jth
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 275
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My question is do the models that we see reflect the data from the Gulfstream that they mention could cause a shift left?
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FlaRebel
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 59
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
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Here are the latest runs as of 12Z. Draw your own conclusions. The GDFL model has him coming on shore directly on Apalachee Bay with 132 MPH winds. 
http://files.hurricanealley.net/storms/03LMDL04.html
http://files.hurricanealley.net/storms/03LMDL03.html
http://files.hurricanealley.net/storms/03LMDL02.html
http://files.hurricanealley.net/storms/03LMDL01.html
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jth
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 275
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Thank you. That not much of a left shift. I can't beleive they even referred to it that much. The way they talked, I thought they meant a shift back to the central gulf.
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Londovir
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 112
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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TV Channel just showed the same tired, old 00Z model tracks from Hurricane Alley. I feel like tongue-in-cheek emailing them to let them know they should hit F5-Refresh on their computers to update those maps now that the 12Z models are up. ;-)
Seriously, though, those models are definitely seeing something in the atmosphere that makes them want to go left, but it's still very fickle. The worst part is the best time we'll know where it's going is once it finished passing over Cuba, and by then it'll be far too little, too late for anyone waiting to make preparations.
IE, moral of the story: get your gear and stuff done now, and worry about overdoinging it later....
Londovir
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doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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these track changes now are mostly for purposes of detrerminig evacuation plans.. at the cost of $1million per mile that is really important they want to be as exact as possible. We are now well within the margin of error the models through out 24-48 hours ago, and land fall is now less that 40 hours away somewhere, so the margin in side that window is not very big.
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doug
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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I agree that Florida residents must prepare but I will wait until Charlie crosses Cuba before deciding what to do as I live in Saint Lucie County, East central Florida (Treasure Coast). It appears we here are in the clear but expect haevy rain and winds of 30~40 MPH tomorrow; Emergency Management will not be enacted under that scenario.
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________2024 Forecast: 28/14/8________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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This may help define the different plumes of moisture in the GOM.
http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/satrad.regional.html
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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URNT12 KNHC 121334
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 12/1333Z
B. 19 DEG 33 MIN N
80 DEG 59 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2953 M
D. 55 KT
E. 225 DEG 006 NM
F. 320 DEG 65 KT
G. 225 DEG 006 NM
H. 983 MB
I. 9 C/ 3074 M
J. 17 C/ 3080 M
K. 8 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C19
N. 12345/7
O. .1/3 NM
P. AF966 0603A OB 12
MAX FL WIND 83 KT E QUAD 1151Z.
*Please refer to Official advisories for positions and wind speeds.*
Edited by danielw (Thu Aug 12 2004 10:09 AM)
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Steve hirschb.
Unregistered
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Charley is definitely intensifying. Starting to look great on visibles. Those models are showing a significant left shift, but I don't buy it yet. Those are generally the cheesey models, including the standard tropical suite. Water vapor loop still shows the long wave trough moving into the NW GOM.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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they arnt showing no left shift,,they are showing a east shift, where do you see the west shift?
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Hurric
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 116
Loc: Port St. Lucie, Fl
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A few thoughts to share on tracks and shifts. As moves closer to impacting the Florida coast even small shifts in track become more and more critical in areas most likely to be affected.
With the angle of the Florida west coast a relatively small shift will bring it inland much further north along the coast or much further south. A shift left/west is more dangerous for areas up (north) the florida coast, a small shift right/east and system goes more across less populated areas in southWest area of florida with less surge impact. tiny shifts of 50 miles become huge.
At this point I think most everyone will agree this is a peninsula Florida storm. I have narrowed my thinking on landfall to somewhere from Key Largo to Cedar Key but see no good reason to not go with .
Thanks Hurric
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joepub1
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
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Why not give it a few minutes and let the give us their take on . The changes I've seen are very minor, and I'm looking at it from the point where he'll exit Florida north. It really hasn't changed much at all, it's the angle of the coast that's making it hard to determine where he will hit. Nobody is saying NO, Mobile, or Miami; it's still in the Tampa area,
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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sun
Posts: 366
Loc: USA
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That was the figure I was looking for. I said earlier that the is going to be careful with warnings. And EM carful with evacuations. Because it cost about $1 million per mile or higher in cities.
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Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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True, they do cost. However, it is damned if you and damned even more if you don't and fail. EM has the worst job. They have to play it safe. If there is a chance of a high Cat2 low Cat 3 near the Tampa area [Lets not forget that the forecast actually has a range either side of the line that is within its designated range], I think EM will have to evacuate, even if they do think that it will go in further south. A simple wobble could be a tragic disaster. EM will be roasted for evacuating if the storm goes to Ft Meyers instead; but they have no other good choice.
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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sun
Posts: 366
Loc: USA
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Good Point. EM just has a hard job. Now if this thing goes towards Tampa what will they do.
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andy1tom
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
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notice the times these were ran. some are off of yesterdays info. models
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Hurricane Forecast/Advisory Number 13
Statement as of 15:00Z on August 12, 2004
a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Florida Keys from the
Dry Tortugas to the Seven Mile bridge...and for the southwest
Florida coast from East Cape Sable to Bonita Beach. The warning
will likely be extended northward later today or tonight. A
Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
At 11 am EDT...1500z...the Hurricane Watch has been extended
northward along the Florida west coast to the Suwannee river. The
Hurricane Watch is now in effect from north of Bonita Beach to the
Suwannee river. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions
are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Florida Keys from
the Seven Mile bridge to Ocean Reef...and along the South Florida
Mainland from Ocean Reef to East Cape Sable...including all of
Florida Bay. A tropical storm watch may be required for portions of
the Florida east coast later today.
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Cayman Islands.
At 11 am EDT...1500z...the government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane
Warning for the following provinces of western Cuba...Pinar del Rio
...La Habana...Ciudad de la Habana...Matanzas...and the Isle of
Youth.
At 11 am EDT...1500z...the government of Jamaica has discontinued
all warnings for Jamaica.
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
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Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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Interesting in the latest , it shifts back to Ft Meyers area and slows with the storm only being east of Tampa, around Lakeland, at 8:00 PM tomorrow night. Will be interesting to see what happens in just a bit in the next forecast.
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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc:
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Absolutely agree with the Evac plans in the Bay area.
You have to consider the bridges and how long it takes to move people from the beach areas to inland locations.
Lets face it money is a factor but lives are more so.
so many folks are naive about the danger and power of a hurricane.
Waiting for the update from .
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andy1tom
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
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that model was run at 2 am. so it is kinda for guidance but not a science.. the thing to remember about vs. bonnie is is big.. bonnie is 90 miles from here and we have no wind.. with that won't be the case.
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