MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Hurricane Warnings are up for the Florida Keys now.
Bonnie is being affected greatly by vertical shear at present and now I think it will maintain just Tropical Storm status as it makes landfall.
on the other hand is still good for potential strengthening, and the 's official track has moved a bit west toward Tampa as a landfall point, but at a very indirect angle, but the says this could change. And with the new data from the Gulfstream jet the trends can now be much better verified.
However, I think more surprises with are still to come. I do think it will strengthen some more. Everyone in Florida should keep watch of it. With the biggest question is will the trough pick him up or not. There is one scenario that drops Charely off in the Gulf to linger a bit, but I'm not sold on that one yet,. And just to muddy it up more for you, yes there is a fairly decent chance the track will nudge back east a bit later today too.
Currently the National Hurricane Center has what I consider the best bet.
* site note * our automatic tracking map has been disabled temporarily due to a crash issue with the map generation program.
Event RelatedLinks
Hurricane City is having live audio and video broadcasts throughout the day on Bonnie/Charley and Jim's Audio show is from 8PM to 11PM EST
All model "Spaghetti" for Bonnie/Charlie from hurricanealley
Another Multi-Model Track plot for
General Links
Current Aircraft Recon Info
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.
Follow worldwide SST evolution here:
Global SST Animation
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, , , JMA, , UKMET
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Multi-model plots from WREL
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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If my eyes are not deceiving me it sure looks like the eye of is visible on the latest GOES shot... I have it at 19.4N and 80.8W... with some significant convection building on the NE and SW eye wall... size of eye looks rather small from the pix... also still looks to be moving off to the NW.... IMO
This could be setting up the Tampa area for a really bad scenario.... If you are in this area, and you have never experience a Cat 3 storm, I would highly recommend that you EVACUATE..... if told to do so.... and immediately....
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JimAnderson
Registered User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 9
Loc: Fort Monroe Virginia
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First post for '04. My job has taken me from Fort Bragg, NC to Fort Monroe VA. Let me tell you, the folks here in Tidewater VA are watching these storms, Charlie in particular after their brush with Isabel last year.
I am using this forum and all of your comments, links and insights to keep my co-workers from panicing over, what to us, will be just a bad rainstorm.
Watchin' and waitin'
Jim
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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I don't think we in Tampa Bay area will have a good idea of what is up to until around 5:00pm or later tonight. Until then, we should use good judgement and realize that the inland areas between Tampa and Daytona Beach need to be aware of Tornadic activity and prolonged wind. Even 45 mph winds will eventually wear down tree limbs, signs, and debris if repeatedly hit over 12 hour period or longer. The flooding will be an issue for inland too as we have had much, much rain over the last two months. Sand is a good soaker but, sink holes opening over highway structures and under homes that have not had new sod laid down in several years is also a danger. These are my thoughts this morning. I have to go to work and find out when my office facility will be shut down or even IF it will be shut down.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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jth
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 275
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Mike C,
Are the changes reflected in any models available to the public now?
Charley appears to have possibly moved more westerly again over the past few hours. Also, if you check the surface winds out ahead of Chrley, they are all easterly, not SE. Could the high be stronger up there and shunt back of west for a while? They mentioed a couple of models made drastic shifts to their tracks. Do you have a link to those models?
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Quote:
Mike C,
Are the changes reflected in any models available to the public now?
Charley appears to have possibly moved more westerly again over the past few hours. Also, if you check the surface winds out ahead of Chrley, they are all easterly, not SE. Could the high be stronger up there and shunt back of west for a while? They mentioed a couple of models made drastic shifts to their tracks. Do you have a link to those models?
I'm referencing the discussion of the there, all the model links I used are listed at the end of the article. And I'm sure there are more and others could let us know.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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From last recon... wind speeds should pick up from the dropping pressure... its getting stronger
995 to 984mb drop from prior recon
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Londovir
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 112
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Good morning all! Short night with only 4 hrs sleep for all of us. Watching and waiting to see what goes down with .
Latest recon from 1154Z has at 19'14N, 80'42W, pressure of 984mb, and highest winds of 83kts observed (95.45mph)
That's a little more relieving (short term) than what I saw before I went to bed 4 hours ago with 98kt winds observed.
Still, gonna be messy no matter where this thing goes. Hoping that it will somehow weaken rather than build. Not going to happen, but maybe enough positive wishing can help out some. All I know was went to bed thinking it would roll over our heads in Lakeland, and now we're gonna get hammered with northeast quadrant winds. Ugh.
Londovir
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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GO TO WEB .THAT REPORT IS THE 5AM DISCUSSION A BIG CHANGE TO THE LEFT COULD BE COMING THEY ARE WAITING FOR MORE DATA HOW MUCH ONLY TIME WILL TELL
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jth
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 275
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I read the discussion. What I'm asking is for something that will show me where the new models predict. The link above is a minor left shift. Are they just anticipating the models to have a major shift or have a few already done it that aren't yet available to the public?
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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Hi.. watching the loops more than the various discussion. I think its too early to believe in too much discussion until the storm actually crosses Cuba. From experience they can do funny things. Everyone here seems to never mention the crossing of Cuba and there is an impt element here that no one is talking about.
Bonnie is racing.
The front is digging
Most of the weather is on right side of
It hasn't crossed Cuba
We haven't even started the 4th quarter and everyone is writing post game analysis.
My opinon.
Have heard why it will go more left, I still don't buy it. OR I buy eye itself is but weather is pushed more to right because of wind flow out ahead of front that is pushing weather being blown of to NNE out ahead of storm moving NNW.
A lot to say and this storm takes on worst case scenarios..
2 storms and now the main road US1 is closed down due to an accident. Not JUST an accident...an overturned tractor trailer with what seems to be a chemical spill. There are 3 ambulences on the scene. Channel 7 out of Miami doing great job with coverage of storm as well as close up of chemicals pouring out of tractor trailer and 3 amublences..that is a long term shut down leaving only small but beautiful card sound road on north end of Key Largo as the only road out.
Seems to me except for sparing Jamaica a direct hit everything has gone wrong that could go wrong right now.
Bad data in is bad data out and everything is very fluid. One mistake in model forecasting can create a bad problem down the road.
So... seems to me we are in late 3rd quarter of this Florida part of the game (before flooding moves up the coast) so... waiting to see what happens now as we switch sides of the field and how that affects the quarterbacks throwing game not to mention the kicker. Just which way is the wind blowing and hope there at no funky swirls in this particular stadium (shades of old shea stadium) so...
until its half way into cuba and we see how it takes that crossing and where...all bets off
Think is doing a kick ass job.. just there is variance in that cone and there is variance built in for a reason. And the data they are going over is already old data and its a very fluid situation. Going to see how nicely that gulfstream jet works it looks like and..
as with Irene ..more concerned with where the weather goes and not the exact pinpointed eye..
as said on tv..this weather set up is more like october than august and well... track looks more like august storm tho we rarely have august storms hitting florida from the south..happens but not rarely especially in early August
so so so much to think on
you are all doing a great job, love reading along
sorry if I am a bit out of it on IM with friends.. situation here is very (smiling) fluid.. got to go do errands, will be on later
thanks
bobbi
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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Going to be monitoring this site today but probably not posting too much...already note much spec. about the "changes in the track and prediction os a big shift to the left"...don't bet the farm...yesterday I gave in to what the guys are saying and they have been within a pretty well defined envelope all along on both these systems and proved to be correct so far...the envelope for error in the short term is now rapidly diminishing...and the sattelite data clearly shows how that "river of air" which these things flow through is funneling over the Florida peninsula...doesn't take a computer to see that will impact Florida gulf coast...big changes now are deflection of 30-40 miles either side of the current line, but because of the oblique angle of approach and the general NNW slant of the Florida coast line.. that could only spell more trouble for folks on the right side of the path...lets face it what is better a direct hit where one passes through a 10-15 mile wide eyewall in a matter of minutes or being in the eye wall for an hour as the storm center grazes past you area about 20 miles to your west??? and what about the constant thrust of water now estimated to be 8-10 feet above normal levels during the progress of the storm past you only a few mils off shore. The Florida coasts worst night mare in my opinion is a CAT 2 or 3 that grazes along the coast just off shore and pounds the coastal area with hurricane force winds for hours and all that water...
As for me, I'm deferring to on this one...so far it has all come to pass as they predictied unfortunately...
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doug
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Way to go! If that's not a halftime pep talk, you are in the wrong game!
For those who have just joined in. The great folks at the NWS have turned on the Rapid Scan Mode on the satellite. This means you can get more frequent updates. Provided the servers at nasa and other places don't bog down!
At 1200Z is was able to get 8 minute updates.
Edited by danielw (Thu Aug 12 2004 09:09 AM)
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Steve hirschb.
Unregistered
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Mike, just curious. What is your think about that "decent" chance of a slight shift to the right? The slight east shift of the 6Z ? Or the Irene experience; or just the gut or whisper in the ear??? 
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jth
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 275
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We're talking about what the said. Not speculating on our own. They may or may not shift the track west. We shall see.
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Londovir
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 112
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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I'm not sure if these model runs are the ones they're talking about, but most of the runs on the map seem to have been generated at 8am, so I'm wondering if the models are now going back eastward. (The comments came in the 5am discussion, so if these model runs are truly at 8am, they weren't the ones was looking at....)
In fact, looking at my old copy of the spaghetti map from Hurricane Alley from 00Z, it looks like BAM models came back to the right now. <sigh> Long day....
Multimodel Plot
Too bad that our local channel here, WTVT-13 in Tampa, is still using the Hurricane Alley pictures from 00Z, which are now outdated. I appluad the fact that they are routinely showing the various models to the public (I've never seen that before in my 13 years here in Tampa area), but the guys need to show some newer models....
Londovir
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Quote:
Mike, just curious. What is your think about that "decent" chance of a slight shift to the right? The slight east shift of the 6Z ? Or the Irene experience; or just the gut or whisper in the ear???
Basically it means I'm not sold on the west drift yet, and there was enough doubt among myself and a few others that I felt it was a good idea to mention. Londovir's post is a good example.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Ok, this whole thing of going more left is great and all, but I am going with the on the probabilities here. I mean they have been right on this season so far. with a few minor exeptions. Bonnie's forcast has for the most part been right where they said two days ago, so why question them now?
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doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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For what ever it is worth...I see a distinct possibility that IF follows what seems to be the path of least resistance it will turn NE below Tampa and cross at the Charlotte and Lee county borders or around Charlotte Harbor, so i personally favor a more east solution here...We'll just have to see.
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doug
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jth
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 275
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Again, we are not questioning the . They are the ones that mentioned a possible left shift in the track.
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