Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Hey Lois. Tough to say. models forecast it back to positive, but they don't go much farther than 15 days out (or at least not any links @ do that I know of).
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
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http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/global_precip/gif/am_ir_monthly_1.gif
Here is the latest on .The wet phase or favorable is about to spill into the atlantic as the green lines show at link above.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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The wave at approx. 21W10N looks quite impressive on recent sat pics...maybe an Invest later today. Think I read that the models have been playing with it...right?
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bobbistorm
Unregistered
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When you say "just about" ... give a rough estimate please. I'm not very clear on how fast it moves and think at times the pace is different.
Thanks
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Here's the post from the Morhead City am forecast:
TROPICALLY SPEAKING...AFTER
AUGUSTS ROBUST 2 WEEK OPENING ASSAULT OF ALEX/BONNIE/CHARLEY...NOT
FORGETTING DISTANT DANIELLE AND WHAT WAS EARL...ALL BASICALLY QUIET
ON THE GULF/CARIB/TROPICAL ATLANTIC FRONTS SAVE TO SAY KEEPING
EYE ON TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MI E OF THE WINDWARDS MOVING
BRISKLY W IN THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY 20-25 MPH FLOW OF IT ALL.
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
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http://www-das.uwyo.edu/~geerts/cwx/notes/chap12/mjo.html
In the link it is all explained in detail because I dont know how to explain all the technnical things about it.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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LONNY307
Unregistered
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/eatl-wv-loop.html. When looking at the loop you can see in white shade the short wave trough that I guess is loaded with dry air heading southwest. If the wave around 10n25w can get by the trough it may have a chance. This to me, seems the reason why the tropics got quiet all of a sudden. As long as another trough doesn't come by in this area, I think we will be back in business. 
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HanKFranK
User
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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not going spend too much time in subtropical dreamland... just try and ID the upcoming pattern. danielle has bowed to , ignored the rest.. so it will linger south of the azores as a weak system. i'm impressed by lately.. been doing a good job. pattern right now is somewhat amplified.. with a rex sort of block east of newfoundland (mid/upper ridge far north with a cutoff piece stuck in the ridge to the south). emerging pattern won't support that.. things are flattening out now. subtropical ridge axis near 25N.. far to the south. with NAO going negative the troughs which have been sticking should start to split, so the wavelengths ought to be shortening some and upper height anomalies should start backing westward. subtropical-type development possible with splits and such.. nothing in particular looks that way for now. has a pattern.. still a week or so out.. with the atlantic ridge axis lifting poleward a tad, and weakening in the central atlantic.. height anomalies in the east and west atlantic. if this ends up verifying.. well, ridging near the east coast will be there to bring west what doesn't go out up the middle.. with retrograding ridge axes a storm that pairs with a height max will get far to the west. something to mind this time of year. it'll have to keep showing from run to run before being taken seriously.
as for culprits.. the lead wave is flat, low amplitude.. only sort of stuff. i don't expect much from it. no cookie there. wave near the cv islands right now has more convection, but still fairly flat. tracking some of it's energy on an initially more northwestward path.. through the big mass of subsidence drawn down on the back side of danielle.. which given recent successes merits consideration. some future waves getting attention.. but that's not worth much until they come off.
activity popping up in the eastpac finally this month is probably heralding 's arrival.. been a non player so far this year, have to see what it can do.
enjoy the quiet while it lasts. that TD in the eastpac suggests it won't stick around. counter is on.. usually 5-10 days
HF 2225z19august
Edited by HanKFranK (Fri Aug 20 2004 09:40 PM)
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RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator
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Posts: 342
Loc: St. Cloud, FL
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"If you guys & gals need to emote, I pretty much think the whole board is in agreement that it is absolutely fine to do so."
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Dang State is shipping generators to the counties to insure the elections go smoothly. Never mind the thousands upon thousands who don't have power and can't afford generators and are enduring the heat 24/7 -- at least government will run smoothly.
Now, if they had provided those same generators to the social departments and allowed a few homes/blocks to have some refrigeration (much less a fan or small a/c), it sure would make more sense. What a pity if the elections are thrown off a week or two.. oh boy.
Sorry.. had to rant after seeing what I have seen.
it's o.k., hurricane victims need some slack. maybe you can tell us when the U.N. election minders show up later on. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Fri Aug 20 2004 12:19 AM)
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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Or maybe someone here can make a contest.. See when the next storm forms..named storm. Can easily see five days.
Enjoy the calm ...it won't last.
Bobbi
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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In case anyone's interested here is NOAAs updated hurricane forecast.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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The STATE is providing hundreds of generators to victims, and to the elections. NO ONE is not getting a generator due to the elections.
That was not a rant--it was irresponsible rumor mongering.
Note to the anon...if you're going to make statements like this, please identify yourself
Edited by LI Phil (Fri Aug 20 2004 08:34 PM)
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bobbistorm
Unregistered
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Hasn't come off yet but its beautiful on imagery
Best one i've seen in a while
Can we please have a new topic for a forum. Think its time unless we are waiting for Danielle to do something different.
Have a nice weekend..Bobbi
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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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it is unlikely a system will develop over the weekend. the developing pattern will favor subtropical developments.. maybe close in (frontal leftovers, shortwave splits near the east coast perhaps). steve pointed this out to me.. with the ridging forecast in about a week near the eastern seaboard anything nearby would be serious trouble. but for now, just a potential trouble region based on the pattern. some other outside subtropical possibilites.. the deep layer system that is shearing danielle.. which is entraining plenty of energy as it hovers near 30/45.
the eastern atlantic waves are suffering from variable easterlies at different altitudes.. low level surge pushed the first wave rapidly west behind earl, second wave is an out of phase energy bubble and a denuded low level turning axis.. both are now just drifting westward. the energetic wave about to come off africa should overtake it's forerunner.. should put some more energy in phase and maybe start an organization trend. with the trudging, slightly backed appearance of the eastern atlantic i'd say the area is somewhat primed.. with the onset of negative things should improve.
anyhow, with the upcoming pattern, retrograding ridges and transient, fast moving systems in the subtropics that split when they slow should be the rule. this is the pattern that favors stair-stepping longtrackers, and hybrid development at times. i may be wrong, but think we'll get a taste of one or the other next week.
HF 2158z20august
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
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Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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The Cape Verde season is upon us; it appears we will have a a wicked season!!
remain alert!!
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________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
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Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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This time last week I was worn out, sure that we had survived the worst at our house and worried about our friends to the east. I am magnetically drawn to the loops and slightest color in the infrared satellites. I noticed tonight which I am sure is part coincidence and part nature, that the areas that were free from thunderstorm clouds on the still satellite pix, were the hardest hit areas from last week's storm. Coincidence and expenditure of heat energy in the atmosphere?
I mowed my 3 and 4 foot lawn, tonight after dinner. I noticed that there were no sounds of cicadas and that this was one of the loudest noises I was aware of last week prior to the storm, particularly Thursday night. I saw a rain frog while coming in after dark tonight. There was a lot of heat lightning. There are some snails that are crawling and hooking to the garage door. The last storm effected us mostly from the Northeast. The position of the snails on the house tell me they know something is up maybe coming from the Southeast this time. My insects and animals do not run scrawls at the bottom of the TV set saying where the weather is going to be, but they do indicate storms will be, and to some extent how strong they will be. I don't think the snails are lost for a minute. They know something is up. They just have not indicated when or how soon, except that they are already getting prepared for it. That's my opinion and I am sticking to it.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Wow, you're really observe a lot of things, that I wouldn't even look at right before a hurricane. I wonder what type of forecasting model they use! Next time I have a hurricane heading toward LI, I be sure sure to observe things like that.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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HanKFranK
User
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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i don't know how credible the actions of snails are in weather forecasting.. unless they're leaving slime-trail messages like 'beware the tempest" or "the lightning is coming" or "heeeeere's johnny!!" on your windows. kinda doubtful, but not to discredit the signs nature gives when trouble is in the air. i'll feel like a dope if florida gets whacked again, in other words.
wave emerging off west africa now has all the sound and fury of howard dean on the campaign stump. SAL should provide a sedative effect. wave near 65w flared to life tonight as well. negative 's effects are becoming apparent now.. the mid august interlude should pass inside of a week.
HF 0549z21august
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LadyStorm
Weather Guru
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Posts: 154
Loc: United States
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I don't think the animals have a forcast model, but they have an inner sense that nature gave them and not us. I have read about animals behavior prior to a natural disaster.
MaryAnn
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Wow, you're really observe a lot of things, that I wouldn't even look at right before a hurricane. I wonder what type of forecasting model they use! Next time I have a hurricane heading toward LI, I be sure sure to observe things like that.
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"The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of
thinking we were at when we created them"
..........Albert Einstein
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
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Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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This has to be the most 'perfect wave' this season. Now the debates and excellent commentaries begin. Perhaps a new thread is in order for 65L and the soon to be named L wave off Africa.   
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________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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