LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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I too think (hope) something can get going in the next 10 days, possibly within 5 days...Agree that the Gulf is just RIPE for development, if something can get going down there. Also, "my" wave somewhere near 45W south of 15N is still tenaciously hanging on, despite less than favorable conditions.
JB reckons something could get going in the Gulf next week as well, as early as Wednesday, and more likely by next week end.
Looks like JB's rogue storm is doing a number on the Delmarva and Chesapeake as we speak (some 5+" amounts already) and will head up my way as the day progresses. Right now there is no wind to speak of, and I'm doubtful we'll be seeing any gale force winds, but the system is still well south of me. It will be wet, very wet.
Otherwise, it's pretty quiet.
Cheers,
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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CocoaBeach
Unregistered
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Here is a link to a bouy in the GOM.
29.21 N 88.20 W (29°12'36"N 88°12'00"W
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.phtml?station=42040
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Steve Hirschb.
Unregistered
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That "my Wave" is looking fairly good earlt this afternoon, and could produce our first TD.....with the emphasis and could. That huge trough digging into the SE may leave something behind, but right now is producing heavy rains in EC Florida. Stay dry Phil! I'm going to take a nap 
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
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Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Hey guys, just thought i'd post my thoughts on the two waves east of the Lesser Antilles. The first one currently near and just east of the islands is not that well organised, and not firing off much convection EXCEPT for the area just to the NNE of Barbados. The latest TWD alluded to this region and says that a mid-level circulation is present, but no surface one at the moment. It looks very compact, and will probably give the islands a few hefty showers and some gusty winds. If the mid-level and weak circulation can make it to the surface then this might have a chance, but it just seems too small and fragile at the moment.
The other wave located around 46W continues to seem well developed. The convection has increased over the past few hours, and again there are suggestions of a circulation at the mid-levels. This wave seems to have a little more 'strength' in it than the one to its west, and i think stands a better chance of becoming something more.
Just my thoughts 
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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James88
Weather Master
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Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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The wave is looking good. It seems to be heading further north, thereby avoiding a collision with South America. It does look as though it may be entering some very dry air, so it may lose its thunderstorm activity later. Still, this wave has shown it's a tenacious one.
Sounds like the GOM may be a place to watch next week. I hope so, 'cos August is a long time to wait until a first storm.
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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I think that wave down there is going to need to have a paternity test done because there are so many men around here trying to clain it as their own. Some one call Maury Quick! lol
Seriously.... the wave, the wave lol (hear tunes of fantasy island, de plane, de plane) is alive and hanging in there. Tenacious is good.. small in this case is good, in a small pocket of positive conditions and just high enough to keep its head above water and just small enough to duck down under the SAL. Maybe...you never know.
Bastardi's Rogue Storm.. Not much of a storm, defiintely defineable as a syatem but not what it was Billed to Be.
Lingering trough over very hot water needs to be watched. Gulf possible, probably more probably than the Bahamas but wouldn't rule off development off East coast of Florida either as a possibility down the line *IF* its still there in a day or so.
Raining here.. nice, off and on and gusty like showers, squally weather more than heavy downpours. Haven't had that in a long time.
Keep watching.. think somehow a system might sneak in under the July 31st deadline to give July a depression at least but not worrying on what August will bring.
Hoping for what I'm hoping (smiling) and have to see how it all plays out.
Have a great sunday.
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GR FLA
Unregistered
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Seems like everybody's wave is looking healthy today.
The key is how it hangs when it enters the Eastern Caribbean Sea as there as alot/alot/alot of dry air ahead of it as water vapor imagery shows. Also, lots of strong storms and cells in the northern eastern gulf could spawn something later this week, if it hangs on over that warm water for a few days.
Any comments on everybody's wave at chances of development, we have the july deadline upon us!!
By the way, being an Andrew survivor in '92, I remember quite clearly how quiet it was till mid August when Andrew was born, thinking if no development in the next 2-3 weeks, a precursor to 1992 here in South Fla, Also with a strong cold front /trough coming down in July (very rare) could August and September have the ridge in place strongly off the East Coast that will drive storms west instead of recurving northward, any comments???
Should be a very, very interesting August and September, we will certainly have plenty of activity this fall, possibly to late OCtober and early November.
Peace Out, wanna hear anybody's comments!!!
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: South Florida
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"a precursor to 1992 here in South Fla, Also with a strong cold front /trough coming down in July (very rare) could August and September have the ridge in place strongly off the East Coast that will drive storms west instead of recurving northward, any comments???"
I'm thinking that you are right in that after the trough passes and whatever goes on in connection with it the next phase would be the high building in again...just in time for the Atlantic Hurricane Season/Cape Verde Season .. hard to say, makes anyone who lived here then a bit nervous when its so hot, so bright and before I read this I was looking up at the neighbors mango tree trying to remember why the year of Andrew we had two or three strong blooms (didn't this year btw) and how after the fact we all had things in our mind as to how 92 seemed so different.
I suppose until we have another strong cane we will remember Andrew until the next great cane that leaves a mark upon our memory.
so is the way of the world
Funny how somethings in life you can try and convince yourself that nothing happened and others you can't.
Andrew... is unforgettable.
It's quiet.. too quiet.. see it as a precursor to trouble not a lowered quieter season.
My thoughts. Now you got them.
Watching the wave but believe is watching the Gulf. Saw it on mute a little while ago.. let the loop sit a long time. 
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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...now I'm taking my ball and going home.
Maybe Joe B should stick to the tropics. Rogue storm my @$$. So far all I've seen is a raindrop or two. Although areas to my west are being dumped upon.
Keep watching MY wave, you guys can have the action in the GOM next week
Peace out,
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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GR FLA
Unregistered
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Looking at some future forecast models want to have a low pressure established in the central Gulf by mid-week, maybe that'll be our first depression, or even Alex.
Florida panhandle and northwest Florida getting pounded by rain, should be wild in late August-onwards.
GR FLA
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Storm Cooper
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Loc: Panama City , FL
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Post deleted by Storm Cooper
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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GR FLA
Unregistered
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What does that have to do with Gulf situation/development???
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
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Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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I am now inclined to reduce my forecast for the season from an aggressive 15/10/4 to 14/9/4; perhaps more in line (but not quite with) with this wonderful conventional wisdom displayed on this site.
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________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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rmbjoe'54:
That's still a pretty "aggressive" number anyway. One less hurricane.
GR FLA: His post might have something to do with a PM. Give the Coop a pass on this one...he's working on a new model, should be ready soon
As far as reducing #s, most of the more knowledgable posters (that excludes me of course) are saying not to change your #s, that the current paucity of activity has no bearing on future activity. I'm keeping my 14/8/3 come heck or full moon tides.
BTW, how's MY wave looking? 
Cheers,
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Cocoa Beach
Unregistered
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The distrubance should pass by this bouy:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.phtml?station=42040
If you wanna watch it.
Winds coming from the W @ 17.5, Gusts 19k
Press. 29.79 and falling
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DustDuchess
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 28
Loc: Polk County Florida
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Quote:
Looking at some future forecast models want to have a low pressure established in the central Gulf by mid-week, maybe that'll be our first depression, or even Alex.
Florida panhandle and northwest Florida getting pounded by rain, should be wild in late August-onwards.
GR FLA
How in the world could anything start up in the Gulf since we have had such an upchurning of water this past weekend?
(remainder of post moved to the Other Weather Events Forum)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Mon Jul 19 2004 01:47 AM)
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: South Florida
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this was from earlier buoy
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.04 in ( Falling )
either way the pressures remain low and winds seem gusty
waving back at you Phil.. use easier words for us simple types to understand please.. have to go look up paucity, you think i dont have better things to do today?
IF..if ....IF something develops in Gulf..tend towards weak named storm and not a TD, IF..sort of an it will go all the way and get a name or not at all.. just a feeling
as for reducing your numbers..telling you stick with your first choice, its usually correct
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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
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From tonights TWD:
TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 900 NM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
ALONG 46W S OF 16N MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO HAVE A
GOOD SATELLITE SIGNATURE WITH AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 47W-51W. THE WAVE IS MOVING AROUND
THE S PERIPHERY OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC WHICH IS PRODUCING GENERALLY LOW SHEAR. THIS FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL REGIME IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HR AS THE
WAVE APPROACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES.
Might be our best chance for TD development in awhile, we'll see if it holds together as it approaches the island. What do you think Phil?, will this be TD # 1 or fizzle out like the rest of them?
TG
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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
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The west wind been strong all day between 15 and 25 Mph. My area St.Pete beach , about 3 inches of rain the past 24 hours, The fast movment of thunder storms would seem to keep an TD from forming, also water temp now drrop to 84 vs 89 degrees from 2 days ago. Not looking for anything to come out of this through.
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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What do you think Phil?, will this be TD # 1 or fizzle out like the rest of them?
I'm sorry, you must have me confused with HanKFranK, Steve, Ed, Jason K (Kelley), Rob or Jason M (Moreland)... (or maybe Scottsvb...)... I've been on this one sorta as a last hope. Can it devlop? Sure. Will it develop? Your guess is as good as mine.
Although I'm learning, I'm good with past stuff and present stuff...as far as future stuff...well, I try to defer that to the experts.
If I had to make an (un)educated guess...YES...it will become TD #1, somewhere between the Antilles and Cuba, eventually becoming TS Alex on Friday. Meanwhile, the GOM gets its act together and we have Bonnie on Saturday. Then two weeks of nothing until the basin bombs out on August 14th. Yielding 4 TSs in a two week period. By September 1, CAT IV Gaston is threatening Steve and CAT V Rickonboat.
BTW, I own a bridge connecting New York City and Brooklyn, and I can let you have it for a song.
Sorry gang. Just getting a tad silly (duh) but this lack of action is driving me stir crazy.
(BTW, if any of those predictions actually pan out, you EACH owe me a beer!)
Cheers,
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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