LI Phil
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Hey Colleen,
That's about the only interesting thing this morning...the African wave train. Especially the absolute MONSTER poised to hit the Atlantic later today. Whole bunch of waves meandering across the pond, probably too far south to worry about...looks like the one just southeast of the Islands will bump into SA. Nada going on in the GOM, system in the West Carib heading west across Central America, though, as HF pointed out, is still, unexplicably, tenaciously hanging on.
One feature of possible interest this weekend is a possible "rogue" storm forming off the coast of NC and heading up the coast towards me. JB mentioned this and, to paraphrase, "as close to a tropical storm without being one" as one could ever see. He likened it to two previous events, one in August 2002 and one in August 1994. The '02 event saw 40-50 mph wind gusts and featured a warm core eye like feature. The '94 event was even worse: "a rouge storm pounded coastal southern New England and Long Island, sinking boats with wind gusts to 60 mph and 3-5 inches of rain." Unfortunately, other than this possibility, not really anything else going on anywhere 
Hey Lonny, go back a few threads and read the extensive El Nino discussions. The basin will stay NEUTRAL for the season, even if an El Nino does develop, it will not occur in time to have an effect this year 
Cheers,
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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James88
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Anyone notice the convection flaring up east of the Windward Islands? There doesn't seem to be much shear and the water temperatures are warm. However, there is dry air ahead of it. If it makes it through the E. Caribbean we may have something to watch down the line. That's if it doesn't crash into South America as Phil pointed out.
The wave over Africa doesn't look as impressive as it did a few hours ago, but it is still strong. Let's see if it collapses over the Atlantic or holds together.
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Steve hirsch.
Unregistered
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Yep, another east of the islands blob. One of these will light up 
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JasonM603
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Quote:
The has been staying negative and the SST's have been somewhat increasing around the equator. I know most of the pros have said neutral for this season and I hope there right. The question is when will EL Nino be truely established?? The waves are starting to look like the last El Nino when they came off and poof. I think it is more climo then any El Nino effect. I still think around 14 names this year because it's still early and there are more + then - effects for this season.
ENSO region 3.4 has been warming but regions 1 and 2 are relatively cooler than average. There are a lot of warming fluctiations due to and changes but I don't see any long term trends that would incidcate that we're about to have an El Nino event. The has been fluctuating a lot but the 90 day average is actually slightly positive.
Edited by Ed Dunham (Thu Jul 15 2004 02:36 AM)
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LI Phil
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Not exactly sure, was that a "self-rave"? LOL
Thanks for replying Jason. Let's end the El Nino discussion here & now, please.
Edited by Ed Dunham (Thu Jul 15 2004 02:44 AM)
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Steve
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>>Thanks for replying Jason. Let's end the El Nino discussion here & now, please.
nowayman. El Nino, dude. Smokin'. Partying around Christmas. Ninomeister. El Torro. The boy. Man boobs.
*ahem*
The forecast models are trending more and more toward neutral each month. There will be mixed signals over the next few months, but ultimately it will be the Atlantic Water Temps that will be most influential over what forms where and how strong it gets. Speaking of Atlantic Water Temperature Profiles (nice segweigh, eh?), temperatures off of West Central Florida are approaching 90. Yikes. That's nearing Jacuzzi temps.
https://128.160.23.54/products/OFA/gsscofa.gif
Also shows some of Bastardi's thinking in regards to a strong-severe Western Florida year.
While I'm at it, here's a great site you might want to bookmark for Canadian activity:
http://www.novaweather.net/
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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LI Phil
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Steve,
Nice copy-guy SNL reference. LOL. Perhaps you misunderstood, I was just hoping we could end all references to El Nino affecting the 04 Tropical Season, at least on the main board. Getting trite, beating a dead horse, ya know? If you want to debate it, ask Ed to give it a forum. Now, I'm up for some good , , QBO debates. Anything to give the board some fodder till we get something to track.
I did notice those superwarm SSTs of the Fla coast. If they can start migrating south...could spell trouble down the road. The whole GOM's becoming a hot tub...
Peace out,
LI Phil 
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Bobbi
Unregistered
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First off.. may I personally thank Steve for that beautiful site, always had that really nice wide view image of the Alantic and now it even moves. Great site.. colorful, I like it. Thanks.
http://gfx.weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/satell...ges=1&clf=1
Second of all... as for El Nino... and having his own site.. Why stop there? Why don't we give him his on TV Show.. maybe on .. you know people are getting tired of those storm reruns. Maybe a bunch of El Nino stories.. like the day the earth stood still in California from too much rain and other ways it affects our weather.
Personally I don't think Ed needs to comparmentalize every aspect of hurricane forecasting. Next think you know would want his own time slot. Bastard would call in with an offer to do the tilting negative dragon thing and I might want to expound on dust.
STorms like people are made of up many parts and aspects. Don't think we should break everything down to one aspect anymore than we should break people down into one part of their body or one part of their personality. No.. we are a composite of everything.. so are storms.
And, right now.. if y'all hadn't noticed there aren't a lot of storms and unless we take off and all go fishing we may as well relax a bit and talk in general on the tropics.
Today I'll take the Gulf for maybe 25% chance of development.
Sorry if I don't pick up a lot of your references. I'm sort of old school and people need to just get in my face up close and spell things out for me or I miss them.
You're funny Steve.. keep laughing.
Phil.. breathe...
Bobbi
great site.. so much easier to see the deep color against that pretty greenish background
oh and By The Way.. giving up on the Carib. I may cut it off my charts completely so I don't even bother to look.
Edited by Ed Dunham (Thu Jul 15 2004 02:47 AM)
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Steve Hirschb.
Unregistered
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Not only west central Florida, but east as well. The buoy 120 nm off New Smyrna Beach is 87, Lake Worth 87. Remember last year when the SSTs near the beach were in the upper 50's  BTW, watching the area near east of the Windwards still. Se if it evolves into something. Cheers!!
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Steve Hirschb.
Unregistered
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Oh, Squall line heading toward the West African Coast.
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James88
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Since there is not much to talk about in the tropics, I thought I might just throw in an observation for the future.
This year looks like it may be shaping up to be a repeat of 1998. The is expected to become a favourable factor around mid-August through early-September. Rob M said a couple of days ago that it could lead to a burst of strong activity throughout this period, with a calmer mid-September with another (smaller) burst at the beginning of October. This is basically the same set up as in 1998.
Also, the strong waves emerging from Africa have prompted many to predict that this will be a strong CV year - like 1998.
It was a big year for the US - 7 landfalling storms, with Hurricanes Bonnie and Georges (near Steve's neighbourhood, am I right?)
And, by a coincidence, same names this year!
Anyway, that's just my opinion - for what it's worth. Cheers!
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Bobbi
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I've thought a lot on 98.. was a good year for tracking with a lot of friends. I remember it well.. before some people disapeered round here give or take in the summer of 99.
Eitherway and where ever.. I came on to say I'm not mega impressed with the African Wave.
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James88
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Yes, 1998 was a good year for tracking. That was the year I first got interested in storms, when Hurricane Bonnie was on the news. That's where it all started. It would be interesting if we were to have a similar year this year.
On the subject of the wave, I have to agree with you Bobbi. It doesn't look nearly as impressive as it did earlier today. Still, maybe if it makes it across to the Caribbean area it might have a chance. That's a big IF though.
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Steve
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That's correct James. Georges ultimately went in on the Mississippi Coast in either Harrison or Jackson County, MS (Biloxi-Ocean Springs-Pascagoula) after giving us a scare here in New Orleans. I correctly predicted to my wife that we'd see winds of about 50mph and maybe .25" of rainfall out of the system. That didn't stop her from freaking as all her friends kept calling telling her to "get out" as they had their kids safely tucked away. We rode it out anyway after I told her I wasn't going anywhere except to the store for more beer.
However, due to the strong northerly flow across the area, many camps on the Southshore of Lake Pontchartrain and Brunnings Seafood Restaurant at West End were completely destroyed by waves. The city lost power and was in chaos. I'm just west of the city and all we lost was cable for an hour or so that Monday morning. The Superdome was used as a last resort shelter for the inner-city poor and they plundered everything from cannisters of fountain softdrinks to some of the seating in the Superdome itself. It was unbelievable.
Many able-bodied residents evacuated because of the recent memory of which dumped torrential rains on our area a week or two prior as it spun off the coast of South Texas. Also, we got TS Hermine that year directly overhead. The problem with Hermine was that all her convection was displaced east of Mobile Bay. That was a waste of a tropical storm.
For other Georges references, check out the page below. The Hurricane Hunters actually got some good photos of Georges' lightshow (lights & sprites as they call it). You can follow the links from the linked site below:
http://www.hurricanehunters.com/georges.htm
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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LI Phil
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James-names the sames-but Gaston will have to threaten Steve, not Georges-redux.
Steve-o, Personally I love the recollections of storms past, but you know Ed's gonna move that the second he check's in. Come to think of it, he's gonna have a lot of editing to do (on me, too  ) In slow times, I think these posts should remain (mostly) untouched, but the "proper" forum is the "Storms Past" (or whatever it's called).
I'm only the messenger here...as I said, in slow times I think we should post away...
Wouldn't mind a repeat of '98 either
Peace,
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Loc: Central Florida
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since continuous satellite surveillance began (1966), there have only been three years with no depressions before July 20:
1969--TD1 on Jul 25, TS Anna on Jul 26
1978--TD1 on Jul 30, TS Amelia later that day
1998--TD1 on Jul 27, TS Alex on Jul 28
1990, had TD1 in May, but nothing in June, so the first TD of the season was Jul 22, and became Arthur Jul 24
all of the above seasons were active:
18 in 1969, 11 in 1978, 14 in 1990 and 1998
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HanKFranK
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what? no NO...
we're not transitioning out of a mega el nino event into a strong la nina. that was 1998. nothing so drastic.. we're neutral, whole different animal. 1953 is the quoted year i keep hearing.. i don't really know much about that season aside from the storm tracks and distribution (active/mostly nonlandfalling season). as far as getting an signature match.. that would be even tougher. my analog years of 1990 and 2003 featured an damping event.. it literally faded to nothing for a month or two either summer. perhaps they aren't that good.
i'm not really impressed by any of the analog years, to be honest. 14/14/16 named storms on the spread. 1990 had yet to start (arthur 22july).
models right now not providing much hope of anything developing near term. emerging wave signature is tracked but nothing more. will need some more run to run insistence before giving it more than a glance.
HF 2147z14july
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HanKFranK
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there may be a statistic to bust the given analysis, varmint. by that i refer to the 'strong tropical disturbance' in late may.. you know, that tropical cyclone acted clueless about while it drowned 3000 people in haiti/dr. maybe your post will stand true.. we'll know after the season when they post-analyze (issue weather information six months too late).
but yeah, late starting seasons tend to make up for it by breaking out and running wide open. i would like to know where you got the info on depression formation dates, though. not in the archives for sure.
HF 2153z14july
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Bobbi
Unregistered
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It's so slow you could fall asleep looking through websites on old storms. This IS the slow time.. we aren't even in prime time. It's as slow and sleepy as it gets. Cuban Coffee wouldn't wake up the tropics let alone an energy drink.
I'm so bored I'm quilting covers with initials.. , mao, irt, nfl, come on guys give it a yell.
Let me make this clear, simple.
1) African Wave has not rolled off the coast and it is already falling apart.
2) The Atlantic Ocean has been swallowed up by dry air that was created by DUST.. stop calling it "dry air" its dry cause a massive DUST storm filled the entire ocean and might even be doing it now but I'm tired of looking at satellites for dust. I'm a hurricane tracker.. and all I've been tracking is dust storms and sites.
3) East of Florida and area where Cristopher and Eduard were last seen fighting with eachother for who gets to be on the top of the tropical heap is.. DEAD. Hot but dead. Ain't no trofs or dangling cold fronts hanging around and there ain't no upper level lows flirting with moisture that might make their way down to the surface. DEAD.
4) Carib hasn't had anything because there have been no dangling fronts and there have been no waves. Get it? Kaput.
5) SW Carib is a big tease and nothing else. Sure someone can call it a better word than me but she ain't putting out any storms.. nope, nada.. she isn't even giving the epac much to smile about. Drop her like a hot potato and stop waiting for her to do something.
6) Aruba, Jamaica..oh i want to take you.. dry.. dry and drier.
7) BOC or the area previously known as "i'd take something even in the BOC heading into Mexico" if you don't like the BOC reference sorry but I don't like Boca in S. Florida much either, ho hummm..falling asleep.
8) The GULF in general.. hahahaha.. you're all getting so desperate you'd watch Earl reruns.
9) The Canadian Maritimes...aren't going to happen unless they catch some tropical moisture from down south and there isn't anything traveling that road so... so.. that's a no go.
10) Am I missing a region? If so.. please..educate me which one, correct me and show me what other tropical area I missed.
We've only have about 3 or 4 statements from the that said more than "tropical development is not expected through Thursday" personally I think they went scuba diving in Biscayne Bay and have left the recording on.
just repeat after me.. this is the slow time
cause eventually something will happen.. it might not be what you want to see happen and it might not be where you want to see it but it's gonna happen, happen sometime..
smile and take a deep breath
think some people around here for whatever reason are losing their sense of humor......................................
Edited by Ed Dunham (Thu Jul 15 2004 03:07 AM)
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Loc: Central Florida
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here
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/general/lib/lib1/nhclib/libpage13.htm
this will get you from 66-77 for the depressions
as for 78, the third storm in the ftp archive was the third depression, so Amelia was the first depression
79-87 i have a satellite dvd that has the satellites and tracks, 88-90 were in the tropical weather section of the Florida Today microfilm archive
91-94:
ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/pub/storm_archives/atlantic/
95+ are at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastall.shtml
took about 5 years of searching to find most of this (search was finally finished about a week ago)
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