danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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WTNT45 KNHC 150856
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN AUG 15 2004
WHILE THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS ELONGATED
SLIGHTLY EAST-WEST...THE AMOUNT AND QUALITY OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR
THE CENTER HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY THIS MORNING. THE
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM AND SAB IS A CONSENSUS
T3.0...OR 45 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ONLY INCREASED TO 40 KT
BASED ON THE LACK OF CONSISTENT BANDING FEATURES. AIR FORCE RECON
WILL BE INVESTIGATING EARL LATER THIS MORNING.....
THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY EVENLY SPLIT BETWEEN TAKING EARL
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE YUCATAN OR NORTHWEST AND NORTHWARD INTO
THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OR EVEN NEAR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. ALL OF
THE MODELS AGREE ON ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY DAY 5...CAUSING THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO RETREAT EASTWARD TO FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF. THIS MAY
RESULT IN EARL SLOWING DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY AND TURNING MORE
NORTHWESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE ...
NOGAPS...AND UKMET SOLUTIONS...ONLY MUCH SLOWER THAN THE UKMET.
*edited version. full advisory can be found under "EARL" on the upper left side, above communication heading-edit*
Edited by danielw (Sun Aug 15 2004 05:56 AM)
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES09152004228vB7QSt.jpg
0915Z Sunday; 0515EDT
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
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The pattern so far this season has been for low latitud systems moving from the atlantic into the caribbean and those haved been TD#2=Bonnie,TD#3=Charley and now Earl with the exception Danielle who is going to the fishes.It seems like the azores high has been strong with some fluctuations pushing the systems fast in the atlantic and caribbean and mantaining them low in latitud for a good deal of time.This pattern scares me because yes so far they haved passed well south of Puerto Rico and now Earl will do the same but if a CV system in the future forms more north in latitud then Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands will be in the path so let's see what happens as august 15 has arrived date that starts the CV season but has iniciated with hurricane Danielle a big fish one.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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I don't want to sound alarmist, and this information is based on my intuition along with the opinion of someone who I believe is in the top 5 of hurricane forecasters alive today, and the only one of those who works for the Government.
Residents of the US Gulf Coast, particularily those who live between Houston and Apalachicola, need to watch Earl VERY closely.
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Jason Kelley
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200405_5day.html
Yeah, I know the models will shift left and right over time, as they ALWAYS do with the 5 day forecasts... but at the moment it does not bode well for the GOM ...
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joepub1
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
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I'm going to give my take on Earl and Danielle, and stay out of the fray. Well never mind, it's gone now.
Earl is looking OK this morning, recon finding some good winds on the N side. Center may not be closed, but then I swear was a hurricane and still had an open eyewall at some point, so I don't think it's a big thing. Still young in it's life. He seems to want to stay to the left of 's path that they keep drawing for him, and hankfrankly, if I don't see some north movement pretty soon, I don't think he'll ever get to either the 5 or 11 am (Sun) forecasts. I'm almost ready to let myself start thinking this is a panhandle-west storm at worse (looking at it from where I'm at). I had a thought about eight hours ago that if Danielle made it past 40W as a hurricane she might start to weaken the ridge, allowing a more northern turn, and in fact the in their discussion said that myself and the U.K. Met might be the only two people or models thinking that. The way he's running hard to the west makes it unlikely to happen. He would have to almost stall somewhere to make me think he was FL bound. JB may indeed have his storm.
Danielle is a fish, yet could affect somebody's weather by having an effect on Earl's stearing. Watch what she does.
To think that 3 weeks ago I thought my numbers of 13/8/4 were a bad batch. Now I wonder if I'm going to be too low. And being in Florida I will say that if anybody from any other state would like to wishcast Earl upon themselves, please do. Have at it. We could use a break for the moment.
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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it's still very early with earl. the storm has stayed on the left of guidance.. and recon found a 1011mb pressure.. not very deep. makes the rapid westward movement not at all surprising. until it deepens it may well stay left and south of the forecast track.. which down the road could spell yucatan/central america implications.. though i expect it will find itself sometime during it's trek of the caribbean and gain a poleward component.
yes, earl is a potential bad situation for the august 21st-24th timeframe.. and probably for the central gulf coast. the surface SSTs are a bit lower there due to frontal penetration, but still quite warm and probably only enough to cap intensification (not cause Opal/lili type weakening before landfall).
we've got all week.. but yeah the writing is on the wall.
HF 1541z15august
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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but the whole Gulf (again) needs to watch this one.
And the West GOM in particular. That's all for now...
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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Earl: Looks like convection is firing around the center....probably be a hurricane soon? look at latest visible...
btw, from someone who does remember Andrew in south florida...those pictures look exactly the same...however...we should note that most of those buildings were built before the new 2001 Florida Building Code....many of those buildings were built under older, less stringent standards than the South Florida Building Code...so although the damage might appear as bad as Andrew...it could have been worse if this was an Andrew type hurricane...we will know better once prepares their post-op research. just a thought.
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joepub1
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
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though i expect it will find itself sometime during it's trek of the caribbean and gain a poleward component
You type that, and Earl just put out one of the best visible cloud bursts I've seen from a sat pic. Talk about high and cold, wow. 1515 utc vis. Holy smokes. Came right on top of Grenada, and their winds went WSW with thunderstorms. Wind was ENE, calm, and WSW over their last three obs. Now that makes me wonder if the LLC is further north then we think? Moving kinda quick for that, but who knows this season. The old rules are getting a run for their money, making new ones everyday it seems.
Edited by joepub1 (Sun Aug 15 2004 12:26 PM)
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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danielle is going slowly as the ridge to the north is decaying.. the low level easterlies are pushing subsequent waves close enough to danielle's envelope that they have less chance of developing early. have to watch the next wave as globals favor the one coming off on tuesday.. not developing it quickly like danielle did and tracking it to near the northern islands by next weekend. ridge should be intact in danielle's wake.. i'm sure cycloneye is entertaining thoughts on this one.
just read the 11am on earl.. west at 28mph. regardless of how good it looks.. if this one doesn't apply some brakes it's going to check it's own development and stay left. of course if it's a hurricane by tuesday afternoon it'll end up in the gulf.
HF 1611z15august
Edited by HanKFranK (Sun Aug 15 2004 12:15 PM)
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BillD
User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
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I just noticed that Earl is follwing the same track as TD3/Charley did, Earl's forecasted track follows 's almost exactly for the next two days.
From the 11 AM advisory on Earl:
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 11.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 62.0 WEST OR ABOUT 25
MILES... 40 KM...SOUTHWEST OF GRENADA.
EARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 28 MPH ...44 KM/HR...AND A
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
From the 5 PM Aug 9 2004 advisory on TD3 (Charley):
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.0 WEST OR ABOUT
30 MILES...45 KM...SOUTHWEST OF GRENADA.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 22 MPH
...35 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
Also Earl is really moving, 28 mph. For now it is just watch and wait.
Bill
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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those are some interesting obs. makes me wonder if the center is jumping around. uncertainty with the system.. it's racing and poorly organized, but showing signs of the ability to make a solid intensity jump. trend is for organization, but that speed is going to undo a lot of work the center is doing to get organized. i was betting right of guidance on the challenge the other night (ed posted one late on earl.. open until midnight tonight).. still a chance i'll land something. as far as westward progression.. it keeps speeding up.. gonna bust there.
HF 1620z15august
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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Everyone almost should get a point for predicting a turn to the n and having no affect on land for Danielle. Earl is really going to be alot tuffer call.
With it was soo easy to predict with a mega trough for this time of year over the central gulf and eastern seaboard. My 5 day forcast ended him up just 25miles south of my sarasota landfall area. Called for a Cat 3 but didnt expect 145 especially that rapid ints during the day. Pretty close though.
Wont give a 5 day forcast yet on Earl cause outside of the Yucitan, I dont think U.S. landfall will happen in 5 days.
Earl cant go much faster as it is now. He should start to slow some once it gets near Jamaica Tuesday morning and become a hurricane by then or maybe sooner. He will not become a hurricane within the next24 hours unless recon finds a down burst of wind of that speed or higher. Expecting Monday night or Tuesday on this. I do expect him to stay south of Jamaica and head into the Yucitan on Weds evening. By thurs emerge off the NW area of the Yucitan.
A series a short waves coming out of the southern plains and into the nw gulf will I expect slow Earl down to almost a crawl. By late friday into next weekend a movement to the N followed by NNE or NE as he could be picked up and head towards the eastern gulf from Tampa north to New Orleans. Big spread and this isnt my forcast as of now after Weds. Just a guess. Will update this by monday night or Tuesday morning on my 5 day run. Earl should be a strong cat 1 or more by weds night. After weakning over the Yucitan, a steady strengthning faze will begin once he pulls NW of there slowly. Anything after Weds is just speculation.
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1234
Registered User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 7
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I don't like what the models are doing with this storm 
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
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alan
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 95
Loc: Apopka, FL
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Wow. I just took a drive to the office downtown. It was amazing where you hit a line and there started to be a lot more damage. Lots of trees down downtown and lots of signs blown out. A few roofs off, but looks like typical catagory 1 damage.
The very interesting thing is my mother and my best friend experienced a completely different storm just four to five miles to my east, if that much. There, the center passed over them in Maitland and then Altamonte Springs. The wind was blowing hard and then it quit. it turned slightly breezy and very humid. About 20 minutes later, the wind blew hard from the other direction, but that didn't last long.
Here on the east side of Apopka, we had some hard winds for about 20 minutes. There is little damage except for a tree that snapped in half across the street. That tree was almost dead anyway.
My friend who was on Pine Island survived the storm. We have heard from him. Nearly every structure on the island is damaged. Most of his house is gone. He had his first meal since Friday today. A hot dog provided by red cross. Watching the radar, the eye brushed the north end of the island on the way to Charlotte Harbor.
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joepub1
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
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Grenada weather obs. at noon:
Winds ESE at 30 mph, rain, pressure going up.
Winds for the last four hours:
9am ENE 14mph
10am Calm
11am WSW 12mph LLC to the NE?
12:00 ESE 30mph LLC to the NW?
I'm learning on the run this season. Grenada sits at 12N 61.5W.
11 am advisory: 11.9N 62.0W
Edited by joepub1 (Sun Aug 15 2004 01:01 PM)
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52255225
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 166
Loc: Parrish Fl
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yeah glad to hear someone mention pine island. my uncle lives there. his house was the only one on jacaranda that made it he says all trees are gone the canal had all the water sucked right out! my Dad is on 75 south from bradenton going to meet him to bring him a generator food etc. no power there their saying for atleast 3 weeks. total devastation.
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VolusiaMike
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 63
Loc: Ormond Beach, FL
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Just a quick note to update on conditions from Volusia County, Ormond Beach, after Hurricane . Still no power for most of the City, lots of debris everywhere may more than a month before total cleanup.
Michael
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alan
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 95
Loc: Apopka, FL
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Does anyone know where to get a radar loop from Friday?
if you do, post a link. The only place I know of gives the loop from Saturday.
Thanks.
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