andy1tom
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
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LOL Yes it is.. stocked my kit this morning to avoid the crowd.. good thing cause the store was packed. if the warnings go up don't they have to open up shelters? if so all the shelters are schools. also noticed that with the models seem to have landfall moved up about 6 hours. am i right on that? last nite they were saying late morning now it is early morning.
Edited by andy1tom (Tue Aug 10 2004 06:03 PM)
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Storm Cooper
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Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
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That is up to Bay county if and when they open but yes most are the schools.
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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rickonboat
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 90
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Bonnie is going through "pulsing"....fighting the shear, and then re-flaring . I think she is in the middle of re-charging. Wonder, however, what the experts on our board, the HankFranks and Phil, and our other moderators thiink about Bonnie.
Any of you of the opinion she will dissipate?...
I no longer believe the Florida panhandle scenario. It seems too far to the east, though I only have a gut feel that the front isn't strong enough to whip it over there in time. The tables will be set for Bonnie in about 12 hours.
What about the small eye?....any one have a good understanding of whether that implies greater resiliency to drier air or not?....
Bonnie will continue to be unpredictable....
Charley will be in the gulf by Friday, and in Mobile early next week....
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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Poor initialization maybe. .Also new data helps quite a bit.. Its not uncommon for these models to fluctuate especially this far out..
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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bobbi
Unregistered
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Take a look at this loop. I find it amazing if you study it.
Looks to me like the infamous trough is already trying to grab and ignoring Bonnie. Not saying will lift NW suddenly but its trying to grab it.. doesnt seem to be doing much for Bonnie.
http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html
ps..u can see many influences on this site that are invisible on other sites
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LI Phil
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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>>> Wonder, however, what the experts on our board, the HankFranks and Phil, and our other moderators thiink about Bonnie.
Excuse me, did you just call me an "expert"? LOL! I'm slowly learning, yes, but an expert? Heh. No, I couldn't make any more than a half-as--ed guess. Maybe the Rabbit could tell you...he must be back in his burrow for now.
I'll say, PCB, winds 85 kts, Thursday morning at 7:42. How's that? 
BTW, SSD is awfully slow getting the 's out 
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
Edited by LI Phil (Tue Aug 10 2004 06:19 PM)
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Storm Cooper
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Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
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A part of the AFD from Tally....
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...FORECAST WILL BE
BASED ON THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL. BONNIE SHOULD CONTINUE
TO LIFT TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT BEFORE TURNING TO THE NORTHEAST AND
ACCELERATING WEDNESDAY AS DEEP LAYER SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES AHEAD
OF A DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. LATEST PROJECTED LANDFALL
IS IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z THURSDAY AS A
MINIMAL HURRICANE. WATCHES MAY BE POSTED FOR ALL OR A PORTION OF OUR
COASTAL COUNTIES ON THE NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE. GRID POPS THE NEXT
FEW DAYS ARE GENERALLY IN LINE WITH LATEST MOS POPS WHICH ARE IN THE
LIKELY RANGE. BONNIE CONTINUES TO PULL TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH A FRONT ENTERING AND CUTTING MIDWAY ACROSS OUR CWA BY 12Z
FRI.
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
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There is a forming low east of North Florida looking at the IR it maybe pulling more to the north, wait and see what Recon Finds.
Dave
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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
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Air Recon: Bonnie not as storng this afternoon.
000
URNT12 KNHC 101728
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 10/1728Z
B. 24 DEG 25 MIN N
90 DEG 38 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1470 M
D. 40 KT
E. 055 DEG 13 NM
F. 146 DEG 38 KT
G. 043 DEG 053 NM
H. 1005 MB
I. 18 C/ 1538 M
J. 24 C/ 1539 M
K. 16 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/08
O. 0.1/5 NM
P. AF977 0502A BONNIE OB 04
MAX FL WIND 38 KT NE QUAD 1702Z.
Dave
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Storm Cooper
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Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
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Saw that... she has her issues and only time will tell!
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Shes looks more subtropical and unlikely to form into anything .
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Bonnie appears to be making its move to the northeast !
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html
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bobbi
Unregistered
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???
dont see her making a move til she crosses the line
watching tho
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jth
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 275
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She's not moving NE, the thunderstorms are coming back around her giving her that appearance. Still moving NNW.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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what a day, President Bush (also is sending someone to PCB tonight!). Bush is schedule to be Panama City this afternoon..... good timin... he can tour before and after storm damage!!!! looks like there goin to be alot of water in the panhandle in the next 72 hrs+.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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URNT12 KNHC 101846
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 10/1846Z
B. 24 DEG 28 MIN N
90 DEG 38 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1465 M
D. 35 KT
E. 135 DEG 26 NM
F. 233 DEG 43 KT
G. 135 DEG 012 NM
H. 1004 MB
I. 18 C/ 1524 M
J. 24 C/ 1507 M
K. 16 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/08
O. 0.1/5 NM
P. AF977 0502A BONNIE OB 09
MAX FL WIND 43 KT SE QUAD 1842Z.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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URNT11 KNHC 101854
97779 18544 30164 73000 57700 04017 56663 /4588
RMK AF966 0103A OB 13
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FlaRebel
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 59
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
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This model has him clipping south FL out to open water and up the East coast.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfdl/charley03l/fcst/index.html
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Quote:
This model has him clipping south FL out to open water and up the East coast.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfdl/charley03l/fcst/index.html
As long as he doesn't get into the north central gulf I will be happy 
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
Edited by LI Phil (Tue Aug 10 2004 07:21 PM)
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Steve hirschb.
Unregistered
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That's a pretty big clip! uh....what's the intensity? Doesn't look like it will get too strong ifit follows that path. 
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