MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Tropical Depression Three has been upgraded to this year's third named storm. is still moving generally west northwest, and the environment ahead of it is good for development so it's expected to become a hurricane over the next few days. It's motion puts Jamaica a little close and as it tracks further westward there is some debate if it will move over the Yucatan or shoot the straights into the Gulf of Mexico. It's a bit too far off to be certain on that, but either way it will be worth watching later.
I say later, because of Tropical Storm Bonnie is the wildcard of the Gulf. Although current landfall has it going in around Panama City Florida. Which I'm sure is going to make Jason Kelley busy. The wildcard part of it is the storms intensity and speed.
I mentioned yesterday about the size of Bonnie, it's small, and thus very sensitive to changes. It could ramp up quickly, or die dow just as quickly. Its small size lends it to potentially be very dangerous to right around the center of landfall if it were on the strengthening phase when it makes landfall. Folks along the Gulf coast there from Lousiana to Florida (and especially the panhandle) most definitely need to check up on the storm often. Things could change lightning fast with this storm.
Other than that possibility, right now the official intensity and track forecast puts it in as barely a category one Hurricane. But with the caveat that it could change.
Regardless, I will repeat one more time, people on that part of the Gulf Coast (perhaps more of the gulf if the track trends westward) need to keep an extremely close watch on what this system does.
If it does make landfall around Panama City, its track after that is interesting, bringing it through the southeast up into Virginia and beyond, it could be a potential flood event for places along the way as well.
Event Related Links
More later...
Event Related Links
The Caribbean Hurricane Page - updates from the islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
General Links
Current Aircraft Recon Info
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.
Follow worldwide SST evolution here:
Global SST Animation
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, , , JMA, , UKMET
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Multi-model plots from WREL
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.
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James88
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Charley is now up to 40kts and is forecasted to reach CAT 2 strength over the GOM. Bonnie is up to 50kts and is expected to intensify to 70kts prior to landfall.
Edited by James88 (Tue Aug 10 2004 10:38 AM)
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joepub1
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
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Jamaica has issued TS warnings and is est. to be 1005mb. The fun begins??? Recon late this afternoon.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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URNT11 KNHC 101430
97779 14304 30281 89100 52300 99005 54632 /4591
RMK AF966 0103A OB 01
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BugsBunny
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 42
Loc: Florida
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Bonnie might just be pulling an Alex on us here--up to mph now
Charley is expected to get pretty close to Louisiana near the 16th
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forecast: 17/14/9/5
to date: 3/3/2/1
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joepub1
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
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You know, when it said 'recon later today' my eyes read 'late today'. Eyes just not kicking in today. Brain is telling me that what's left of Bonnie will pass just to the north of my backyard in a few days, but these don't usually add up to much. The're pretty dry by the time I see them, but I'll take anything at the moment.
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BugsBunny
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 42
Loc: Florida
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for anyone who was up very early this morning, my "tropical wave" theory obviously didn't pan out--maybe I was just tired 
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forecast: 17/14/9/5
to date: 3/3/2/1
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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28.1 89.1 PUTS RECON NEAR OR SOUTH OF MOBILE
LONG WAY TO GO.... PASS BY BONNIE IN HR OR SO
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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000
WTNT42 KNHC 101437
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE AUG 10 2004
AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE DATA THIS MORNING INDICATE BONNIE
HAS MAINTAINED A TIGHT INNER-CORE WIND FIELD...DESPITE THE
NORTHERLY SHEAR AFFECTING THE CYCLONE. DROPSONDE DATA NEAR THE
CENTER INDICATED 70 KT WINDS JUST A COUPLE HUNDRED FEET ABOVE THE
SURFACE WITH SURFACE WINDS OF AROUND 51 KT. A SECOND DROPSONDE ALSO
MISSED THE CENTER AND REPORTED A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 1003 MB. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT A CONSERVATIVE 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY
AND THE PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...A LITTLE BELOW THE MEASURED PRESSURE.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/07. MORNING 12Z UPPER-AIR DATA
INDICATE THAT A BREAK IN THE GULF OF MEXICO MID-LEVEL RIDGE HAS
OCCURRED AT 500 MB...WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS PUSHED INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
BEHIND THE TROUGH OVER TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
GRADUAL SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN MORE TOWARD THE
NORTH LATER TODAY. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS...AND
IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE MODEL GUIDANCE. BY 36-48 HOURS...A
SECOND AND STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THAT TROUGH SHOULD ACT TO ACCELERATE BONNIE TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH LANDFALL OCCURRING IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE IN 48-60
HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 36 HOURS...AND THEN FASTER AND TO THE RIGHT
AFTER THAT. A 96-HOUR POSITION WAS ADDED FOR CONTINUITY SINCE THE
BONNIE CIRCULATION MAY BECOME A SIGNIFICANT LOW CLOSE
TO THE U.S. EAST COAST AFTER 72 HOURS.
BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...WHICH MAY RESULT IN RAPID INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS. HOWEVER
...THE CURRENT NORTHERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO LIGHT
WESTERLY SHEAR BY 36 HOURS AS BONNIE PASSES OVER OR NEAR A WARM
EDDY IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR UNTIL STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
KICKS IN AROUND 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE LATEST SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST...
BUT IS MUCH LOWER THAN THE MODEL WHICH MAKES BONNIE A 102 KT
MAJOR HURRICANE AT LANDFALL. THE SOLUTION IS BEING DISCOUNTED
AT THIS TIME SINCE IT RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES BONNIE IN BETWEEN 36 TO
48 HOURS...IN THE FACE OF 50-60 KT UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.
THE NOAA G-IV JET WILL CONDUCT A MISSION IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF
BONNIE THIS EVENING TO IMPROVE THE INITIAL CONDITION FOR THE
NUMERICAL TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS. A SPECIAL THANKS TO THE GULF OF
MEXICO NWS OFFICES...AND INLAND WFO FORT WORTH AND WFO NORMAN...FOR
THE 6 HOURLY UPPER-AIR OBSERVATIONS TO HELP IMPROVE THE FORECASTS.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 10/1500Z 24.2N 90.6W 50 KT
12HR VT 11/0000Z 25.0N 90.8W 55 KT
24HR VT 11/1200Z 26.2N 90.3W 60 KT
36HR VT 12/0000Z 27.4N 89.0W 65 KT
48HR VT 12/1200Z 29.5N 86.2W 70 KT
72HR VT 13/1200Z 35.5N 77.5W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 14/1200Z 49.0N 70.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 15/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT OR LOW
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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sure you were tired rabbit what time did u go to bed?
as for , wish he'd slow down.. how fast is he going to end up going at this rate? then again.. will slow down development, right?
is bonnie turning or not?
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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000
WTNT32 KNHC 101444
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT TUE AUG 10 2004
...BONNIE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWESTWARD
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...
INTERESTS IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BONNIE.
AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.6 WEST OR ABOUT
350 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
BONNIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED
LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
BONNIE REMAINS A VERY SMALL TROPICAL STORM AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS ONLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...24.2 N... 90.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE National Hurricane Center
AT 4 PM CDT.
FORECASTER STEWART
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BugsBunny
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 42
Loc: Florida
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went to bed at 5:30
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forecast: 17/14/9/5
to date: 3/3/2/1
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Too much JB to post here, so just the blood and guts...he sees Bonnie strengthening to a hurricane, possibly as strong as a CAT II, landfalling Thursday morning between Dauphin Island and Apalachicola. It does not die inland, however, as he feels it will shoot up the east coast all the way to west of Boston.
He's a little more uncertain on (who, like Mike C., keeps jokingly calling Clyde), but doesn't see this one recurving, but rather making a WGOM hit, possibly as a CAT IV!
Both of these puppies need to be watched carefully...cuz there is a very good chance they're gonna turn into BIG DOGZ soon.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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maybe its just me, or the sun coming up. but could bonnie be taking a peak at the sun? alson is there a nnw movement i am starting to see?
the northern side looks to be losing storms.... some shear is affecting her wake up this morning. can't wait til NOAA recon. shouldd get good data around storm.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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URNT11 KNHC 101500
97779 15004 30259 88100 57100 99005 56622 /4592
RMK AF966 0103A OB 03
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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I am a little curious. Is this trough coming in the gulf now expected to be strong enough to start to turn Bonnie. She looks to be moving just north of WNW right now. What about the front coming down in a couple of days that is expected to make it into the gulf? Any chance of that slowing down or being weaker than forecast by the time it arrives? Just a little concerned on the affects it will have on the two storms.
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Just an aside: anyone in and around Tallahassee who happens to tune in to the public radio station - not sure what it is on the FM dial - will likely get to hear my comments on T.S. Bonnie over the air. They called my boss, who had me come to the phone and talk about the latest developments at 11am (almost without having read the advisory -- had to use a special source to get it!) - sorta preparing me for on-the-fly responses in later life, I guess!
In other news, I thought Bonnie looked more ragged this morning than it did yesterday, but the hurricane hunters suggest otherwise. Goes to show you how much satellite interpretation is but one tool in identifying intensity of a storm; if only we could send recon out to more storms. However, things are still looking like a path somewhere between Apalachicola and Pensacola (as I told headlines), but I'd really narrow that down a bit to Ft. Walton on the west side. Latest path is a bit further east than the 5am path was.
Charlie is not shaping up to be a very friendly one, if you want to use those terms. The track was nudged quite a bit east for the first time with the 11am advisory, calling for a landfall in about 5 and a half days in the same general area as Bonnie. If the & are to be believed, the storm could impact the Apalachicola area (GFDL says cat 3 intensity), which as I mentioned in another thread yesterday is a potentially disasterous path for the Wakulla County/St. Marks Wildlife Refuge area. I don't have the storm surge maps for North Florida handy - perhaps later today - but a Cat. 3 would put much of Wakulla under water just with the storm surge. Again, that's 5.5 days out and it's too early to tell what will happen, but it's never too early to be getting prepared - which is exactly what everyone from Galveston to Key West should be doing right now, particularly everyone along the NW Florida coast for what looks to be a landfall minimal hurricane in about two days' time.
Hope to have the storm surge maps for North Florida & some output from the Superensemble later today, but don't hold me to it.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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BugsBunny
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 42
Loc: Florida
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AUG--5/2/1
SEP--5/4/3
OCT--4/2/1
NOV--1/1/0
may have to increase the August numbers pretty soon if we keep getting storms--we got 3 storms in the first third of the month, and there will verly likely be at least three more
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forecast: 17/14/9/5
to date: 3/3/2/1
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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some what of a storm surge map
storm surge
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Anyone know where Jim's going? If the models are to be believed, he may be able to set up shop at the Spinacker in PCB for a week or so.
Mi amigos in PCB (Coop, JK, Andy1), best of luck to you...and of course everyone else from New Orleans to Tampa.
Guess this makes up for the slow start to the season... 
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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