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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
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Earl Falls Apart, Danielle Cat 2 Fish Spinner
      #20409 - Mon Aug 16 2004 07:03 PM

Quick update to let you know that Tropical Storm Earl has degenerated into a tropical wave, but still has a chance to regenerate as its winds are still fairly strong.

Danielle is out to sea, but maintains itself as a category 2 hurricane. And another wave near the Cape Verde islands is worth watching for later.

Charley is still the big story in Florida and stories and reports are welcome here.

Charley's Coordinate History and final tracking map.


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LI Phil
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Re: Earl Falls Apart, Danielle Cat 2 Fish Spinner [Re: MikeC]
      #20410 - Mon Aug 16 2004 07:15 PM

Thanks for the new thread Mike! You were awesome in keeping the board running through Charley.

Finally some GOOD news. A nice fish spinner and the (for now) end of Earl. I'm definitely of the mind that he will regenerate, at least up to TS status, possibly more, but he's Yucatan bound an probably only a worry to South Texas, if that.

Anyone with personal accounts, stories, even secondary or tertiary-hand accounts of the storm are all welcome here right now. If you guys & gals need to emote, I pretty much think the whole board is in agreement that it is absolutely fine to do so.

On a side note, I received a number of PMs this afternoon from "survivors" thanking "me" for the great coverage. I didn't do nothin' other than sit here in my monitors chair making sure we kept the Orlando Waitings and Roberts off the air. Via this post, I'll pass along all your kind thoughts to Mike, John, Ed & HF...and you guys were outstanding throughout it all!

Finally, it looks like the tropix will be mellow for the rest of the week, though Earl does bear watching and Frances may be borne from the wave which exited Africa yesterday. At least I can say with relative confidence that Floridians do not need to worry about Earl.

After what happened with Charley, I hope no one on these boards wants to root on a storm to greater and greater strength...maybe a fish spinner...but that's it. We're now just entering the heart of the season, and I venture to guess that if the season were to end today, we'd consider it "active." The Good Lord only knows what's in store in the coming weeks...almost don't even want to think of it.

Again, anyone who's just getting their power back or who hasn't been able to post for whatever reason, please feel free to do so.

OK, peace to all...as long as you are not injured or dead, you should probably consider yourself among the lucky.

LI Phil

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

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Former Floridian
Unregistered




Re: Earl Falls Apart, Danielle Cat 2 Fish Spinner [Re: LI Phil]
      #20414 - Mon Aug 16 2004 07:49 PM

Been lurking for over a week. Hope everyone is ok. This little corner of the www has been very good to me. See, Family still live around Tampa and having been a cloud watcher all my life, hurricanes are especially interesting.

Your stories, advice and knowledge have been very consoling for many a person besides myself, I'm sure.

Anyway, now it is nice to vicariuosly live thru Charley via your words. Glad to hear that this forum is inviting you to speak out. Thanks admins and mods. You're doing a good job.


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RedingtonBeachGuy
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Re: Stories [Re: LI Phil]
      #20417 - Mon Aug 16 2004 08:06 PM

On Aug 7th I questioned if Charlie was going to make the turn towards Tampa.. he did. On Aug 11th we boarded up and ran to Orlando before the rush. Glad we did as our beloved Gov. forgot to invoke the National Guard to make I-4 one way.

In Orlando, we stayed at the Residence Inn at Lake Buena Vista and, as you know now, the eye went right over us. A weather channel reporter reported gusts at 95 mph there - 75 mph sustained. Trees were knocked down and the roof of some adjoining motels lost tiles, but overall the staircases were full of hotel guests and we all were fine.

The hotel provided free dinners and breakfasts which was very nice. They also gave us flashlights and glow sticks in case the power went out - but it never did. To top it off, drinks were free the 12th from 5 - 6 pm.

Observation: DOT needs to open major Intrastate roads for the first 4 hours of daylight the day after a storm for emergency vehicles and utility vehicles. I-4 was ridiculously packed with over 250 tree, electric, and emergency vehicles trying to get south to the damaged areas. Folks returning to Pinellas, Hillsborough, and other outlying counties could have easily waited till 10 am to start their trek home thus allowing the needed workers a free ride on the roads.

FYI: I took the turnpike to 50 and over to I-75 and cruised all the way home from Orlando with no stopping.

I returned to find only 9 homes (one of which was mine) boarded up on the barrier islands here (Madeira Beach, Redington Beach, Treasure Island, etc..). Some might have pulled it before I returned at 2 pm Saturday but I doubt many did that fast. One of my neighbor's here said he didn't care - 'that's why I pay high insurance rates' he said as he sat in the outdoor furniture that would have become missles if the hurricane hit.

Considering the amount of energy that passed from west to east, we are very lucky the death toll is as low as it is. I made a donation to the Red Cross and hope all that read this will do the same.


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recmod
Weather Guru


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Re: Stories [Re: RedingtonBeachGuy]
      #20418 - Mon Aug 16 2004 08:35 PM

Here's an update to my story in the on-going Charley saga.

3 days after the hurricane and finding a gas station with gasoline to sell is near impossible. Last night I drove around for almost an hour before giving up. By now, one of my two vehicles was out of gas, which necessitated car-pooling in my household. After work today (first day back since the storm), I finally found the service station right in front of my neighborhood had received a gas delivery. I ran home, grabbed the car needing gas and got into a looooooooong gas line. I noticed there was a police officer guarding the pumps. After an hour in line, I finally got to the pumps to find they were nearly sold out...with only one remaining pump running. I talked to the cop, who told me that fights had broken out over getting gas. This is a really sad commentary on the state of affairs. Instead of pulling together, people are bickering over gas. The Orlando Sentinel newspaper today is filled with such stories.
After getting the car filled with gas, I went home.....only to find my house with no power. Those who read my earlier posts might remember that I was one of only 10 houses in my entire 1400 home neighborhood that did not lose electricity....and now I lose it 3 days after the storm! I called the power company and was informed that a substation somewhere in town was severly damaged and some sort of chain reaction backlashed through the system, knocking the entire grid out. They have no idea when power will be restored.
School has now been cancelled until at least Aug 24.....a week from Tuesday! That has many families in a quandry. One of the managers at my place of employment had to bring her two children to work with her today because her home has no water or electricity and she didn't want them home unsupervised.
The restaurants that are able to open have been swamped with business...mostly from people without resources to cook for themselves. (I have never before seen a line at Mc Donalds stretch around the block!!!) Now, a number of those restaurants are being forced to shut their doors because they are running out of food!
It seems like the hardships from this storm have no end. Hopefully, we have learned a few things from Charley...and take a few extra precautions to be better prepared....the next time.

--Lou


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Tropics Guy
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Re: Charley aftermath, Earl and new wave [Re: LI Phil]
      #20419 - Mon Aug 16 2004 08:35 PM

Just wanted to thank MIke, ED & all the moderators(HF & Phil) on this forum for keeping the site up and running during Charley, it was extremely busy and a few times I couldn't get on probably due to system overload, but of course that can be expected during an emergency situation like we had.
Here in Southeast Fla. we are all breathing a sigh of relief that we dodged this one, and of course we are all concerned with the situation in SW Fla, and feel for all the folks there, many of them retired who came to FL to spend their last few years in peace and quiet, and now they have to rebuild their lives again.
Since Andrew the building code here in SE Fla is the strictest in the country, and there will probably be changes in the codes on the west coast of Fla now too. It remains to be seen if they wiil continue to allow mobile homes in that area, the reason i'm saying that is since Andrew , there are few if any mobile homes in South Dade county now, they've been all replaced with Concrete block construction.
Anyway back on the tropics, think that Earl will regenerate in the NW Carib, cross the Yucatan then threaten either the mex/tex coast., also I think that we will see a new invest soon on the new CV wave that seems to be tracking more west than Danielle did at the development stage, also it is starting at a slightly lower latitude. 6 weeks of busy action ahead of us, hopefully no more US hits.

TG

Edited by Tropics Guy (Mon Aug 16 2004 08:39 PM)


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HanKFranK
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personal/business [Re: RedingtonBeachGuy]
      #20425 - Mon Aug 16 2004 09:08 PM

before the usual analysis i s'pose i'll toss in some info on relatives and their experiences. mostly a laundry list of minor to moderate damage. cousin in orlando lost a large tree.. blocking the yard, roof damage on the house. power still out. uncle in winter park has only minor damage, power back on last night. grandparents in bartow.. limbs down, no power. aunt west of bowling green.. orange grove nearly destroyed, house fared o.k. utilities gone. uncle west of bowling green.. still no word. aunt in avon park.. most of roof blew off, house uninhabitable. that's the worst known.. away from the eye too. everyone is alive and unhurt... expect the unknowns to turn out fine.. for that i'm grateful.
basin looks a lot quieter now with an open wave and a recurving fish spinner. earl had us all excited a couple days ago.. yesterday even. naturally, it's a speeding/open wave. rabbit voodoo strikes again (run rabbit run). it has a decent chance of closing up within a couple days.. but is looking strictly yucatan/BOC for the forecast period. too much uncertainty to say if it will try coming out of the BOC, if it can redevelop, if there is enough weakness in the ridge (or not too much low level easterly flow). too many layers of if.. easier to just say weak/mexico.. which is probably what will happen.
danielle.. classic neat recurvature far out to sea. most modeling has it going far enough north to guarantee that it's extratropical successor would be a weak occurrence as it nears europe. that's the way it's looking, at least.
development threats.. as the NHC discussion says, GFS keeps developing the wave currently south of the cv islands. it may falter some, but as it gets near 40w we can start looking for the organization the globals are calling for. not expecting a danielle slam-dunk recurvature out of this if it develops. in a day or two another significant wave will come off, though models don't seem very excited about it.
nothing that exciting anywhere else. other suspect areas would be sheer paranoia to mention. one maybe.. GFS insistence on not recurving danielle has me thinking it may be picking up on entrainment of some of the storm's energy into the loop of upper trough setting up shop southwest of the azores.. that's a remote plug for hybrid development, from out of the twilight zone. just a creeping thought.
my prayers are with those who had to contend with Charley, may you all be blessed in your time of need, in the aftermath.
HF 0107z17august


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Stories [Re: recmod]
      #20428 - Mon Aug 16 2004 09:32 PM

(duplicate post removed by moderator -- btw great post bill)

Edited by LI Phil (Mon Aug 16 2004 09:41 PM)


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BillD
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Re: Stories [Re: recmod]
      #20430 - Mon Aug 16 2004 09:38 PM

Although it was a long time ago, it seems like yesterday as I can't help but remember back to Andrew reading all these stories, I remember the lines waiting for gas and for ice, my homeless firends and familiy, the National Guard checkpoints, the incessant helicopters, I could go on and on.

My uncle who lives NW of Arcadia and everyone in the small community he lives in (just a few houses out in the middle of nowhere) are all OK, and their homes are mostly OK, although they have not been able to check out my uncle's house because there is 10 feet of water between where they are and his house (they live in the flood plain of Horse Creek, a tributary of the Peace River and it floods all the time). My cousin drove up early Sunday morning and took them a pickup truck full of supplies, they had another friend who was bringing them three generators this morning (they live so far from town and the entire power system was knocked out so it will be a long time). The only other sad thing is that most of the trees are down, I know that sounds petty after hearing about people injured and worse, and I can't begin to describe this place that he lives, but it was full of old, twisted, huge oak trees, a really beautiful place, and it sounds like it is flattened. This is what had the most effect on me after Andrew, the destruction of entire forests that had taken hundreds of years to grow.

Bill


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Jamiewx
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Video [Re: BillD]
      #20433 - Mon Aug 16 2004 10:34 PM

Here is some more video someone took from Charley in Punta Gorda as it was coming through

http://www.extremestorms.com/Mark%20Rackley%20view%20of%20Charley.wmv

and in case you didn't see the first one

http://www.extremestorms.com/Charlie%20Core-%20Punta%20Gorda.wmv

it all comes from http://www.extremestorms.com/ this site also has some dangerously close video of storm surge too and much more.


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LI Phil
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Re: Video [Re: Jamiewx]
      #20438 - Mon Aug 16 2004 10:54 PM

Jamie,

I'm sure the folks who just went thru Charley will appreciate the extra coverage of the storm. Maybe another forum for this coverage???

Not trying to be difficult, you're one of the best posters here...but maybe something so close to home should be put into another forum...

Peace out y'all,

LI Phil

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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BillD
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Re: Video [Re: Jamiewx]
      #20440 - Mon Aug 16 2004 11:09 PM

That is one of the first video clips I've seen that even approaches the sound reality of a hurricane. There is no way to describe the "howling" of the wind, you can only experience it. It is much like the second half of the video clip, but you feel it as much as hear it, and of course you can't feel it when it is just a video. I got goose bumps listening to that second half.

BTW, these guys are crazy. I certainly hope that these cameras are prelocated and then run remotely.

Bill


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Danielle and earl [Re: BillD]
      #20441 - Tue Aug 17 2004 03:05 AM

Remains of Earl continue to decrease in intensity by satellite estimates. Latest, 0615Z, still showing a moderately large area of lightning on the leading edge of the "wave formally known as Earl". At this rate of decline NHC/TPC will probably cancel the Recon flight for this morning.

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
17/0615 UTC 14.9N 77.3W T1.0/2.0 EARL
17/0600 UTC 21.7N 39.5W T4.5/5.0 DANIELLE
16/2345 UTC 20.2N 38.4W T4.5/5.0 DANIELLE
16/2345 UTC 14.7N 75.1W T2.0/2.5 EARL


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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


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Re: Danielle and earl [Re: danielw]
      #20442 - Tue Aug 17 2004 07:21 AM

Please forgive the nervous questions, but I am seeing a thunderstorm in the BOC this morning and I am seeing earl's remains still causing subsidence in the WV loop, (I think). Can anyone meterologically competent, address the issue regarding the possibility of redevelopments. The short answer is: anything is possible and I know the short answer. But, Is there anything long term out there that would physically change the atmosphere for allowing Earl to regenerate, short of a giant Vacuum cleaner, say: a strong winter like cold front?

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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LI Phil
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Earl's future [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #20448 - Tue Aug 17 2004 10:22 AM

GG,

As far as Earl is concerned, it has the proverbial snowball's chance of affecting Florida. In fact, he may not regenerate at all. The open wave that was once Earl will be to the YP by Friday and that's when any redevelopment could really begin. At worst it's a Texas storm, at best it just fades away.

Now, the GFS in 10 days has a hurricane hit on the Florida coast...take that with a grain of salt for now, but just know that the models are starting to pick up on something. We're entering the meat of the season, so all those waves need to be watched. But as far as Earl...fahgedaboudit.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Maxx NFM
Unregistered




Power back [Re: MikeC]
      #20449 - Tue Aug 17 2004 10:26 AM

Just got power back and finally able to got online. I'm here in N. Ft. Myers, just south of Punta Gorda and man what a ride it was. HankFrank you were damn close with your call on a Sanibel landfall. Congrats!. Sympathy to those in areas that lost everything. I was lucky. Well I got to clean up now that I have water will post again later. PS thanks for any video and pics posted as I have seen very little and will post some of mine if interested.
Again thanks to all
Maxx


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gary
Unregistered




Re: Earl's future [Re: LI Phil]
      #20455 - Tue Aug 17 2004 01:04 PM

Hey phil, what about danelle doing a loop and coming right around back to us in florida? The met on channel 12 here in JAX mentioned something liek this in one of his reports. Maybe thats what the model is seeing.

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joepub1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
Re: Power back [Re: Maxx NFM]
      #20456 - Tue Aug 17 2004 01:07 PM

All of Florida is still in a state of shock. The SW corner is in really bad shape, and needs a bye for the rest of the season. I work for Publix, and we have had 100 stores suffer affects from Charley, mostly from power problems, some from employees who have to find somewhere to live, but not much damage to our stores themselves (no stores put out of busness). I grade my store a "D" as far as being prepared for this; we found that when the person who orders the batteries is from Sweden, the word 'hurricane' doesn't exactly provoke fear from the guy. Lesson learned on that one. My store manager is now coming to me asking what I think of Earl and anything else out there. Kinda funny, he couldn't hear me last week.

Danielle is off to the fish, don't know what will be left in a few days or if any of it will threaten Europe. Earl ran himself out of the picture for the moment. I for one don't see anything coming from him that would harm the US.

In the Atlantic, at about 10N 30W NRL needs to put up an invest on that wave. It's in this season's favorite breeding ground and today seems to be pulling it's act together with a large blowup of convection. So far on my gut feeling scale, Charley pegged it early, Earl never did anything for me, but this one could be a problem. Ridge should rebuild nicely above her (Frances?) and a fish it will not be. If it stays weak, it stays low no matter what. Develops, and the islands as far north as PR could feel her. It seems that we are going to continue to pay a price for these low waves coming off of Africa; what is going on with that?

Edited by joepub1 (Tue Aug 17 2004 01:21 PM)


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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master


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Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
Re: Earl's future [Re: LI Phil]
      #20457 - Tue Aug 17 2004 01:22 PM

Hello LIPhil:

Question: In retrospect, what did the GFS indicate 10 days before Charlie slamming into Punta Gorda/Port Charlotte?

--------------------
________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


Edited by rmbjoe1954 (Tue Aug 17 2004 01:58 PM)


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Rabbit
Weather Master


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Re: Earl's future [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #20464 - Tue Aug 17 2004 02:45 PM

Earl does not have the slightest chance of regeneration because it is about to move into Nicaragua in about a day

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