SirCane
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 249
Loc: Pensacola, FL
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Yep, TD #2 is on its way back. Gulf coast could be in for a double wammy.  
TD #3 could be especially bad. I could see it becomming a MAJOR hurricane.
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Direct Hits:
Hurricane Erin (1995) 100 mph
Hurricane Opal (1995) 115 mph
Hurricane Ivan (2004) 130 mph
Hurricane Dennis (2005) 120 mph
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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000
URNT11 KNHC 091946
97779 19464 20230 88200 03600 17036 23218 /0014 41720
RMK AF963 0302A INVEST OB 12
looks like TD2 is back.....
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rickonboat
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 90
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the system in the gulf appears to be needing a little time before I get a feel for what it might do. The low pressure system off of LA is throwing a few curves, and I am way too much the novice to guess.
However, our little monster in the caribbean is easy to figure.
cat 4-5 in 5 days or less...weeping and gnashing of teeth in about a week.
a big one on the way
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Joe
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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Ok latest recon data has winds found at 30kts at 210 degrees, and 28 kts at 222 degrees. Pressure 1014mb, this is what has been found so far....
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Joe
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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Ok as of 3:46 pm recon ob...winds 36kts at 170 degrees, 18 kts at 232 degrees, pressure 1014mb
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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More to come...
A
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Note corrected wind
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teal61
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sun
Posts: 61
Loc: Spring, TX (30.1N 95.5W)
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Vortex Msg check out the max fl winds.
URNT12 KNHC 092001
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 09/2001Z
B. 23 DEG 03 MIN N
88 DEG 37 MIN W
C. NA
D. 55 KT
E. 065 DEG 004 NM
F. 132 DEG 56 KT
G. 060 DEG 005 NM
H. EXTRAP 1007 MB
I. 25 C/ 322 M
J. 26 C/ 334 M
K. 24 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 /1
O. 1/1 NM
P. AF963 0302A INVEST OB 13
MAX FL WIND 56 KT SE QUAD 1952Z. SLP EXTRAP FROM
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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NHC does not appear to carry the latest vortex messages as quick as this, does anyone know where else the latest can be found?
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BillD
User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
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Actually the 23218 is the temp (23) and dewpoint (21) and 8=rain. Also that last set of numbers, 41720 is surface level winds, 170 at 20kts.
Bill
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andy1tom
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
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i suggest printing the thing so you are not having to go back to the page all the time.. decoding made easy
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teal61
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sun
Posts: 61
Loc: Spring, TX (30.1N 95.5W)
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http://nimbus.met.tamu.edu/personnel/students/weather/weather_interface.html
Under select station put KNHC, select how many hours back you want under time period and then select raw data. and on the drop dowm menu pick reconnaisance.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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the cir over LA looks to be heading out into the gulf....(east)... could it be another one? want be long until its off the coast and south of mobile.. water temps around 86...air tmp upper 80's.... FL panhandle looks to be in for alot of rain in the next few days.
what kind of effect will it have on xTD2?
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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its bonnie now
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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wundeground tracking info
TD2 becomes Bonnie before TD3
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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James88
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Well, the track forecast takes Bonnie into the Florida Panhandle as a TS in around 3 days. What implications could this have for the future ?
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE (AL022004) ON 20040809 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040809 1800 040810 0600 040810 1800 040811 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 23.0N 88.6W 23.6N 89.9W 24.2N 90.9W 24.9N 91.3W
BAMM 23.0N 88.6W 23.7N 89.8W 24.3N 90.4W 25.1N 90.1W
A98E 23.0N 88.6W 24.1N 90.5W 25.3N 91.9W 26.6N 92.1W
LBAR 23.0N 88.6W 23.9N 90.2W 24.9N 91.5W 26.1N 92.1W
SHIP 40KTS 51KTS 60KTS 68KTS
DSHP 40KTS 51KTS 60KTS 68KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040811 1800 040812 1800 040813 1800 040814 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 26.0N 90.7W 29.1N 85.2W 34.7N 79.5W 41.6N 72.4W
BAMM 25.8N 89.0W 26.9N 85.1W 29.6N 81.8W 34.4N 75.9W
A98E 27.8N 91.2W 31.2N 87.7W 37.0N 79.6W 46.9N 65.2W
LBAR 27.8N 91.5W 31.9N 85.1W 39.8N 72.7W 44.2N 62.9W
SHIP 76KTS 83KTS 73KTS 60KTS
DSHP 76KTS 83KTS 48KTS 38KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 23.0N LONCUR = 88.6W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 22.0N LONM12 = 86.6W DIRM12 = 292DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 20.9N LONM24 = 84.3W
WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 25NM RD34SE = 25NM RD34SW = 25NM RD34NW = 25NM
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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I've been monitoring this little wannabe system since early yesterday morning, when I first noticed the twist in the mid level off the se tip of Cuba early on Sunday....... its nice to see the system come to fruition, making that Tropical Cyclone status... what an exciting next 10 days we could have with Bonnie and TD3.... regardless, the comeback is complete for this little system as far as I'm concerned as it battled back from the Caribbean graveyard to make a game of it...
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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000
WTNT72 KNHC 092031
SPFAT2
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT MON AUG 09 2004
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF BONNIE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.7 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 1PM CDT THU AUG 12 2004
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
25.3N 90.3W 42 1 X X 43 PANAMA CITY FL X X 2 11 13
26.5N 90.2W 19 8 1 X 28 PENSACOLA FL X X 4 11 15
27.4N 89.5W 4 16 3 1 24 MOBILE AL X X 6 10 16
MUAN 219N 850W X X X 2 2 GULFPORT MS X 1 9 7 17
W PALM BEACH FL X X X 2 2 BURAS LA X 5 10 4 19
FT PIERCE FL X X X 2 2 NEW ORLEANS LA X 3 10 5 18
COCOA BEACH FL X X X 3 3 NEW IBERIA LA X 4 9 4 17
DAYTONA BEACH FL X X X 4 4 PORT ARTHUR TX X 2 6 4 12
JACKSONVILLE FL X X X 5 5 GALVESTON TX X 2 4 4 10
SAVANNAH GA X X X 4 4 FREEPORT TX X 1 3 3 7
CHARLESTON SC X X X 2 2 PORT O CONNOR TX X X 2 2 4
KEY WEST FL X X X 2 2 GULF 29N 85W X X 2 10 12
MARCO ISLAND FL X X X 3 3 GULF 29N 87W X 1 7 8 16
FT MYERS FL X X X 4 4 GULF 28N 89W 1 13 5 2 21
VENICE FL X X X 6 6 GULF 28N 91W 1 18 3 1 23
TAMPA FL X X X 6 6 GULF 28N 93W X 13 3 2 18
CEDAR KEY FL X X X 8 8 GULF 28N 95W X 3 3 3 9
ST MARKS FL X X X 10 10 GULF 27N 96W X 1 1 2 4
APALACHICOLA FL X X 1 11 12 GULF 25N 96W X X X 2 2
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1PM TUE
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 1PM TUE TO 1AM WED
C FROM 1AM WED TO 1PM WED
D FROM 1PM WED TO 1PM THU
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1PM THU
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER STEWART
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Yep. Finally. Now that it's officially been named, I'll be greatly enjoying my crow!
--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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