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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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DroopGB31
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 122
Loc: Pensacola
Re: No recon [Re: danielw]
      #20366 - Sun Aug 15 2004 09:54 PM

I totally agree with you Rasvar, If Charley would have sat off the coast for about 2 or 3 more hours we probably would have had a Cat 5. Another thing that minimized damage was how fast it strengthened. The surge wasnt as high because it didnt have a long time to really build up a large surge. The damage would have been alot worse also if it had moved a little slower inland, so instead of seeing 2 hours of bad weather, u'd see 3, 4 maybe 5. I would like to say they got lucky, but really they didnt at all. I guess you could say, things could have been worse.

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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: No recon [Re: DroopGB31]
      #20367 - Sun Aug 15 2004 10:00 PM

Well i can tell you this for sure, anyone caught in Charleys eye wall DIDN'T FEEL VERY LUCKY... it was bad enough as it was, but you are right, as bad as it was, it could have actually been much worse... and that's unbelieveable to me....

goes to show you, you just never know what these things might end up doing....


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: No recon [Re: danielw]
      #20368 - Sun Aug 15 2004 10:02 PM

Is anyone else able to get satellite shots newer than 0045Z ?

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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: No recon [Re: danielw]
      #20369 - Sun Aug 15 2004 10:08 PM

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrir.html

01:15 UTC time from GOES
not sure how that equates to Z time

Edited by Frank P (Sun Aug 15 2004 10:10 PM)


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Looking rather ragged tonight does Earl [Re: danielw]
      #20370 - Sun Aug 15 2004 10:14 PM

IR loop not to impressive as he is just able to hang on to a small blob of convection pretty close to the center of circulation, or just north of it... watching the IR loop, the blob of convection appears to be moving off to the WNW at about 290 degrees as best as I can tell... so I think he does has a northern component to his motion tonight....

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BillD
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
Re: No recon [Re: Frank P]
      #20371 - Sun Aug 15 2004 10:15 PM

I'm also getting 0115Z, but just now. Z = UTC.

Bill


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: No recon [Re: BillD]
      #20372 - Sun Aug 15 2004 10:16 PM

that's what I thought Bill but I'm to tired to look it up... thanks

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James88
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Re: No recon [Re: Frank P]
      #20374 - Mon Aug 16 2004 10:21 AM

Looks like recon are having a hard time finding a LLC in Earl, so there is the possibility that it may be downgraded to a tropical wave at the next advisory. However, since this system would probably have a good chance of regeneration, they may give it the benefit of the doubt, like they did with TD #2 not long ago. We shall see.

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BillD
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
Re: No recon [Re: James88]
      #20375 - Mon Aug 16 2004 10:25 AM

James, was just going to post the same thing. They have yet to find any west wind, didn't find it yesterday morning either. And so far lowest pressure they've found is 1011. I would agree that they will probably downgrade it at 11.

Good to have the board back!

Bill


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James88
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Just a tropical wave [Re: BillD]
      #20376 - Mon Aug 16 2004 10:30 AM

It's official, Earl has been downgraded:-

955
WTNT35 KNHC 161420
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST MON AUG 16 2004

...EARL DEGENERATES INTO AN OPEN TROPICAL WAVE...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE TROPICAL WAVE WAS LOCATED OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE WAVE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 25 MPH...41 KM/HR.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON EARL UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE


$$


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: Just a tropical wave [Re: James88]
      #20377 - Mon Aug 16 2004 10:43 AM

I'd be real surprised if we've heard the last of Earl.. I also found a mid level circulation of the system at 14.8 and 71.1, moving west but fighting some shear , looks very similar to the midlevel rotation that got bonnie back as a developing system.... who knows....

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Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
Re: news coverage [Re: BabyCat]
      #20378 - Mon Aug 16 2004 11:15 AM

Quote:

It seems odd that the press is all over Punto Gorda and not too much out of Port Charlotte.
Any ideas why?


Frankly, they probably can't get there yet, at least not en-mass.

I live in Orlando, the Eye went right over where I was...the savage wind, the calm, the even more savage wind, the whole number. I am at my Technical Institute where I am a teacher trying to catch up with what the world saw from the outside while I and several million Floridians caught in the middle watched from within. While Charley doesn't compare to Camille whiich I also witnessed from close up, here in Orlando on the East Side of town, we caught the winds of 87 sustained and gusting to 105. I live in a trailer park....'bout 1pm on Friday, I stopped believing the TPC and started believing my eyes, experience and 'gut feelings' and decided to pack what I could save and evacuate. Many of my neighbors didn't listen when I told them to do the same....more than a few now are forceced to evacuate their now destroyed homes and mobile homes in my 'Shadow Hills' mobile home park. Those of us who still have a tin box to go back to all sustained damage, mine, mostly was caused by pieces of a couple down a ways that was totaled. We are without power and all that implies including water and sewer. I am glad to have a refrigerator...I am not glad to have to had to throw out hundreds of dollars worth of food...already starting to rot. My friends house in South Orlando where I spent the night, lost a patio cover/roof, a large tree decided to go swimming in his pool and the squirrels now have a direct path to his roof and of course to the pool. Power is down everywhere, traffic lights are maybe 40% back in service, but immediately after the storm, none, I mean literally none, seemed to survive in the wake of the center and dozens of planes at Executive Airport near my mobile home were destroyed or damaged including a DC-3 from WW-2. The cops, individually, have done a fine job, standing out in the major intersections trying to handle thousands of cars that came over here from Tampa when they thought they were going to be the bullseye. No gas is left at many stations and way over 2/3 of the stations I've been by are without power, and the ones that do remind me of the early 1972 gas embargo with lines of cars 50 or more deep lining the streets waiting their turn. More than one car in line is empty with the driver walking with a small gas can...they ran out of gas waiting in line...

So, don't fault the media, I'm sure the Port Charolette and surrounding areas are MUCH worse than here in the Orlando area, and we are 'walking wounded' ourselves....give it a bit of time....

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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SirCane
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 249
Loc: Pensacola, FL
Re: Just a tropical wave [Re: Frank P]
      #20379 - Mon Aug 16 2004 11:21 AM

Quote:

I'd be real surprised if we've heard the last of Earl.. I also found a mid level circulation of the system at 14.8 and 71.1, moving west but fighting some shear , looks very similar to the midlevel rotation that got bonnie back as a developing system.... who knows....





I agree. Earl looks pretty good for a wave this morning! More strong convection than he ever had. Don't think we've seen the last of Earl. If he regenerates-it will be interesting to see where the new center forms!


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Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
Re: Dvorak [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #20380 - Mon Aug 16 2004 11:24 AM

Quote:

This is a hypothetical question. With the path so similar to Charley, is there anything that will prohibit Earl from taking the path that was once predicted for Charley


Nothing that would prevent it, but a ton of things that make it unlikely. Not the least of which is that it likely won't make it here as a storm, but even if it did, the weather to our north and west (cold fronts and such) as well as the strength and orientation of the tropical ridges that existed with Charley will certainly have changed a great deal. I don't see Earl as a significant threat to Tampa or, thank God, to Orlando or the devestated SW coast of Florida. Having said that, it always pays to keep an eye on tropical systems, as you should never forget, nothing, absolutely nothing PREVENTS a repeat, just odds and circumstance make it unlikely.

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Earl's future [Re: Ricreig]
      #20382 - Mon Aug 16 2004 11:40 AM

Agree with Richard. While I wouldn't bet against Earl reintensifying, possibly even to hurricane strength, I would pretty much figure only South Texas to be under the gun, so to speak. Earl is probably going to slam into the Yucatan, then go into the BOC, and that is the point where he may recurve slightly.

One can never say "never," of course, but I think Floridians can breathe a lot easier with Earl.

My thoughts and prayers go out to you Richard, and all the others affected. That was some post earlier. It probably belongs in another forum, but for now it stays right here, for all to see.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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AmateurJohn
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 27
Loc: Highlands County, FL
Our Charley Experience [Re: Ricreig]
      #20385 - Mon Aug 16 2004 11:55 AM

I have been keeping a journal of our experience with Charley. I will copy and paste it here. We are doing fine. Our town made it through the storm a lot better off than did the towns just a bit west of us. I know we were very lucky and we feel very badly for the people who lost everything.

Friday, August 13, 2004:
6:30-8:00pm – height of storm passes through Lake Placid. Looks like we may have had gusts up to hurricane strength with sustained winds probably at least 50-60mph. For quite a while, the rain was practically horizontal. Trees outside our house were swaying and bending, but thankfully not breaking.

6:45pm – we lose electric power

Saturday, August 14, 2004:
9:00am – after making sure the house did not sustain any damage from Charley we leave for Ft. Pierce to find a motel with electricity (and air conditioning) for the night Leaving Lake Placid, highway 70 West is closed west of US 27. This is the road that leads into Arcadia, and I suspect the authorities don't want people who don't live there heading that way. Highway 70 West is backed up from its intersection with US 27 all the way to highway 29, a distance of about 5 miles. Between Lake Placid and Okeechobee there is a constant stream of westbound traffic along highway 70 and there is a huge traffic jam through Okeechobee with westbound traffic barely moving. These are all the people who evacuated from the west coast heading back home.

Sunday, August 15, 2004
1:00pm – returned to Lake Placid. Just outside of Ft. Pierce there was an electric sign advising that highway 70 was closed at US 27 and advising motorists to seek alternate routes. This is over an hour from US 27. Traffic was still extremely heavy in Okeechobee. We were able to take the back roads to US 98 to get us home, avoiding the traffic mess along highway 70.

Most of the Lake Placid area seems to have gotten away with relatively minor damage, compared to other areas of the state that were more in the path of Charley’s eye. A lot of tree branches down, some minor property damage. We saw one awning blown into an orange grove. We saw one house with a tree blown onto its roof.

My wife's daycare Center fared pretty well. One window was blown out and another cracked. Other than that, there were a lot of branches and leaves in the parking lot and playground, but otherwise they came out OK. Since there was no electricity there, we took a lot of food out of the refrigerator and freezer and gave it to the folks in the neighborhood who were able to grill it before it spoiled.

7:45pm – our power returned 49 hours after we lost. Most of Lake Placid is still without power. We invited our daughter and her family (who were still without power) to stay with us until their power was restored.

There is a curfew in Highlands County tonight from 9:00pm to 7:00am tomorrow morning.

Monday, August 16, 2004
10:00 – phone service returns. We are now back to normal. The daycare Center got its electricity back, but is still without phone service.

--------------------
Lake Placid - 27.3N 81.3W


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cyclone_head
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 74
Loc: Florida
Still Here in Orlando!! [Re: MikeC]
      #20388 - Mon Aug 16 2004 12:05 PM

I am here....was a rough ride though. We were at CAT 2....I pray I never have to ride Cat 3 or above....Pics to come later...No power still at my house. Live right downtown Orlando.

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Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
Re: Earl's future [Re: LI Phil]
      #20389 - Mon Aug 16 2004 12:16 PM

Quote:


My thoughts and prayers go out to you Richard, and all the others affected. That was some post earlier. It probably belongs in another forum, but for now it stays right here, for all to see.


Thank you sir, and to all the others that have given me insight and knowledge that helped me, and I'm sure many others, to have the ability to make informed decisions that in my case at least, reduced my losses to negligable. The inconvenience is still here, but my losses are low.

Having been through Donna, Camille, a couple in the 40's when I was young, and now Charley, experience has taught me to keep informed. This forum is a great and valuable resource in getting the information needed to make informed decisions. As a pilot, I know weather is important, as a weather hobbiest, I know it is also something we all need to keep informed about. Thanks to you and all who make such valuable information available.

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
Re: Earl's future [Re: Ricreig]
      #20390 - Mon Aug 16 2004 12:32 PM

It could have been anyone of us who live in Florida. This website has been the most useful tool in gathering our thoughts and action plans and to deprive each other of feeling complacent or going through some form of denial. When there is a giant on the loose as was Charlie we all need to take heed and take appropriate action. Nothing is more important than our own safety and that of our loved ones.

With that said the Cape Verde season has barely begun and there is another wave of interest out in the Atlantic. Also, we must not keep or guard down with the apparent demise of Earl, it may only be for the moment, and may resurrect in the western caribbean, or worse, the GOM.

Charlie teaches us to remain vigilant and always be prepared for the possibility of coming face to face with a giant; it does not have to be our apocalypse but we must respect nature for its might.

--------------------
________2024 Forecast: 28/14/8________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
Charley's Lessons and Earl's Future [Re: LI Phil]
      #20391 - Mon Aug 16 2004 12:36 PM

Hey gang...made it through Charley with minimal damage to our home. We were to the west of Charley's eye, although we did experience some very high wind gusts. We lost a part of our fence surrounding the pool pump and some palm fronds. The neighbor directly across the street lost two trees. There are a lot of screen enclosures around here gone, or ripped apart. Tree limbs everywhere but all in all people in my area were extremely lucky. Not so for the people we know to the east of us. As you've heard most of stories from other Polk county residents, I won't repost it again except to say that it was not pleasant for them. I don't have an anonomometer (sp?) but I can tell you that we had significant winds as we were just on the outer fringes of Charley's western side. I want to post more of a human side to the story and what I've learned from this hurricane.
When the storm began changing it's course and began heading towards Ft. Myers, there was great relief here in our house until we looked at the map. That's when we realized that Charley's eye could pass directly over us. Our relief was short-lived. However, except for BayNews9, who understood what this meant to Polk County and the other inland counties near us, most of the other stations (especially ABC 28) made it sound as if Tampa Bay was completely out of the woods. I got really upset with Dennis Phillips as he kept saying, "Folks, let me just say this again, IF this track verifies, and I believe it will, Tampa Bay had just ducked a huge bullet." Later on, he was still preening his feathers and that's when I picked up the phone. I called the weather desk and told them that I lived in Polk county and could Dennis Phillips stop saying how great he was and start informing the folks in Polk/Highlands/Hardee etc counties what THEY could expect since the storm was making a beeline for us? The veins in my head were practically popping out. It wasn't until about 2-2:45 that he broke into a news conference from one of the Tampa Bay counties to inform the inland counties of the dangers. BayNews9, Tampa Bay's CBS 10, Fox 13 and News Channel 8 had been doing an okay job, but BayNews9 did the best job overall. We were able to make it through the storm with up to date forecasts after that because I think Dennis Phillips got a smack upside the head from his boss.

Then, of course, there were the people the next day who said they weren't expecting Charley to hit them and were mad at the NHC and other stations. I will defend the NHC and the stations here because they continually said that the cone was very important because it could hit on the left side or the right side of the "official" track and that could make a big difference. Well, it did. Those counties that got the hit were in the CONE and they WERE under evacuation orders. If they did not heed them, I'm sorry for them but as Jeb Bush said, they had what they called "Hurricane Amnesia". A lot of close calls here that never came to fruition left people feeling blase about the whole thing. People who stayed in mobile homes after being told of the dangers put their own families at risk. A lot of the elderly didn't leave because shelters don't take pets. That's probably the main reason for the death toll in Punta Gorda. A lot of people didn't leave because they can't drink in shelters or do whatever they want to in shelters. All of these things are what lead to an unnecessary loss of life, and although of course I have compassion for them, I also have a bit of anger for those that want to cast blame on the NHC and other outlets. It simply comes down to being responsible for your own actions. If you're told to leave during a hurricane, then by all means, LEAVE. If you don't, the only place to look for blame after the fact is in the mirror.

Yesterday my sons' football league had their Jamboree. We heard stories of people without electricity, water, etc. who still made the trip here to participate. People around here just a couple of blocks away have no power. We have a lot of gas stations closed. However, there are some people who just can't look past the end of their noses and see how lucky they are...like my son's coach. He was complaining that they should have had more people here because "that damn storm wasn't that bad" and we should have been making a lot more money than we were but because people had "few limbs down they chose not to come." I let loose on him, too. I told him that football may be the center of his life, but there were people all over this county who had NOTHING left, even some of his own players, and if all he cared about was the stupid money he didn't make than he was one sorry individual. I also told him that he might want to take a ride around Polk County and look at the devastation around him and instead of blowing hot air out of his mouth, start using it to help other people. I told him that although he was generally a nice guy, at that time I thought he was a pompous, selfish, uncaring person who didn't have a lick of compassion for anyone. Even the Bucs weren't playing, for goodness sakes! My outburst was quite loud and I have to admit that I was a little embarrassed afterwards, but I didn't really care either way. I fully expected to be told that I would no longer be the team mom for his team, but that never happened. Instead, we were informed over the intercom that $1 of every admission fee would go to the American Red Cross Disaster fund.

I'm sorry that I have gone on so long about this, but I've never been through an actual disaster that hit so close to home and it's amazing the way people react to it. Some of us are just different than others and can only see it when it hits us, unfortunately I see everything and I cry like a baby to see people suffering but I also get mad when people refuse to take responsibility for their actions.

I sure hope that Earl stays a tropical low, but I don't think he will. I also hope that we don't have another storm hit anyone again, but that's unlikely. At least I know what to expect and to all those out there that haven't experienced one and want to, let me forewarn you: the reality is quite different than what you can imagine. It isn't any fun staring at a Cat 4 coming up your back door. A 1 or 2, maybe but not a major one. Be careful what you wish for, my friends. You might just get it.

On top of all that, I just learned that I have strep throat and I am feeling really ratty. So forgive my rantings, feel free to edit anything that isn't necessary and thanks for listening.



--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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