hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
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Loc: USA
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the is now calling the center a eye. The discussion also said Alx could peak at 70kts between forcast times.
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James88
Weather Master
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Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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...Alex becomes the first hurricane of the 2004 season...moving
almost parallel to the North Carolina coast...
To think that originally he was only supposed to get to 40kts...
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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URNT12 KNHC 030516
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 03/0516Z
B. 32 DEG 55 MIN N
77 DEG 32 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1265 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 245 DEG 81 KT
G. 172 DEG 17 NM
H. 983 MB
I. 18 C/ 1569 M
J. 21 C/ 1554 M
K. 18 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C10
N. 12345/8
O. 0.5/2.0 NM
P. AF866 0701A ALEX OB 18
MAX FL WIND 81 KT SE QUAD 0510Z.
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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2 AM EDT TUE AUG 03 2004
...ALEX BECOMES THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2004 SEASON...MOVING
ALMOST PARALLEL TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES.
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joepub1
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
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Alex has done alright for being in an area that the thought wouldn't produce a Cat1. Still don't think JB's theory of him smacking NC is going to pan out. It's off to the N Atlantic and on to James88. He made it to T4.0 this morning.
91L is going to be the second TD VERY soon.
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James88
Weather Master
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Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Got to agree with you Joe, if you watch the visible loop it definately looks as though it will give NC a miss. It might be a close call for the Outer Banks though. As you said, it'll probably take a trip to the Atlantic and then move over towards my neighbourhood.
To be honest I'm a little surprised that 91L hasn't already been upgraded, but it probably will be at some point today.
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Just checked the WV on 91L. Looks like the convection is NE of the LLCC. The circ. ctr has some convection around it, but the big storms are in the NE quad. I don't see any shear, so it might be going through a cycle of sorts.
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joepub1
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
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They are dragging getting the 0545 T numbers up for 91L. Seems to me they might as well give the islands a heads up for Thur/Sat.
My most hated model, the , is taking "Bonnie" to 67W and turning it just about due north. Considering it wouldn't even develop 91L into a small cloud two days ago, that seems maybe to far to the other side of a possible track. But somebody earlier said they thought it might miss the islands just about altogether, which I can't see happening as well. Maybe it's getting real late and I just can't see. I do think some island is going to get it.....but who knows, maybe the east coast is covered for now, which has been the norm for a few years. You'd think at some point luck would run out 
Edited by joepub1 (Tue Aug 03 2004 02:38 AM)
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joepub1
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
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And as I type, it's dropped to T1.5/2.0. The center is further south; it's now seen at 11.6N vs 12.2N on the last scan. Throw the latest run of the out the door because it's already over two degrees too far to the north by the time the storm hits 52W (which is where it's at now). Man I hate that model 
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James88
Weather Master
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Do you still think we'll have a tropical depression today, though?
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joepub1
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
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Yeah I do. Think it's just getting itself lined back up. She has a lot of energy, the center will get the storms back over it soon enough. The less it develops the more of a threat it becomes to the US mainland because it won't get drawn up nearly as soon. A more southern track( southeastern coast, or even GOM) might be in order. I'd hate to see one of the poorer big islands (DR esp.) take it on the chin again after what happened in the spring.
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James88
Weather Master
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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I agree. Hopefully the DR will have a respite from storms this season.
This system may well become a threat - especially if it does somehow remain south and track into the very warm GOM. I don't want to speculate, but it's something to bear in mind.
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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The plane is leaving the storm. I was hoping they'd give another fix before they left.
Appears there may be a problem with GOES east. I've tried 2 different sources and I'm getting missed frames.
However, last frame on 91L shows white tops,NE quad, on the IR loop.
Appears that the western side of the overall circ. is over the Antilles now. I can't tell if it's associated with high pressure overhead, southerly shear in advance, or some other pressure gradient. Lower clouds over the Antilles are moving to the NNE, while the higher clouds are moving in the general direction of W. The higher clouds appear to be moving at the same speed as 91L.
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastnheir.html
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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How will it affect the waters N of PR and DR when its in the Caribbean? Did I miss something here?
AGXX40 KNHC 030619
MIMATS
220 AM EDT TUE AUG 03 2004
OTHER SYSTEM OF INTEREST FOR
LATE WEEK INTO WEEKEND IS THE LOW CURRENTLY E OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS WHICH SHOULD BEGIN AFFECTING THE WATERS N OF PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA...ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASE IN WIND AND SEAS.
MORE DETAILS ON THIS SYSTEM IN THE CARIBBEAN/TROPICAL ATLC
SECTION BELOW.
LOW E OF WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 12N51W IS MOVING WNW AND STILL
FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED. HOWEVER...YESTERDAY'S QUIKSCAT DATA
INDICATED WINDS NO HIGHER THAN 25 KT AND RECENT OBS FROM
DRIFTING BUOYS SUGGEST LOWEST PRESSURES ABOUT 1012-1013 MB WHICH
IS UNCHANGED FROM 18 HOURS AGO. LOW WILL CROSS 55W LATE TONIGHT
AND MOVE THROUGH THE LESSER ANTILLES WED NIGHT/ EARLY THU...THEN OVER E CARIBBEAN WATERS FRI/SAT.
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James88
Weather Master
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Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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The latest advisory puts Alex up to 80mph with the possibility of further strengthening today.
Edited by James88 (Tue Aug 03 2004 04:53 AM)
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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woke up to find they bumped it up to hurricane status
waiting for 5am, wave/bonnie looks good...there
rolling along
rain, rain and more rain
seems a lot of tropical moisture around.. wouldn't count out something nebulous forming from all the rain left behind as mentioned.. long shot but possible
alex looking good
later..bobbi
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Looks like the Outer Banks may escape by the skin of their teeth! As long as the track doesnt shift left Alex's dangerous core should remain just offshore. However, i do expect somewhere along the coast to experience hurricane force wind gusts. The eye seems better defined on Radar from Wilmington now than an hour ago too, so perhaps Alex could strengthen a little more. If he carries on strengthening he could possibly make it near Cat 2 intensity later today.
Even though the TNumbers for 91L may have dropped a little, its appearance is excellent, and i think we will see it classified today. I am guessing the only reason it wasnt classified at 0900z is that they may be waiting for the visibles to try and see if that sheds more light on the structure and intensity of this one. Think the islands should watch it very closely!
Regards 
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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James88
Weather Master
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Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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The once again says that 91L may develop into a TD today. I agree with you Rich, it certainly looks impressive. 92L further east has become a little better organised, but the cool waters nearby will keep the system in check for the next couple of days.
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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
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Strange thing with 91L is now none of the other models are picking it up only and that model has it shooting up north, all 08/03- 000z models don't show 91L, guess wait and see plus having a pressure of 1012 -1013 is not low.
Dave
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jlauderdal
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Tue
Posts: 97
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FLorida
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Quote:
How will it affect the waters N of PR and DR when its in the Caribbean? Did I miss something here?
AGXX40 KNHC 030619
MIMATS
220 AM EDT TUE AUG 03 2004
OTHER SYSTEM OF INTEREST FOR
LATE WEEK INTO WEEKEND IS THE LOW CURRENTLY E OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS WHICH SHOULD BEGIN AFFECTING THE WATERS N OF PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA...ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASE IN WIND AND SEAS.
MORE DETAILS ON THIS SYSTEM IN THE CARIBBEAN/TROPICAL ATLC
SECTION BELOW.
LOW E OF WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 12N51W IS MOVING WNW AND STILL
FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED. HOWEVER...YESTERDAY'S QUIKSCAT DATA
INDICATED WINDS NO HIGHER THAN 25 KT AND RECENT OBS FROM
DRIFTING BUOYS SUGGEST LOWEST PRESSURES ABOUT 1012-1013 MB WHICH
IS UNCHANGED FROM 18 HOURS AGO. LOW WILL CROSS 55W LATE TONIGHT
AND MOVE THROUGH THE LESSER ANTILLES WED NIGHT/ EARLY THU...THEN OVER E CARIBBEAN WATERS FRI/SAT.
Making a claim at this point that it will go into the Carribbean is a stretch. PR NWS discussion says it appears it will be NE of the island. That is a big difference in thinking during hurricane season in that part of the atlantic basin.
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