moisture returning, and impulses looking a bit more interesting. Eastern caribbean disturbance popcorn again; area crossing 40W looks like it has possibilities, as well as the t'storms south of the CV. There's the darn Low in the eastern GL that doesn't want to move anytime soon. Wonder what affect that will have on any development possibilities,as it is causing a SW'erly flow across the SE states 
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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This comes from Mark Sudduth, of hurricanetrack.com. Pretty neat little site, and he offers, free of charge, daily commentary:
As I look at conditions across the Atlantic Basin, it is clear that just about all of the ingredients needed to form a hurricane are in place. Water temps are plenty warm, upper level winds are favorable in several areas and there are tropical waves moving steadily off of Africa every few days. So what's the hold up? Dry, stable air. A layer of African dust and dry air is choking off any chance of deep convection developing right now in the deep tropics. Until that layer (called SAL or Saharan Air Layer) eases up, it is unlikely that we will see any development in the eastern Atlantic. However, over the next few weeks, as water temperatures get even warmer in the eastern Atlantic, the lower levels of the atmosphere will become more humid and unstable. It is no coincidence that the so-called "Cape Verde" season usually kicks off around the middle of August. So enjoy the calm right now- because there is still every indication that the peak of the season will be very busy.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Steve hirsch.
Unregistered
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Well, I'm jumping the gun here, but there is a bit of a tumble in the area of cloudiness near 11N/45W. Give it a look. Things are beginning to moisten up as each day goes by. We're getting close now. Cheers!!
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Robert
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 364
Loc: Southeast, FL
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Well As this year goes The stil doing their thing and not what they should be doing. Why you ask i am bashing the again. Well it goes back to analogs,and the truth is we have already had are first TS that hit hati in may, and a that week TD out buy bermuda. So if were looking at anaologs we need to search out one's in wich before july 20th we already had 2 storms, and an analog with a may storm. I heard 1990 was a good analog for this year and it had a TD or was a storm in may. NE HOO thats my 2 cents
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Robert,
Fair point. I thank many of us on this board feel the Hispaniola storm in late may was at least a TD. Not so sure about the Bermuda system, but you could also make a decent argument we had a TD in the gulf on June 14. chose not to classify.
Now the Bermuda & Gulf storms didn't really cause any mischief, so I won't argue with the call. But the Hispaniola disaster, where I'm sure there were inadequate (if any) warnings, definitely warrants a post-season look-see. Doubt they'll change their call.
You raise an interesting point about the analogs...if we DO look at any of these three storms as having at least been a TD or TS, then maybe we need to look at different years.
I'll give the benefit of the doubt...they're the pros.
Cheers,
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Cocoa Beach
Unregistered
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Hello Robert,
Have you heard anything about fires in South Florida, which indicate the Bermuda high getting into place from Bermuda to S. Florida. Setting Florida up for a land strike this season.
??? 
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ROB H
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 32
Loc: Clearwater, FL.
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Steve H, I see that little twirl also, probably nothing but you never know. btw hello everyone
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GR MIAMI
Unregistered
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It has been an extremely dry heat in South Florida this summer. I do not recall another summer so dry and with a very dry heat. We have had fires in our area, just west of the city of Miami for the last 10-14 days and in fact smoke was the forecast and the weather earlier this week.
I wonder if that is a prelude to a strike later this summer because we usually get plenty of rain in the summer, but not this one. So far...
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
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http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/GVAC.html
Interesting the wind direction from the north today at the Cape Verde islands meaning that some type of circulation is with the wave emerging Africa.Will this be the first TD of the season? Well at least there is more moist air in the tropical atlantic and less sal that may help this wave to develop but time will tell what will happpen.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
Edited by Cycloneye (Thu Jul 15 2004 07:17 PM)
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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A quick "google" search yielded this article from the Miami Herald, although it's posted on the South Carolina State homepage (???). Should help to answer some of your questions.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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