LI Phil
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Hey birthday boy,
Two things: you're really negative on most development, but your're mostly right. Something's wrong there.
Give one of these systems a shot, would ya, so that we have something to track...
Laughing out loud (LOL), but everytime you put the "ky-bosh" on a system, it goes into the tank. STOP THAT!
We want a TD, anywhere, any time.
Enjoy #75 (remember, my pappy is 76).
Cheers,
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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10:30
A TROPICAL WAVE CENTERED ABOUT 650 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH. SHOWER ACTIVITY
CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND ADDITIONAL SLOW
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
could this be Alex before the TD?
a little note: since the TD has not become Alex at 11 and this is the last advisory of any kind for the month, my forecast will stay the same (I was kind of hoping I would have to update it)
Looks to be a year like 2000.
One of these systems (TD1 or the Atlantic wave) may become Alex. 2000 had Alberto in the first week of August, and I am forecasting a similar year in numbers.
Edited by Rabbit (Sun Aug 01 2004 02:55 AM)
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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
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Thanks again Phil,
Promise to tell you guys first ,when I get in my car to leave my beach front home a run like H---, been wrong just as many times as right, but my gut feel says no to this one.
Dave
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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 366
Loc: USA
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at 11pm TD#1 is remaining a tropical depression. but the season looks like its about to crank up. it could still be busy like rabbit said. and in 2000 it was 14/8/2 and alberto came aug. 4. No named storms in july lets see what aug. can bring
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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90L HAS A LOT MORE STORMS OVER THE CENTER .THE PAST 6 HOURS IT IS LOOKING BETTER AND BETTER.IT MAY BE ON ITS WAY.
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Re: the July contest. Did it end at 0000z tonight, or at Midnight EDT?
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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At this point, I believe it's rather moot.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Sorry, I just had to ask.
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Didn't mean to offend...au contraire. Thanks for the answers on the flying tigers (recon). I think the "first storm" still hasn't really been answered...until we get a name, it's still up for grabs. We're (of course I'm speaking for the whole board here) so Jonesing for even a TD, that we'll take anything at this moment (ATTM).
We are about to TAKE OFF, though. This month will make up for June & July.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Here's the Mid Gulf buoy
01/03z 42001 25.8 -89.7 t29.4 dp25.3 w110@ 16 G 17 pk gst100 19kt 1012.0 pres tend/3h +3.2mb sea temp30.3 wvht1.0mtrs 6sec wv pd 42001
The East Canaveral buoy:
01/03z 41010 28.9 -78.5 t26.2 dp24.1 w210@ 27 G 37 1014.9 pres tend/3h +1.4 sea temp28.8 wv ht2.0mtrs 8sec wv pd 41010
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teal61
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 61
Loc: Spring, TX (30.1N 95.5W)
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but the latest quickscat of TD 1
http://manati.wwb.noaa.gov/dataimages21/cur/zooms/WMBas19.png
seems to indicate that the better defined center is well south of the latest position.
Looking at the IR loop
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-bd-loop.html
You can pick out a weak center up around 32n, but there also appears to be one under the stronger convection down around 27 or 28n and this would agree with what quickscat shows.
Also 90L seems to be hanging in there tonight around 24/90, will be interesting to see if this trend continues through the night and tommorow. Quickscat missed 90L but an earlier one still showed a pretty well defined circulation north of the Yucatan.
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Nice picture. I guess it depends on where you live.
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/data/tropical/18.jpg
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MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Testing out a new site feature here:
http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/stormhistory.php?storm=1
This link is for the plaintext "csv" version (useful for loading into Excel, databases, etc)
http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/stormhistory.php?storm=1&p=1
A better (More complete) storm position history. Hopefully it'll last the evening without breaking. It's all automated and a bit more complex than what I had made before.
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: South Florida
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HI.. was away most the day until late this evening and reading through so many posts on the TD.
quickly.. good reading.. nice to read the posts.
think did a good job with it.. it is a TD, sorry it not more exciting for some of you, its just a TD still.. look far to the east for real excitement. I heard the wxr radio around 5 announce the storm.. smiled and smiled even more excited when it mentioned the African wave.. to me that was bigger almost.. having them mention a wave so far away.
Just a note that TD's and weak Tropical Storms can cause a great amount of trouble and flooding ... especially in areas that are already busting with water.
Aren't parts of SC already way over the limit with water?
Thanks for the water loops.
As for the contest .. I've always disagreed with the way its done. To me the first advisory is the start of the season. Not an official name but I'm not in the majority I think here. So, in my mind ed wins though he would probably say "no he meant a storm"
I remember years back SNONUT made some prediction on I think first hurricane.. was more a joking bet online between him and someone else and there was a Tropical Storm .. not a hurricane, strong one on the date and I was so annoyed he qualified it with Hurricane.. so him.. sort of all or nothing person that he is .. but in my mind he really did win but well.. winning is in the eye of the beholder. Won't go political here but that is a subject for debate that will go on past 2004 hurricane season contests on FLhurricane.. for me..think Ed came real close.
So.. we are still looking for that elusive named storm.
I guess to some of you the TD is like an anonymous post.
Happy Birthday Old Sailor.. very happy and who ever is 25.. I'm lost, eyes are blurry from reading.
congratulations to all and to all a good night!
Bobbi
ps..okay i let out a holler when later in the night the said the wave was developing...or whatever they said exactly 
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconuswv.html
This WV loop shows a circulation, free of clouds. I can't tell if it's on the surface (probable) or elevated. The thunderstorm complex SW of the circulation has expanded over the last 3-4 hours. Now nearing 95W. Don't see an awful lot of lightning in the complex though.
New pic on E Africa wave should be posted within the hour. 06Z is the next fram on Met-8.
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HanKFranK
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august 1st is roughly the date that we hit the climatological ramp to the second week of september. 2004 is heralding the onset of the active part of the atlantic season by giving us a taste of things to come.
tropical depression 1: bobbing near the edge of the ridge now. the surface system is still broad and only the beginnings of a exist. ed had some interesting thoughts on how the depression will behave, posted over on the forum. i'm still holding out on the storm getting over closer to fl/ga and grazing the coast there before moving northward, though nothing in the way of modeling agrees. there is still a negatively tilted slice of ridging to the north and west, staving the effects of the shortwave for now. this may provide an opportunity for the system to camp and meander, while possibly intensifying. if it's already on a terminal run on the carolina coast, baroclinically induced intensification would likely take place. either way this will probably be alex tomorrow. ed still gets the cookie in my book, it formed 31july.
90L: continues to underachieve. now has drifted to a position north of the yucatan, with the same basic structure as two days ago. feeling more hesitant about calling this one a texas threat, much less feeling confident it will develop, though it still surely has the potential. friday night i bet it would finally organize sunday around it's current location... so it had better get started or i'm toast on that call.
elsewhere: may not have picked up on it, but ssd has a 1.0 rating on the wave/potential low racing along near 11/36. it is showing a semicircular arc of convection leading a vortex that is at least at the mid layers.. expect only a wind-shift line at the surface due to it's quick movement. some subsidence to contend with, but fairly smooth sailing ahead.. it should begin to decelerate monday as it nears 50w. considering that it's keeping a low latitude and maintaining/improving in appearance, this is possibly a better candidate for t.d. 2 than 90L is. ssd is calling it 90 for now, which won't fly over at .. so i'll just go ahead and christen it 91L (thats season invest #12). globals are tracking it, just not going crazy about it. gut feeling is that it will be a player next week. i'm sure cycloneye will be giving the most intense analysis of this one in coming days.
eastpac seems to be cooling down some, so our atlantic burst of development/suspicious characters will likely end for a couple weeks. of course systems can always defy 's mandate and form/not form when they please, but indications are that we should go into a dry spell until late in the month.
HF 0506z01august
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James88
Weather Master
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Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Good call HF. The east Atlantic wave in now 91L. It's still looking very good on satellite. TD #1 looks like it is developing some deep convection a little nearer the center, so it should be getting slowly better organised. In fact, T-numbers are up to 1.5/2.0, so it may have a good chance of reaching TS status today.
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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KJAX NEXRAD profiler is now showing a towering echo with tops between 55-60,000 ft. Located due E of Jacksonville.
Tower line runs W to E. It's embedded in another area of 40-45,000ft echoes on the west side. Seems the tower is collapsing somewhat.
http://weather.cod.edu/cgi-bin/wwwradargif.pl/JAX.TOPS.gif?station=JAX&product=TOPS
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Hurricane6
Unregistered
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The LLCC looks to be undefined out far to the north of the convection. Around 32.5 north??? It appears landfall with a dry center/With a few showers in about 6 hours? Take a look at the Satellite http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir2-loop.html 
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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I'll agree the center appears to be displaced N of the convection. I don't see anyforward motion, attm. The inflow and convective bands appear to be better organized than earlier. Just sit back and wait on the sun to come up. You'll be able to get VIS sat then, observe the low level clouds, and see if TD1 explodes in the sun.
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