Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
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Seems to be organizing nicely, wish they would put the Sat. floater on it soon.
TG
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Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"
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Rabbit
Weather Master
Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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will not be classified at 5 because the S wind is W of the center
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bobbi
Unregistered
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what were the last cords used for current position of the model runs
saw this somewhere but not sure if thats correct, dont think so: "10.7N 55.5W "
what are the cords they were running the models off of?
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Rabbit
Weather Master
Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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thats where it likely was (or appeared to be) at around 8 am this morning
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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STRONG TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS ALONG 56W/57W WILL MOVE W 20 TO 25 KT. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THE WAVE IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR . STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE WAVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN. THE WAVE WILL BE
ALONG 64W TUE AFTERNOON AND ALONG 70W WED. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED REACH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THU AND THE NW CARIBBEAN FRI AND SAT.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Kevin
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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Time to jump back in, looks like we'll see action pretty soon.
Check this out:
http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/surface/caribbean.gif
We still don't have a west wind. From the looks of this map, we don't have a closed circ yet. I wouldn't worry though, the system seems to be organizing this afternoon despite rapid forward movement. I have a weird (and probably incorrect) feeling that will classify this as a TD at 5. Ah, that young gut.
The models are trending more westerly with their tracks this afternoon. Sure, we have a big trough that's going to weaken this Bermuda High over the next couple of days. But this system is still moving quickly westward, indicative of a strong east-to-west flow. So while I feel that a northerly movement is lurking as a possiblity, a more westerly track is interesting to me. Besides, climotology doesn't necessairily support this system curving to the north.
Let the storms roll...
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Quote:
wont tell you when i was last excited like this.. dying to know what is going to do at five..
really has a nice explosive look and if it does develop would venture to say its going to have a classic NE quandrant
thanks guys
What you said last para is exactly what iIwas thinking...however, having said that...they won't do 'anything' at 5..maybe, at 11, but, more likely not until tomorrow...from what I am reading they are not seeing a surface circ yet...
twt.
sc 
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Rabbit
Weather Master
Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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lowering my forecast by one--there will not be a storm this month
i am looking at the winds, and the fact that the wind is out of the south to the west of the circulation indicates that it is very disorganized at the surface
also, the wave off of africa is weakening
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bobbi
Unregistered
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/VIS/20.jpg
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Shan
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 12
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Although this is my third season here, I rarely ever post. I don't feel that I know enough but I have learned alot from just reading all of your posts. Anyway, I just looked at *our wave* and I can see a definite spin! Pretty impressive. I think we will have a t.d or maybe even t.s. Alex soon.
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Shan
Bayou La Batre, AL
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to shan
Unregistered
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This is a site for tropical weather enthusiasts not just professionals. I'm sure after 3 years of watching you have what to say. It's a forum, as long as we are on topic it doesn't matter if we have a PHD or grave diggers that like to study tropical weather.
That's my opinon mind you but am sure others agree.
And, your thoughts on what may be Alex are worthy of reading.
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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>>> lowering my forecast by one--there will not be a storm this month
Whoa Bugs...don't you think you're writing off this (and any other possible developments--we still have 12 days left in July) way too soon? Almost every site I've checked this afternoon is big on development, much more so than any of our other "false alarms" this season.
It won't be classified at 5:00, although Celia has just been added (which I called earlier on the Other Basins Forum, BTW). It probably won't be at 11:00 either, and maybe not for 24-48 hours if at all.
But to give up on the whole month? That's crazy talk man
MY wave will survive!
Cheers,
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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caneman
Unregistered
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I disagree. site now has it at 30kts Must be some type of organizing going on for it to have gone from 25kt to 30kts. Just my opinion.
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
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Rabbit
Weather Master
Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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1997 was forecast to be a big season as well
there were only 7 storms; i don't have much faith in the forecasts
I'm also going to take a guess that the didnt even investigate this, as they havent the whole year (except the low in the Gulf last month)
Edited by Rabbit (Mon Jul 19 2004 04:58 PM)
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Steve hirsch.
Unregistered
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This is not '97!
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caneman
Unregistered
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And, seems keen on it its potential.
Tropical Weather Outlook
Statement as of 5:30 PM EDT on July 19, 2004
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
A vigorous tropical wave...centered about 220 miles east of the
Windward Islands...is moving rapidly westward near 25 mph.
This system has become better organized today and has the potential
to develop into a tropical depression over the next day or so.
Even if there is no additional development...the wave is expected
to be accompanied by briefly heavy rains and wind gusts to near
tropical storm force as it moves through the Windward Islands
tonight.
Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through
Tuesday.
Forecaster Jarvinen
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Looks like it's "splitting" (not the correct met term), and the more northerly piece is really getting some serious t-boomers. Look at those super-cold cloud tops developing.
IR
WV
I think we may have a TD by tomorrow...
BTW, have any new #s come out. I can only find them from 11:45 UTC, and there should have been an update since then.
Cheers,
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
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I only give it about a 20% chance , 2 reasons why not is mid level low and thunder storms now moving away from the center of the low, 2nd once it passes the island no history record of a strom forming this time of yr in the carri. It may become a TD around Cuba.
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James88
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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'97 was forecast to be a big year, but there was the unexpected development of a phenomenal El Nino event. Not an issue this year.
This is like Claudette last year - watching a wave approach and get better organised and waiting for the upgrade. Please let this wave be the one! 
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Robert
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 364
Loc: Southeast, FL
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Tobago airport reporting light 4-5 nnw to w winds in the past 4 hours. barbados reporting east at 25mph
Edited by Robert (Mon Jul 19 2004 05:29 PM)
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