Rabbit
Weather Master
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Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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to avoid confusion, i'm letting everyone know that the password for "BugsBunny" is not being recognized, and the e-mail for that one is currently not working, so i am using the "rabbit" login for now.
looks like it might be starting to move almost due north already, and may already be a major hurricane...
ir loop
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Robert
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 364
Loc: Southeast, FL
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Evryone is complacent it hase not happen in 40 years, people dont think it will happen so thier excpecting it not to happen pretty simple i think. I would bet a lot that if charlie comes in as a moderate to strong cat 3 it will be a costly hurricane just becuse of lack of preperation.
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Bruce
Weather Guru
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Posts: 139
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
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Guppiegrouper, Just wait until about 3:00 PM Friday. You wont be saying that!!
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joepub1
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
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As pulls along side the Isle of Youth and prepares for a quick but powerful run across W Cuba, his pressure has dropped to 976 mb. 21.7N 82.3W 105mph winds.
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Londovir
Weather Guru
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Posts: 112
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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The plot has moved over a bit to the left from where it was earlier. They now show it paralleling the coast and going into Florida up in the Big Bend area. Course, that's a run from 2pm, and much, much time has passed, but it's another view of the storm to consider.
NRL Track - 2pm
Londovir
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BillD
User
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Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
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Robert,
Yes, the site is not being kept up to date. They still have the strike probabilities graphic from 8:00 AM, and the forecast track from 11:00 AM.. I am beginning to think they are doing it on purpose so that the site doesn't get overloaded. There are other sources of the advisory (like this site).
Bill
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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I think they may be having issues with their server cluster and replicating to all of the servers. I did hit the 5:00PM on their site once; but then it went back to the other. A sign of an overloaded server farm.
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AmateurJohn
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 27
Loc: Highlands County, FL
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New poster here, but a long-time lurker. Over the years I have enjoyed the eye-witness messages posted by members living through a hurricane. Now I'm in a position to contribute. Although I don't live on the coast, we here in Central Florida are expecting significant activity from . I am planning to post my visual observations Friday throughout the day -- or at least as long as I have power. I don't have any weather equipment other than my eyes, so don't expect anything sophisticated. I'll do my best to answer any questions.
Right now it's a beautiful evening. Virtually calm and partly cloudy with the sun setting behind the trees outside my office window. Looks like we'll be treated to a beautiful sunset. Tomorrow night will be a whole 'nother story.
We're watching the Tampa TV stations on the Dish Network. Several counties in the metro Tampa area are ordering evacuations. The Tampa bridges have suspended tolls, but the traffic is very heavy leaving the coastal areas. I found it interesting that EOC officials are urging evacuees to consider storm shelters as an option of last resort. They'd prefer folks to stay with relatives or friends in a nonevacuation area.
We're in Lake Placid - 27.3N 81.3W
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Floridacane
Weather Guru
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Posts: 110
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
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This is a really good picture from a realitime terra satellite site.
Here's the link... they have pictures of and lots of others too.
http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/gallery/
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What's brewin' everyone?
Lori
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Rabbit
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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likely a cat 3 by 11pm
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Quote:
The plot has moved over a bit to the left from where it was earlier. They now show it paralleling the coast and going into Florida up in the Big Bend area. Course, that's a run from 2pm, and much, much time has passed, but it's another view of the storm to consider.
NRL Track - 2pm
Londovir
Boy, that would be a devistating track for Tampa. I mean horrible.
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WeatherNLU
Meteorologist
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Posts: 212
Loc: New Orleans, LA
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Sorry, that post is me, not an anon. At another persons house and forgot to login.
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I survived Hurricane Katrina, but nothing I owned did!
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BillD
User
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Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
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I don't remember the exact figure, but the actual possible shelter headcount is something less than 5% of the people that would have to evacuate Miami-Dade County in a simliar situation. It is likely most (including myself) would not evacuate because there is no place to go close by and the roads can't handle the traffic.
Bill
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joepub1
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
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I wouldn't think the website would not update on purpose. That would be a good reason to lock up a few government employees, don't you think? There a lot of weather related web sites having fits today, but the this evening has issues on theirs they need to deal with. I never did try their wap site to see if it was still updated or if it went down the tubes also. Glad I was at home today instead of work.
The NWS sites in both Jacksonville and Key West are staying up to date, and both have good local products also. In fact, I didn't know until today that the Keys were building a new NWS office designed to take a Cat 5 and the storm surge. The long-range radar is the big tool to use for tonight, and it's loading up very well at the moment.
On the other hand, the Miami NWS web site is a sorry excuse for a city of that size. I couldn't find much of anything there, and they are using that NRC graphic showing going everywhere from that M city in the N GOM to the Bahama's. Blind leading the.....well I don't like their site.
Cuba still have issues with overflights by the hurricane hunters, or have they mellowed out a bit? Seems like they could use the help, we could use theirs for sure. Co-op is the best way to go.
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cyclone_head
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 74
Loc: Florida
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It seems to be the nature of the beast for the track to change from hour to hour. I understand that tracks change but why aren't there some backup reasons from , and the others. Is it because of uncertainty and that is fine but it sure seems to change often.
Any input?
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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I doubt the Air Force Reserve plans will be allowed to fly over Cuba. They have been allow the Gulfstream in the past.
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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Backup reason in what way? BTW, all of the government sites use forecast path. The 's track is the same path.
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andy1tom
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
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when looking at the cord history i don't see it turning north yet. this doesn't agree with what everyone on t v is saying should happen at this "time" because it is late with this turn will that affect the track?? have a bad feeling about this.done dodged one bullet this weekend
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DroopGB31
Weather Guru
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Posts: 122
Loc: Pensacola
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Hey Guys, This is getting pretty crazy. Tomorrow is going to be quite a day. What time do you think landfall will occur? Im hoping it will be later in the afternoon, evening because I wont be near a computer till then. And this is something I dont want to miss. So what time do you all see this makin landfall? Everyone in the Tampa area, and the whole coast for that matter stay safe.
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cyclone_head
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 74
Loc: Florida
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Back-up as in the 8pm discussion which I just read. Thanks anyways.
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