Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Seems to be some server hiccups today - haven't been able to get around recently.
Charley's a hurricane now and Bonnie's up to 65mph. If Bonnie's center consolidates under the deep convection - a big if, mind you - it could strengthen some more. I tend to think it will remain on the NW edge of the convection, however, limiting it's strengthening potential. I think the window is going to close in 6-12hr.
12z Superensemble run on both storms was near Panama City still for Bonnie, getting to about 60mph (which was relatively high amongst the models), with approaching cat 2/3 status in a couple of days with ultimate landfall near Sarasota, on the left end of the 12Z track ensemble.
UKMet 12Z is out to lunch with Bonnie - it's not diving east and hitting Tampa. It's also out to lunch with Charlie - it's not moving into the central Gulf, it doesn't seem - but stranger things have happened.
I'll be heading down to the coast this evening to catch Bonnie as she comes ashore. I have a friend taking two broadcast-quality high-definition cameras along for the ride; I'll have some met. equipment to try and take obs. No Internet access while I'm gone, but I hope to have pictures, obs, and video shortly after getting back. Still holding to my guns of Laguna Beach, I think, but want to drop along the coast if at all possible.
Cantore & Morrow are going to the Tampa area for ; Mike Seidel is moving to Panama City for Bonnie.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Lastest run looks to actually shift slightly east. Even a little stronger in the winds before landfall. Not sure I buy it as has a bad habit of over doing the winds. With officially a Hurricane, things should get even more interesting. Assume there may be Hurricane watches for the West Florida coast up to Cedar Key at the 5:30 advisory.
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teal61
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 61
Loc: Spring, TX (30.1N 95.5W)
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I'm seeing some posts that maybe some of the models are starting to trend back to the west. I haven't really looked at the so I don't know, but I have plotted the recon fixes from yesterday through the latest this morning and have come to this conclusion:
First fix yesterday was at 15.2/70.4, the latest fix this morning was at 16.4/76.4 this yields a motion of about 275 to 280 degrees max. This is less than the 285 to 290 TPC had been using with their center estimates while there was no recon.
Looking at zoomed in visibles this morning still seems to show a mostly westward motion at this time. Also seems to be moving at a slower speed. It only stands to reason that the models may begin to trend back westward. I'm sure he will eventually be pulled northward by the trough but depending on how far south he stays now the could be a small chance of missing the turn to the northeast and eventually turning back to the west or northwest as high pressure builds in behind the trough. It wouldn't be the first time this has happened, although this trough is unusually strong. They key is how far south he stays before making the initial turn.
One other note, is already 150 to 175 miles south of the forecast track from last night and early this morning and we are talking about the first 12 hours or so of the forecast. Thats a fairly large error. You have to think that a 120 hour forecast will also be affected
I'm no profesional, just making some observations based on the recon data which I do consider concrete. Time will tell and we all will be watching.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Quote:
Sorry folks for the downtime, upstream provider had router issues.
Wecome back  I missed you
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
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bobbi
Unregistered
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I've heard a lot of talk today about where the exact location of the eye is...its important for models but if the big round ball that is mostly N and NE of the eye has hurricane force winds you have to watch the whole red bouncing ball.
Please keep that in mind.
Rely on the charts which show where the path of tropical storm force winds and hurricane winds are not just the eye.
Getting off the soap box.
Good job the Hurricane Center is doing..original tracks had it going just south of jamaica if I recall and then turning up towards the West coast of Cuba making a curve towards the West Coast of Florida. So far.. on track. How far west or east is the big issue.
Does anyone think that by that time can be a major or just a cat 2?
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rickonboat
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 90
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I think they have missed something on . Either I am blind, the screen is tilted, or a combination...the latest visible loops sure look like a wwnw heading to me....and there doesn't appear anything on the immediate 24 hour horizon to change the direction much...which sure seems like a more westerly, even south of Cuba perhaps....direction. Anyone want to help me with what I THINK I am seeing?
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Steve hirschb.
Unregistered
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Well, Looking at the vis loops, is now heading south of due west.........this may change things if it misses the trough.
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Storm Cooper
User
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Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
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As Bonnie gets stronger it will possibly affect the front and may push it back and may allow Charlie to come more west. This is getting interesting.
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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SirCane
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 249
Loc: Pensacola, FL
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I'm thinking is going to end up further West than is being predicted.........
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Direct Hits:
Hurricane Erin (1995) 100 mph
Hurricane Opal (1995) 115 mph
Hurricane Ivan (2004) 130 mph
Hurricane Dennis (2005) 120 mph
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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The further jog to the west is a bad thing, IMHO. I still do subscribe to the recurvature. Just don't like the idea of the storm making a wider swing and possibly giving it extra time to suck up the warm water of the GOM.
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James88
Weather Master
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Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Would anyone happen to have a link to a radar in Jamaica that shows the hurricane?
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bobbi
Unregistered
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think she wants to be a Cane.. somehow..someway
something going on in her center?
http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html
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tom5r
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 49
Loc: Islamorada, Florida
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Just shortly before 1:00 pm today the florida keys ordered a mandatory evacuation for all non residents. The traffic heading out is getting pretty heavy. I guess there's lots of bummed out vacationers. 
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Cocoa Beach
Unregistered
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If it's moving more WEST, than why hasn't moved there track more to the WEST?
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT03/refresh/AL0304W+GIF/111508W.gif
I printed this track off first thing this morning and then again now. The track has moved to the East a bit.
Doesn't really matter at a CAT 2, Central Florida will still feel s affect. TS winds extending out 125 miles or so.
Just what we need, a little excitement!, not too much just a little. 
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Bobbi
Unregistered
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Which best compares to this storm... two options that some see around here...
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1981/DENNIS/track.gif
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1980/ALLEN/track.gif
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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http://www.nws.noaa.gov/dm-cgi-bin/nsd_lookup.pl?station=MKJP
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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They have not moved it becuase it is still on track with a lot of models. It is not a significant jog. Their forecast path seemed to be to the right of the models and still does seem to be slightly. I think they may nudge the track to the left a little at five; but expect it to still show landfall between Ft Meyers and Tampa Bay.
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bobbi
Unregistered
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Think is doing good. A track forecast is based on many things. The eye formed to the SW part of the storm. Was it found there or did it move there.. we didnt have a good previous fix.
Constant motion not fluxuations.
We are in for the long haul.
This is the end result..the orientation of approach is the issue.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT03/refresh/AL0304W+GIF/111508W.gif
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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latest coordinate fixes demonstrate a slightly north of east track...this is confirmed by satellite observation...if this continues Bonnie will have to turn north to hit the warning area...on a straight line Tampa to Cedar Key are in the direct path.
The UKMET may not be so out to linch after all.
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doug
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James88
Weather Master
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Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Thanks!
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