Colleen A.
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I think that the forecast track is pretty well indicated and has been the same since Tuesday night. It has shifted a little to the west, a little to the east, back and forth again but there has been NO MAJOR CHANGES in the track.
I do not believe that Pinellas County would order the largest evacuation in their history if the was not sure of this track. 380,000 people is a LOT of people to move by 2pm tomorrow. Not to mention other counties that will start evacuating later.
Pinellas County just approved a local state of emergency + a mandatory evacuation of levels A,B and C plus ALL people living in mobile homes beginning at 6pm.
MANATEE COUNTY has just issued a mandatory evacuation of Zones A, B and all mobile homes effective immediately and they will be shutting off the water tomorrow morning and closing the bridges at midnight tonight. I expect that most highways will become one-way ---north and east later today.
I think this all tells us where the heck this storm is going.
School closings just listed:
Polk
Hernando
Hillborough
Manatee
Sarasota
Pinellas
Pasco
I am watching a Pinellas County Commissioner meeting. Gary Vickers (Director ot PC EMA) is saying that Tampa Bay is looking at a 14' storm surge at the time of impact.
I think I am beginning to see an eye with .
This is not going to be a North Gulf of Mexico Storm. It's going to be a West Central/Southwest Florida storm, and I think we know by now that the has a pretty solid track record with tracks.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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LI Phil
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This should really get everyone's attention.
You can see where is, and how he's going to be steered once he clears Cuba
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-wv-loop.html
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
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Loc: USA
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Charley Track Look at 's forcast track and position strength at 8 pm Fri. (move your cursor over the red dot and x on the west coast of florida)
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rickonboat
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Good post Coleen, but perhaps will NOT do as indicated, and will in fact veer a little more west. Then the implications are even more ominous. Throw thousands of people on the highways...and then if the hurricane shifts...then what?...recall them...or throw more out there..
It's an interesting twist, IF the hurricane stalls, or if it does NOT behave as forecast.
Not saying either way...just that at this point, NOTHING is written in stone....
The authorities are covering their bases and you know what!
What we do has NOTHING to do with what does...we are only observers making intelligent and educated guesses....
just throwing that out there for something to think about.
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Colleen A.
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Yes, there is an eye with . 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Rick,
Watch the attacks. Got my carving knife handy.
You guys have been great SO FAR... 
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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In addition, Orange, Osceola, Seminole, and Brevard Counties have closed schools, trash pickup,...
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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Colleen A.
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Loc: Florida
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Oh jeez....not good for Tampa.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
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Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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Hello LI Phill:
What does the steering winds indicate to you, going stright up the peninsula?
What would the path become if Charlie slows down after passing over Cuba?
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________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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rickonboat
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Charley is starting to tighten up and look like a real buzz-saw. Can any of the experts relate to the size of ?....He seems like about the size of Andrew, though I have nothing handy to compare that...just seems like the storm is tightening up...and yes..the heading appears NNW..though it could be a wobble.
Still think it will slide west of Tampa...even think it will change it's direction somewhat because of hitting Cuba...maybe kick this way or that...who knows...
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Floridacane
Weather Guru
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Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
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I found a beautiful picture of , before he was a Hurricane. Figured everyone might like to see it. I was hoping they would have an updated one of the Hurricane but they don't as of yet.
http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/gallery/?2004224-0811/Charley.A2004224.1815.1km.jpg
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What's brewin' everyone?
Lori
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
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Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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I swear that this image shows Charlie going due North. 
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________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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LI Phil
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What I think it means depends upon forward speed. If slows significantly, I think it runs the risk of not being picked up by the trof, and that could mean a more northerly (north of Tampa) hit. Right now I'm not going to guess at anything, but I think the NHC forecast track is pretty spot on for now...for now.
If he slows and explodes into a CAT III or higher monster? Everyone from the Keys to Pensacola should be watching this one closely.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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rickonboat
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Phil...you FORGOT MOBILE>...we need to monitor too...
Good point, and I hadn't thought about the fact Cuba could slow down... he misses the trough...and meanders...waiting for something else to push him who knows where...
These things are rather exciting, aren't they?
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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
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Loc: USA
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What are the chances of him slowing? Going over cuba could do that . But these storms are unpredictible.
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richg
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: Satellite Beach FL
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Quote:
In addition, Orange, Osceola, Seminole, and Brevard Counties have closed schools, trash pickup,...
Where did you hear/see Brevard closings? I'm in Satellite Bch and haven't heard anything.
Thanks
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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What other than Cuba could slow down?
I dont think Cuba is wide enough to do much to it.
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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
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Loc: USA
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Cuba may not be wide but it stil is an infraction on land.
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Colleen A.
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Loc: Florida
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Points well taken, RiconBoat. However, this storm has done everything the has said it would do.
Also, I was reporting based on what Florida officials are telling the public, I wasn't "wishcasting".
We're less than 2 days away from landfall. I do not see any major changes in the track.
And I'm not going to go back and forth with you on this over and over again. I am more concerned with the "this is the situation" than the "what ifs" at this point.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Gonna be away from the computer for a while...
Heed the warnings and keep the posts on topic (which shouldn't be hard to do...)
Check back later
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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