andy1tom
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
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they will stick to their forecast unless something makes it change. the models are just one thing used in making the forecast. when i say something makes it change not just talking about a zig or zag but a trend of movement.. took me forever to understand that and i still don't agree with some of their forecast but overall they are pretty right
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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 366
Loc: USA
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They have a flood watch up for the Mid-Atlantic and NE because of Bonnie and .
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ShaggyDude
Weather Guru
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Posts: 112
Loc: Cocoa Beach, Florida
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For those of you trying to track the direction of , try this site on a long animation loop. Also, can anyone post the site of the cuban radar? Thanks
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastnheir.html
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Last poster,
Your governor just resigned in discrase, but that's not what's important now. Yeah, I live in LI (on LI) and I'll be getting Bonnie and 's remnants, and I consider myself lucky.
There are folks who are about to get hit by two tropical systems in less than 24 hours...HISTORY...so that's the main story for now.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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BillD
User
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Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
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This is a direct link to the animated gif of the cienfuego radar.
cienfuego radar
Bill
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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 366
Loc: USA
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Thanks i could only get the main page.
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cyclone_head
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 74
Loc: Florida
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Hey BillD...
Thanks for the clarification...and ...never stop posting...
smiles...
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Londovir
Weather Guru
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Posts: 112
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Apologize if this was mentioned already -- 8:55pm recon fix found 97kt winds, so it's a little stronger than last recon, but the eyewall is still ragged and elongated. The pressure is still low around 976, but interesting that the temperatures are a little higher than they were earlier....
This sucker still wants to ride to the right of the model runs a bit. Stubborn little bugger...
Londovir
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joepub1
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
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More info to know: Havana is at 23.13N, 82.38W if you want to use it as a yard stick as to where Chuckie is.I think the offical track was to take it closer toward a city called Mariel, a little west of Havana. Sorry for using Havana as a yardstick, I'm sure for the most part they'll be OK. 
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ShaggyDude
Weather Guru
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Posts: 112
Loc: Cocoa Beach, Florida
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Thank You, Bill
Greatly Appreciated
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PFSThunder
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 38
Loc: Charleston, SC
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I was about to join the "Charley has started the move North" crowd but it seems by looking at the Key West radar, that the storm is still in a NNW move. The feeder bands are still trending NW and the eye is showing the same movement. Other opinions are welcome.
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Go Boilermakers
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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 366
Loc: USA
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The pressure will fall a the winds will follow.
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ChrisT
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 12
Loc: Coral Gables/Sanibel Island
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Last recon a little before 9PM reported 976mb and peak flight level wind of 97kts. Eye wall was still circular but a little ragged - open on the NW-NNE side. Good convection SW-E eyewall. Radar presentation looks impressive.
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WeatherNLU
Meteorologist
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Posts: 212
Loc: New Orleans, LA
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I think we are all right. It's not due North yet, but it is trending that way. There is still some westerly motion in the system, but not much at this point.
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I survived Hurricane Katrina, but nothing I owned did!
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ShaggyDude
Weather Guru
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Posts: 112
Loc: Cocoa Beach, Florida
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Yeah, I'm all for looking at any devations from a northern track. I do see slight corrections to NNW every once and a while, but I still see a solid northerly component, and for some reason, it's seems there to stay. Counterpoint?
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Londovir
Weather Guru
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Posts: 112
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Nickd:
I haven't been through many evacs, but I can tell you to be very careful evac'ing from Clearwater beach as late as 6am. If the winds get bad and choppy weather, they're going to start shutting down the Courtney Cambell, Howard Franklin, etc. You shouldn't have anything to worry about leaving at 6am - except! - keep in mind they are advising Hillsborough to begin its evac around 6am also, so you could get stuck in malfunction junction if you plan on heading past Tampa eastward.
Keep in mind there were 2-3 hour delays today/tonight on all 3 main bridges out of Pinellas....if keeps on a path this way, it's only gonna get worse as time goes on....
Good luck!
Londovir
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Someone pointed this out last september during "isabel" that with the possible future implications of such a storm, perhaps we shouldn't be referring to this storm as anything but ISABEL. Same goes for this one, this storm is not " not chuck, chuckie, chas, etc, but 04 .
Because, until all is said and done, this just might be one for the record books. Not saying this is '69 camille and we would have referred to her as "cammy", but you do get the drift.
Bonnie is gone, but is here...for now.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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WeatherNLU
Meteorologist
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Posts: 212
Loc: New Orleans, LA
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8PM EDT was 21.7N 82.3 W
I have it at 9:45PM EDT at 22.1N 82.4W
Just about due north.
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I survived Hurricane Katrina, but nothing I owned did!
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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 366
Loc: USA
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It is moving north with the occasional westward jog.
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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 337
Loc:
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Charley is apparently moving North now.
Can someone tell me why I should not beileve
that it will turn toward the NNE before reaching the Tampa area and then head inland through the Orlando area?
Does anyone see a due North course for 360 miles to Tampa before drifting East a bit?
Of course could be just be going due North to get past Cuba and then wobble a bit West but it looks like a Northerly trend has been set.....yes?
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