hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sun
Posts: 366
Loc: USA
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she said higher winds were reported and it could be upgraded then it was a commercial.
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palmetto
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 23
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
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000
WTNT61 KNHC 131716
TCUAT
BULLETIN
HURRICANE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
115 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004
AT 115 PM EDT...1715Z...A U.S. AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT MEASURED 10000 FT FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 162 MPH AT A
DISTANCE OF 8 MILES FROM THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE. THIS GIVES
AN ESTIMATED SURFACE WIND OF 145 MPH...CATEGORY FOUR ON THE SAFFIR
SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. A SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.
LAWRENCE
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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sun
Posts: 366
Loc: USA
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there you go its offical. thats all folks 
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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc:
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Charley is now a Cat 4 with winds of 140 mph.....
developing story,,,,out of Ch 8news in Tampa
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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sun
Posts: 366
Loc: USA
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they cut power in St Pete at 1:00 pm
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BabyCat
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 150
Loc: New Orleans, La.
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I'm listening to WatchNet and I just heard that too.
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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A co-worker just mentioned she has family up visiting from Tampa...an older man and his adult son. That's the good news. The bad news, the man's wife and developmentally disabled daughter are still there. They haven't boarded up or otherwise taken any precautions to protect life and limb. As of about an hour ago, they weren't preparing to leave for a shelter. I just advised my co-worker to get on the phone and tell them to get the hell out of there asap. Hopefully they will heed the warnings...god this is scary.
--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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SirCane
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 249
Loc: Pensacola, FL
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It's also down to 954mb! That's a 10mb drop!
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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sun
Posts: 366
Loc: USA
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does anyone have the updated advisory?
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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We had a local Tampa Bay announcement from emergency management to say to ignore the rumors of the variable landfalls predictions and to believe that the Bay area will take a direct landfall. This translates to a Catagory 4 storm coming in on a dense population of people. IT does not matter where the shelters are. They are showing the windfields in the bands and so far there are isolated pockets of 70 -100 mph winds. The south of Tampa Bay area is in for extreme storm surge.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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They have to cover their ass, but it's NOT going to make a direct landfall in Tampa. Cat IV is amazing. Andrew, if I'm not mistaken, is the last Cat IV (now a V) to make US landfall. This reminds me of 2002 when Lili was a Cat 1 in the Gulf. We decided to ride it out. Right before my eyes that sucker upgraded to a Cat IV in a matter of a few hours and I started second guessing our decision (probably posts about that somewhere in the archives of this site). Then, luckily, it crossed some of the cooler churned up waters near where Isidore had been 10 days prior and weakened to Cat 1 at landfall. It was a fun yet nasty day in the Big Easy but you gotta know I was getting a wee bit apprehensive there for a bit as I'm sure many on the Islands in and around the 10,000 Islands are now. Wow. Cat IV. Hopefully it will mesh with some colder waters when nearer to the coast and come in as a Cat 2 or Cat 3. Even still, y'all in Central Florida will be talking about this one for decades to come. That's the way these disasters work. Depending on how good/bad you get it, it will become the replacement storm that all future storms of the next 30-40 years will be judged. History. What else can be said?
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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JimAnderson
Registered User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 9
Loc: Fort Monroe Virginia
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Cat IV WOW!
Any estimate on time / tides for landfall. I have family in N. Ft Myers. They have moved to their Mobile Home Park's new shelter that was supposedly built in the last year to "hurricane proof specs". But with a Cat IV one never knows.
Jim
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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>>> Thank you Steve.
I know you mean well, but perhaps a better choice of words could be applied to those facing hell.
--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
Edited by LI Phil (Fri Aug 13 2004 02:08 PM)
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alan
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 95
Loc: Apopka, FL
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My friend in Pine Island, just northeast of Sanibel, has had all the windows blown out on his house and the water is up to the base of the house.
He said it was relatively calm and then all of a sudden it just exploded on him.
Again, I ask if there are any tips for him to survive.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Please tell your friend on Pine Island to get to the highest point he could get to, somewhere on the center of the Island. We just saw live TV showing the bridge open - there is a chance that the bridge is still open. Rick Santori of the WC was standing in front of thr bridge and vehicles were coming over...so maybe some hope. But if not...he HAS TO find a HIGH area with as much protection as possible!!!
We were just at Pine Island on vacation, and it is narrow and the water will cover it totally - wish I could remember what buildings were there...All I remember seeing there was TREES! He might try "911" and see if anyone can help him, too - maybe Coast Guard help.
Prayers going up for your friend!
Roberta Holmes
Sebastian, FL
We were
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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sun
Posts: 366
Loc: USA
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Tornado heading right for orlando. People there need to watch out. Has anyone seen the new/special advisory?
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Yeah, there's a lot more water coming in. Tell him to grab the nearest flotation device he can find just to be safe. A ski vest works best, but if you have to blow up garbage bags, DO IT. Nothing guarntees safety, but I'd rather be floating around a giant surge than swept away trying to swim through it.
Best of luck to your boy.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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James88
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Here's the dicusiion from the advisory:-
** WTNT43 KNHC 131813 ***
TCDAT3
HURRICANE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004
RECENT AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE REPORTS ALONG WITH RADAR AND
SATELLITE DATA SHOW THAT WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 125 KT. THE TRACK
HAS ALSO SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
FORECAST WHICH SHIFTS THE GREATEST RISK TO THE AREA OF CHARLOTTE
HARBOR FLORIDA. THESE CHANGES REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF THIS SPECIAL
ADVISORY.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 13/1800Z 26.0N 82.4W 125 KT
12HR VT 14/0000Z 27.5N 81.8W 100 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 14/1200Z 31.5N 80.0W 65 KT...OVER WATER
36HR VT 15/0000Z 36.0N 77.5W 50 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 15/1200Z 40.5N 74.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 16/1200Z 46.5N 68.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 17/1200Z...ABSORBED BY SYSTEM
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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wftv just siad 150mph now and 25 foot storm surge..any verification??? I am in and out bring plants in...
troy
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Just had bad bad storm through Kissimmee on lake toho..
I'LL LEAVE THIS UP BUT PLEASE DO NOT POST ANONYMOUSLY
Edited by LI Phil (Fri Aug 13 2004 02:34 PM)
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