HanKFranK
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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i'm not quite with the yet. slightly different take. with t.d. 1, the low is tightening up, and the system should deepen today. as it does the deeper flow, which is out of the northeast as long as it hangs south of the weak mid-layer ridge, should keep it trapped east of georgia. perhaps a sea-breeze front/onshore banding will drag it even closer. probably not going to move much between now and midnight. overnight think it will nudge up to the s.c. coast, probably near st. helena island. as far as intensity goes, mid-level air isn't particularly moist feeding in.. unless the center continues to drift into the deep convection it will intensify very slowly.
elsewhere 90L looking sloppy as usual, now getting close to northern mexico. development now quite doubtful.
91L not as good looking today. convection weakening in the ocean of dry air in east of the islands. it will struggle until it slows down. has some, but needs to get down below 20mph.
next potential invest is the upper energy with weak surface trough dropping sw-ward under the atlantic ridge near 24/52. upper ridging with fairly moist air content a day or two ahead.. with the existing atmospheric torque it will have to be watched for surface development.
1503z01august
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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WTNT41 KNHC 011455
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN AUG 01 2004
THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO HAVE AN ILL-DEFINED AND ELONGATED CENTER
WITH MULTIPLE SWIRLS. THE AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT DID FIX A CENTER SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CLOSER
TO THE DEEP CONVECTION. THIS COULD INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION
MAY BE STARTING TO ORGANIZE A BIT...OR THEY COULD HAVE FIXED A
TRANSIENT FEATURE. THE OFFICIAL CENTER POSITION IS RELOCATED A
LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BUT BASED ON THE OVERALL
SATELLITE APPEARANCE I AM NOT GOING ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE FIX
LOCATION. THE AIRCRAFT DID REPORT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 33 AND 36
KT...WITH A VISUAL SURFACE ESTIMATE OF 30 KT...AND THESE
OBSERVATIONS ARE THE BASIS OF RAISING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 30
KT. THERE IS CURRENTLY VERY LITTLE WIND TO THE NORTH OR WEST OF
THE CENTER.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG UPPER-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
AND SUBSIDENCE OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE DEPRESSION'S
CIRCULATION...WHICH SHOULD HINDER SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES ARE HEADED
TOWARD THE CYCLONE...AND AS THE FLOW TRANSITIONS THE DEPRESSION MAY
FIND A BRIEFLY MORE FAVORABLE UPPER PATTERN IN 24 HOURS OR SO. THE
SHIPS GUIDANCE BRINGS THE DEPRESSION TO NEAR 50 KT IN 36
HOURS...WHILE THE SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
ROUGHLY SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE AND HAS THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL
STORM VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST IN 24 HOURS. AS A RESULT...A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING IS REQUIRED AT THIS TIME. LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CYCLONE MERGING WITH A
LARGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
GIVEN THE RAGGED NATURE OF THE CIRCULATION...THE INITIAL MOTION IS
HARD TO DETERMINE...BUT APPEARS TO BE ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY. THE
DEPRESSION IS APPROACHING A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...SO
STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK AND THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
RATHER SLOWLY AND REMAIN NEAR THE SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA COASTS
THROUGH 36-48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...A GRADUALLY AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL
TROUGH IS LIKELY TO CARRY THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD WITH
AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS FAIRLY
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. IF THE DEPRESSION IS IN FACT
REORGANIZING FARTHER SOUTH...THEN THE CURRENT FORECAST IS LIKELY TO
BE TOO FAST.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 01/1500Z 31.9N 79.2W 30 KT
12HR VT 02/0000Z 33.0N 78.8W 30 KT
24HR VT 02/1200Z 34.1N 77.8W 35 KT
36HR VT 03/0000Z 35.1N 76.2W 40 KT
48HR VT 03/1200Z 36.5N 74.0W 40 KT
72HR VT 04/1200Z 41.0N 66.0W 40 KT
96HR VT 05/1200Z 46.0N 56.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 06/1200Z...ABSORBED BY LOW
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LI Phil
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Alex will be christened later today, probably by 2:00. Fret not. The bigger questions are 90L's fate and the possible TD which came from the CV two days ago. I'm less bullish on 90L than 2 days ago, but not ready to stick a fork in it.
Alex (to be) at 35mph and stationary, so unless something bizarre happens to rip it (him) to shreds, it will make minimal TS strength, and thus become the first named storm, soon enough.
Since no one else has mentioned it, I will:
Congrats to our new moderator, HanKFranK. Ed will still do the heavy duty lifting, but we'll be keeping the ISARONI's and MATTHEWs outta here when things really get crazy. So, big ups for HF, who has probably forgotten more about meterology than I'll ever know  .
Looking for Alex at 2:00
LI Phil
Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun Aug 01 2004 05:45 PM)
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MikeC
Admin
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Posts: 4544
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Just another site note, the front page advisories that appear use our "old" warning system and still have the problems associated with it, IE Hurricane Local Statements being chopped off, however if you click the "History" link next to the Popup for the Local Statement, you will see the entire text, including earlier from today. This uses our new system. They currently don't mix well, but eventually the older system will be phased out.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Looks like the 2004 season from the hrd (noaa) will be a new milestone for , seems they are working on a doppler project
To analyze airborne Doppler radar observations for the following purposes:
1.To send a hurricane wind field to TPC in real time from the P-3s
2.To send intelligent local averages (a.k.a. superobs) of Doppler radial velocities to /EMC in real time from either the P-3 or the Gulfstream-IV aircraft
so far the schedule looks to be on time.....
8: Jul. 2004 - Install workstation aboard aircraft
9: Aug.-Oct. 2004 - Produce real-time Doppler analyses automatically aboard aircraft during 2004 Hurricane Season
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/project2003/doppler.html
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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Thanks for the link.. very interesting work.
Watching the TD along with all of you. Not a lot to say or add, what is there to say ???
Watching the wave out there.. very dry days out there but I believe its holding together.
TWC this morning said they thought the wave had a lower pressure than the TD.. not sure on that, am sure they would be sure to make an on air statement though.
As for the system out there.. yeah I also wondered if that was an upper low moving its way down or just rain but right now watching to see if we get a named storm at 2 or 5..
Want to see if Bonnie lies over the sea..
Thanks Hank for your contributions.
Bobbi
Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun Aug 01 2004 05:47 PM)
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Hurricane
Registered User
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Posts: 5
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New advisory 4a - Alex has formed 
----------------------------
000
WTNT31 KNHC 011743
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALEX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT SUN AUG 01 2004
...THE FIRST TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CAPE FEAR TO CAPE
HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO SOUND. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EDISTO BEACH SOUTH
CAROLINA TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE HAS STRENGTHENED INTO
TROPICAL STORM ALEX...THE FIRST NAMED STORM OF THE 2004 NORTH
ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON.
AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL
STORM ALEX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE
79.1 WEST OR ABOUT 80 MILES...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON
SOUTH CAROLINA.
THE CENTER OF ALEX HAS BEEN ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS...HOWEVER...A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN LATER TODAY WITH A TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST TOMORROW. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ALEX IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY NEAR THE
SOUTH CAROLINA COASTLINE TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...MAINLY IN SQUALLS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. SOME
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
1010 MB...29.82 INCHES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH ALEX.
REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...31.7 N... 79.1 W. MOVEMENT
...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
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Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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With recon reporting a max flight level wind of 41 kts and surface winds of 35 knots we have Alex, our first named system of the year... FINALLY 
Interesting to note that the system has remained stationary most of the day, and is slowly intensifying. Earlier the said the upper level winds would become a little more favourable as they switch from northeast to southwest in around 18 - 24 hours. If Alex has been born in the current conditions perhaps he might be a moderate storm after all. Will be interesting to see what the 2100z intensity forecast package is!
See ya all soon
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
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We do have a storm, Allex not much of one, 40mph winds, as wife was just telling me , we both look good but don't have any wind left in life. Guess the storm matches me on my B'day ..LOL.
Look to the east we may see first big trouble maker out in mid altantic.
Dave
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James88
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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It's taken two months but it was worth the wait.
Agree with Old Sailor, the mid - Atlantic looks like it's gearing up for Bonnie.
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Steve Hirschb.
Unregistered
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I agree Dave. Looks like a Bonnie in the Making! I can make out the area of low pressure in the visibles. This should continue to get better organized as it moves westward. Cheers!!
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Cocoa Beach
Unregistered
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http://www.intellicast.com/Local/USLocal...mp;prodnav=none
You can really watch Alex sucking in the moisture. 
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged:
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Just a note to let you know that the lead-in article for this thread has been updated.
ED
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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The SHIPS model takes Alex to 73 mph in 48 hours and 74 (!) in 72. Ed or HF, do you think this is realistic and could this actually become Hurricane Alex?
--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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Very cool. Very, very cool. Like seeing change.. energy changing...getting THAT name out of here lol.
And... as for you old sailor.. tell your wife I said that "when you got it, you got it forever" Now she probably just has a chance to keep up with you a little more. Would bet you were a handful back at 55. Once a class act.. always a class act.
And.. once a tropical storm.. always a tropical storm.
In the record books, its a keeper.
Now.... smiling... what's happening out in the Atlantic.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Steve Hirschb.
Unregistered
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Inclined to agree with your update post Ed regarding the southern position on the center. Alex is bringing tropical moisture from the GOM across the Florida peninsula. Had a heavy rain band come across Palm Bay about an hour ago. The wind had that familiar low drone to it. Is it possible for this (Alex) to get suppressed to the SSW?? I saw it happen back in the '60's once......can't remember the name of that storm. Anyhow, things are now heating up. We watch
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Carl
Unregistered
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Betsy is the storm you are thinking of from back in the 60's...wound up passing right over my house in south Louisiana.
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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Very cute Steve..think you mean Betsy and don't think this is a Betsy set up, but cute.
Though it is stationary.
Go cook something with your wife and enjoy the Sunday, just keep checking in here and on .
Would like to know more about what's happening out in the Atlantic to the east of Alex and down below in the dry zone where the CV wave is struggling to hang on til moisture times.
And..always think of Betsy when there is some storm up there sort of stationary.
Think Alex will provide the SE with various forms of tropical moisture before its all over.
We going to have a new thead called ALEX ..just wondering.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Steve Hirschb.
Unregistered
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Betsy...thank you. Not really meaning to be cute bobbi, but damn, I am cute ain't I Just that the center is really south of 31N, just a tick north of due east of JAX. Man I love this.
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James88
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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This system may actually grow into a fairly strong tropical storm. Remember, the last discussion had it strengthening into a tropical storm, but it reached that status about 24 hours earlier than forecast. Also, Alex is over the Gulf Stream - a place where disorganised systems such as Bertha (96) have swiftly organised. As well as this, Alex doesn't seem to be in that much of a hurry to move inland, and if the period of favourable upper level conditions verifies... well, let's just watch and see what happens.
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