Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
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Interesting scenario there with that loop but it would be more credible if other global models join the in that same scenario.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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Rabbit
Weather Master
Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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AVN 6-day
the aviation model was the only forecast model to forecast Debby's turn southward in 2000, and overall seems to be the most reliable. Look closely off the coast of Africa
nothing has been forecast like that outside of the Pacific
Ed's 7-31 forecast may be correct if this forecast holds true
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Rabbit
Weather Master
Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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98L no longer active
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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>>> Has JB said anything about the blob in the NW Carib.?
Nah, Drooper, he didn't post today. He's somewhere in the midwest (or at least that's where he was yesterday).
Things are seeming to wind down as evening draws near...lets keep an eye on the wave near the Caymans...slowed down to 10MPH...see where it is by morning light.
As I said this morning, I don't know why 98L was still even an invest, glad they finally took it off the board.
Haven't looked at any of the models yet, as a couple of you guys have mentioned above. From what you're saying though, sounds like we might actually have a read, honest to goodness TD this month 
Das it fo' now.
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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here's the rundown:
two trouble areas in the basin have problems of their own. former 97L found a patch of ridging, convection came back today.. and predictably low level easterlies are surging in to sweep the surface 'hurricane stew' out from under the support. there, i just coined a phrase. anyhow all this stuff seems to be going the way of old mexico. no, it isn't hungry for tacos, so don't make that extremely funny joke again.
98L (which is one of two vortexes NW of the SW/NE oriented convection from w cuba to north of bermuda) has a convectionless swirl sitting 200 mi SSE of hatteras and a slightly more formidable (ha) one moving NNW which is SE of hatteras.. noted in the . that's a lot of bearings to read and understand, probably easier to eyeball them in the visibles. off to the southeast a bunch of convection assoicated with a wave, enhanced by overhead diffluence, is coming up NW. should enter the mix tomorrow, maybe fire off more swirls. this is a festering problem area that has so far not caused any trouble.
brief but pertinent off-topic. maybe it's that i just dated an english-teacher student or maybe i just feel like poking fun at people's spelling. no names, just some corrections for mistakes i keep seeing:
1) condusive. that's phonetically correct, but you spell it conducive.
2) comming. nope, just one m (coming).
keep in mind you've just been informed how to spell correctly by a drawling carolinian (think slower boomhauer) who is not many generations removed from banjo-picking and moonshine. that should get y'all spellin' right. raaaight. enunciation is another issue.
HF 2310z24july
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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>>> no, it isn't hungry for tacos, so don't make that extremely funny joke again. (doing best Homer Simpson), "mmmmm tacos". HF you crack me up.
Think you're right 'bout 97L, headed for the Yucatan. Granted, it's evening now, but everything seems to be falling apart. Hopefully everything will flare up with morning heat.
Wave that exited Africa yesterday has actually held together reasonably well. And it's far south enough to avoid all the dust and dry air to it's north. Probably meet the fate of every other wave to come off the continent, but it looks pretty good so far. Wondering if this is what the models are seeing down the road (click on Kevin's link -- top of this page).
Me think thu comming dayz wil be moar condusive four develipmint. 
Cheers,
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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i see the wave is still there.. laying low, waiting for the right time maybe..
as for the contests around here..
i always thought july 25/26 would bring the first system, as what i dont know. depression or storm..
not sure if it will pan out, will see ..
maybe ed's is more realistic
here is a thought..
what if we ONLY have a real Atlantic Hurricane season this year ?
No early gulf
No fake blobs in bahamas
No Carib teasers
Just a real Atlantic Hurricane season.. complete with CV storms?
Doubt anyone around here will be all that let down
I mean.. better to have the real thing that just a bunch of imposters
talk tomorrow if something comes up
coming, one M.. thank you..will remember that
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
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Seems like the convective blob located on the southern end of a wave that rolled off Africa a couple days ago has been producing consistent convection. It's located a little far south, but it seems to be gaining a little latitude in the last frame. Right now it's located near 8N 37W, and IMO seems to have the best chance at development during the next few days if it can stay away from the dry air to the north of it.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/eatl-ir4-loop.html
TG
"I'm Tropics Guy and I approve this message"
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Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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>>> "I'm Tropics Guy and I approve this message"
TG: ROFLMAO!
Actually, I think there's some new law REQUIRING candidates to put that little codacil at the beginning of every message. BTW, I work for a State Senator, so I'm a tad in tune to this stuff.
Yeah, the African wave is lookin' pretty good (thanks for the link). For this time of night, to put up a convective burst like that seen in the last frame is pretty impressive. I think this impulse is the same one (or close to it) that the models are developing for late next week. Someone with more knowledge of this sort of thing than moi, please confirm or deny that statement.
OK, I'm LI Phil, and I approve of this message.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
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Ok Guys like I said 2 days ago 97L is dead, I know your tried your best today to get it to rise from the dead but it didn't. Woulldn't count 98L out yet it's looking for trouble.
Dave
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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(duplicate post deleted)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Jul 24 2004 11:38 PM)
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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
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Not to bad Phil:
Think you off by two words,
Old Marine. There where have you isolating, my friend. Who didn't indicate that is 97L living? Even if he is, he will cross the Mexico and will emerge in the pacific ocean is. Hope goes you well.
I know you guys want to see something come alive it will soon.
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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I'll keep it en Anglais for the folks.
Sorry about the "old marine" versus "old sailor". My 8th grade french teacher didn't make those particular distinctions.
Yeah, we're all hoping for something, anything to track. I know it will come soon enough. Just was hoping it would come sooner than later. But, "the waiting is the hardest part" so it will be that much more enjoyable when our first TS or even TD does arrive.
Have a great night...hope Droop caught his dinner.
Cheers,
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
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(duplicate post deleted)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Jul 24 2004 11:35 PM)
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Storm Cooper
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
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For whatever reason my link to still has 98L up at this hour. Watch 97L... I think this one will hold on to be something... and whatever it becomes travel across to mid TX. 
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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a lot of weather forecasters complain about the AVN, especially on TV as its no longer the "in" model but I think its good at showing trends often that later verify as opposed to some that are either very good or very off..
just my opinion
and wanted to mention it
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/wavetrak/winds/wavetrkAsal.jpg
sort of paints a picture..reason wave is still there.. and why maybe it has a chance
like real estate.. its all about
location, location, location
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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James88
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Still not much going on, but the has something to say:-
A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 175 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA IS MOVING
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. ONLY LIMITED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...SOME
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AS THE SYSTEM
GRADUALLY TURNS NORTHWARD AND MOVES INTO A REGION OF SLIGHTLY MORE
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. HOWEVER...BY MONDAY THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVER MUCH COLDER WATER AND BECOME
LESS ORGANIZED.
So there is some potential, but I'm not completely convinced. There looks to be a decent flare up north of Puerto Rico this morning, but it doesn't have a mention in the Outlook. Also, the wave in the central Atlantic is looking quite good this morning. It will have to gain some latitiude though, otherwise all it will do is provide some rain for Venezuela in a few days.
So, still quiet, but if the run materialises we could be in for some very interesting days ahead.
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Cocoa Beach
Unregistered
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I bet that we DO NOT see a TD or TS by the end of July.
I also think this is just like "snow days" we will be making it up in "June" or in our case "December"
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Hey guys,
just been looking at the latest visible imagery and loops from GHCC on the low to the ESE of Cape Hatarras. The low is very well defined with a tight circulation, and ample banding of the low level clouds. Although it earlier had very little convection, this is now starting to change. There is increasing convection on the western side of the centre which is now wrapping in towards the core of the low. If this continues we may see a classification later today, possible as a TD or something subtropical. It doesnt appear to be moving much, but there is a general slow motion towards the NNW i would say.
Does anyone have any thoughts on this small feature?
Regards
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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