LI Phil
User
Reged:
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
|
|
That's a good question, and I really don't remember...I don't usually put a lot of stock in the anyway (many think it stands for "Good For S---"). Alex had only just formed and I was probably only looking at the short-range models. It was actually Bastardi who pointed it out in today's update; for verification purposes, lets just see what's doing what on the 26-27th...
Invest 95L back up on ...no 's yet, Danielle still strong at 4.5/5.0. Earl's still breathing... 
PS: just looked at the loops and saw Bugsy's post, and it sure looks like a dead on collision. Just too far south now.
--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
Edited by LI Phil (Tue Aug 17 2004 06:54 PM)
|
Steve hirschb.
Unregistered
|
|
I agree that the wave in the east Atlantic could be a problem down the road. I seem also to feel, based on the current pattern, that Florida may not get a "bye" this year. When it comes to tropical systems the hurricanes don't remember, but the pattern can. I have concerns about the Palm Beaches this year.
|
Rabbit
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
|
|
JULY 31 FORECAST:
AUG 5/3/2
SEP 5/3/2
OCT 3/2/1
NOV 1/1/0
as I said before, i will no longer update the monthly forecast. However, if any of these numbers are exceeded, i will obviously have to increase the yearly forecast
looks like this will need to be done if we get any more systems this month (Its the 17th--we will very likely see at least two more)
comparison to my 7-31 forecast for august
5 storms--already there
3 hurricanes--already there
2 major hurricanes--already there
if this were the 31st, I would have hit the nail on the head. But with 5 already this month (several recent seasons were on D or E at the END of the month) this forecast may have to be increased very soon
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
Another link
IKONOS Satellite Image Photo comparisons of the area from the 15th and from 2002
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
forecasts are more accurate at the end of the season, than at the beginning.
|
AlphaCane
Unregistered
|
|
Quote:
I agree that the wave in the east Atlantic could be a problem down the road. I seem also to feel, based on the current pattern, that Florida may not get a "bye" this year. When it comes to tropical systems the hurricanes don't remember, but the pattern can. I have concerns about the Palm Beaches this year.
Yeah, if people somehow think Florida is now immune to hurricane hits the rest of the year - I bet a lot of people are harboring that delusion. September, remember. October is no bye month either!
|
LI Phil
User
Reged:
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
|
|
Quote:
forecasts are more accurate at the end of the season, than at the beginning.
I agree. Generally, if one updates one's forecast after each storm, one would have a perfect "forecast" at the end of the season. And they say hindsight is 20/20.
--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
|
Ronn
User
Reged:
Posts: 115
Loc: Seminole, FL
|
|
Quote:
Yeah, if people somehow think Florida is now immune to hurricane hits the rest of the year - I bet a lot of people are harboring that delusion. September, remember. October is no bye month either!
Unfortunately, late September and October is the prime time for landfalls along the west coast of Florida. Troughs make their way farther south this time of year and can force systems northeast across the state. Let us hope that the area devastated by is spared during the second half of the season.
Ronn
|
HanKFranK
User
Reged:
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
|
|
we have an active cat 2 hurricane, but it's quiet compared to the activity of the last two weeks. danielle moving northward now, shear influence apparent on the system. globals that don't shear it to bits and spin down the circulation are taking it over the azores as a weakening tropical storm.. that's the official and that's what sounds good to me. a rapid spin-down would result in a remnant low ambling around in the eastern atlantic for what could be days, but i'm not on board with that idea.
earl remnants.. running westward as an open wave like some of the globals were predicting.. the rabbit voodoo hex did the trick. some of the wave energy may work it's way across the lower rim of the BOC in 36-48hrs.. with some lingering troughiness in the area there's a remote shot at a disturbance there.. but probably no. there is a decent northerly flow ahead of the advancing wave.. it's very sharp.. but that's already moving onshore honduras. the wave axis is almost to the coast.. at cape gracias a Dios (cape thanks to God, but i like to think of it as cape gracias adios, thankyougoodbyecomeagain). earl's best chance of doing anything interesting is really to spawn a pacific cyclone.. august has been mighty quiet over there.
with earl settled, the next (and almost only) item of attention is the low amplitude wave near 10/32 at this hour. it's scooting along a bit faster than the general convergence to the west near 45w, and will possibly interact with the convection already there (perhaps a weak e-w trough there triggered by the passage of the wave that spawned danielle). globals have backed off on this particular feature, but i'm seeing less run-to-run consistency just lately.. they aren't getting the wave speed and timing right. thus the progression shown on is unlikely to happen as indicated.. the wave of interest should be around 50w by thursday afternoon and possibly have spawned a low by then. i'm reckoning an invest out of this sucker thu/fri (maybe earlier, but don't think ratings will appear prior to then). this is low confidence, but feasible.
next wave coming off tomorrow, enough space between it and the current interest. globals picking up on it too.. have to see just what comes off.
hanging troughs in the subtropics have the outside potential to give us a hybrid cold-to-warm core system.. the one northwest of danielle is amplified enough to have some potential. weak trough of the east coast has some associated convergence.. pressure high though. not advertising these as being close to likely, just enough there to merit a glance.
we shouldn't have a new system prior to saturday; pleasantly unexciting day as we near the core of the season. not much reason for it to last very long. negative ought to get back around by early september.. with bursting negative every couple of weeks we should get more shots of activity in the coming month.
HF 2206z17august
|
Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
|
|
I find interesting that the wave in atlantic has not be mentioned in the tropical weather outlook.But by only looking at sat pics it looks good with convection but maybe without a surface low and tht is why maybe there is no mention or no invest yet.
--------------------
My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
Edited by Cycloneye (Tue Aug 17 2004 11:16 PM)
|
bobbistorm
Unregistered
|
|
A wave SSE of Danielle is mentioned in the Tropical Discussion. The convection is far to the south of the "center" of the wave. Looks nice on sat imagery though. Looks can be deceiving though.
I was wondering if that was the low that the models were directing towards Florida...however I believe that is a wave that hasn't come off of Africa yet.
Maybe someone can clarify that for everyone
Bobbi
|
1234
Registered User
Reged:
Posts: 7
|
|
Quote:
I find interesting that the wave in atlantic has not be mentioned in the tropical weather outlook.But by only looking at sat pics it looks good with convection but maybe without a surface low and tht is why maybe there is no mention or no invest yet.
I think that will be our next named system . Stay safe down there Cyclone eye 
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
|
h2ocean
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 91
Loc: South Merritt Island, FL
|
|
Well...I just took the hurricane panels down this evening...maybe that will jinx me! That wave looks decent, but it seem the models are backing off this evening. Of course we know how the models can be!
--------------------
Merritt Island, FL Home Weather Station
|
LI Phil
User
Reged:
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
|
|
>>> Of course we know how the models can be!
Yes, moody, anorexic, self-serving and generally equipped with a Paris Hilton attitude...
oh, wait, you meant the global and tropical models. Well, they've all got their own peccadillos too.
Looks like a brief respite from the tropical action. Good thing too. There's probably not a citizen of the great state of Florida who couldn't use some extra sleep ATTM. Sleep tight, you may need the extra rest this season  .
Peace y'all,
LI Phil
--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
|
met
Registered User
Reged:
Posts: 8
|
|
that disturbance looking pretty organized tonight. and afica has alot ready to come off the coast.
|
Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
|
|
Been reading the posts for the last 2 days and looks like most came thru it with a few bumps, Seems to be a lot of guilt in the Tampa Bay area, because it missed us, I myself have given Money to help the poor souls 80 miles south of us do to 30 mile shift to the right. This was one that this old sailor has seen a few times before in my life, I hope nobody ever needs to see Cat 4 or 5 again.
Dave
|
LadyStorm
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 154
Loc: United States
|
|
We just got our power back, I can finally say, that I have lived thru my first cane here in Ormond Beach. I was scared, but when the eye passed this way, it wasn't the picture that I had seen in my mind. It was night outside, and I couldn't see what was going on. When I woke up the next morning, I could not believe what I was seeing thru my eyes. Uprooted oak trees, trees on houses and cars. Trees and utility poles snapped like twigs. I have never seen any of this with my own eyes until this past weekend. And it was only recorded as a category 1 here. I can't even imagine what a 2 or 4 would be like to experience first hand. I have more of a respect for hurricanes now then ever. What a truly scary experience. 
--------------------
"The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of
thinking we were at when we created them"
..........Albert Einstein
|
GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
|
|
I am noticing that energy left over from Earl. Some of it has crossed Central America, some of it hasn;t. I checked the WV loops and the angles from both the Gulf Loop and the Caribbean loops are difficult to distinguish because they appear to be shot at different times and there is not any clear follow through. The energies following in the path of Earl and also look threatening to me. The reason is this: My agency has lost power, use of its facilities in three counties. We have had employees sustain substantial losses and undergone substantial inconveniences like loss of water, loss of homes, loss of electricity, and no transportation. Every Thunderstorm we get adds to the misery and we are still getting those. I am working (Thank God) but I am working with no staff back up and I am working with people who are traumatized by this storm. The jails are full, the hospitals are full, and the treatment centers and service centers are crippled. We were on the lucky end of the storm compared to Punta Gorda and Port Charlotte. Having said all this. I am extremely nervous about the least little cloud that pops up in the GOM and BOC, not to mention the waves coming out of Africa. The worst thing in the world is the local media saying, Earl is history. It gives a false sense of comfort. A storm by any other name could be Andrew, , Donna, Opal, Fredrick, Josephine, Erin, David, Gabrielle, or no name from winter 1993. In every case, no one expected it to be that bad(almost no one) in every case people who were as prepared as they knew how to be, got hit and suffered anyway. Please, Please, meterologists on here who have any knowledge at all, please let us know as soon as you suspect anything. We who want to be prepared need to have at least one piece of peace of mind, and that is that we did every thing we knew to do to prepare.
--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
|
MikeC
Admin
Reged:
Posts: 4544
Loc: Orlando, FL
|
|
American Red Cross donations
https://www.redcross.org/donate/donation-form.asp
(800) HELP-NOW
Salvation Army
http://www.salvationarmyflorida.org/
Catholic Charities USA
(800) 919-9338
United Methodist Committee on Relief - (800) 554-8583
FEMA
http://www.fema.gov/rrr/help2.shtm
|
Allison
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 134
Loc: Laredo, Texas
|
|
I know this thread continues to drift off-topic, but I wanted to add two more to the list...
Emergency Animal Rescue Service
http://www.uan.org/ears/
Humane Society of the United States
http://www.hsus.org/
Each of these groups of volunteers has been deployed to Florida -- EARS in Polk County and HSUS in Charlotte County -- to set up temporary animal shelters for those who are unable to keep their pets while they are staying in shelters and hotels, rebuilding their homes, etc.
They also rescue stranded and injured animals in areas where residents have not yet been allowed to return.
Allison
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
Edit
Reply
Quote
