HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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always more likely that any given storm out there will recurve, but those early progs by were sorta off-looking... whatever part of the pattern that may be planning to tug this baby out away from land probably hasn't been identified yet.
expecting a named system tomorrow. the convection looks solid and intense like a particular invest 98E did last night, about eighteen hours before it became hurricane frank. not expecting that rapid a development, but do think 96L is well on it's way to being a tropical storm.
gonna keep harping on the close-in development potential.. frontal wave currently east of the carolinas is peeling out.. models identified it and are taking it out on the tail of the shortwave.. whatever is left behind it should stick out there for the next few days and try to develop. we should have an idea of the particulars by wednesday afternoon.
danielle's convection is going off stronger than it has for days, now that the outlook has stated it's redevelopment chances are closed. diffluent path near the exit region of that upper low to the northwest.. did the trick. danielle may redevelop briefly tuesday into wednesday.
feel safe in saying this: we're looking at 2-3 new systems in the last days of august.
HF 0434z24august
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bobbi
Unregistered
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IF thats a fish... she's one of those colorful Bettas.. sitting there in her little bowl just East of the Cape Verde islands waiting for us to put her into a bigger container before she swims anywhere.
Looking very much like a TD today if not already a TS.
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Hardcore
Unregistered
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I expect it to be named by 5pm today. Very impressive already!
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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There seems to a mid-latitude cyclone from the past cold front that traversed the East Coast of sat. in the Alantic Ocean, off the coast of the South Carolina could this be what the models picked up on. This system is now organizing and starting to spin up.
Frank is very impressive, it's showing some very strong convection, if it contiues it might even form an eye today, it should be a named system by 5P.M today.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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SirCane
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 249
Loc: Pensacola, FL
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Does look impressive,
any idea where it may go?
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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No eye will form today if your talking about not Frank. It will be few days before that happens. System off GA and S Car is still disorganized but could slowly become better organzied with the next impulse coming down from the nw during the next 24-36hrs. scottsvb
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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http://www.hurricanealley.net/Storms/96LALLMDL.html
The Italiano spaghetti and meatball run per Hurricane alley.... early model runs leans towards a fishing expedition, however, some disagree.....
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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only 4 show fish cane. most 7 show w or wnw. and even those that show nnw that could end and turn to the west.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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I think you need to recount chief... I count 6 with a definite north component... and one other moving NW in a position putting it well out to sea, which in all probability would make it a fisher... then I count another 3 moving on a good WNW track and 3 moving basically west... that pretty close to 50% IMO
6 n
1 maybe nw but far out to see...
3 wnw
3 w...
still looks like around 50%....
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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For where the system is presently located and its present stage of development, a 50/50 chance of it either fishing, or perhaps on the other hand impacting the islands or seems quite reasonable based on climatology and early model runs.... right now I wouldn't bet against either.... or on either
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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6 are going w or wnw......
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joepub1
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
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PR has this to say.....
"it has been rather quiet in the atlantic and there is little to change that in the upcoming week. the tropical disturbance noted out at 10 north 30 west will likely develop during the next several days but it will almost certainly move northwest and out into the mid atlantic due to the weakness in the mid atlantic ridge. "
You can see that their not worried.....yet.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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So where does the go with the initial motion call at (presumably) 5:00? In the middle of guidance, on the model that has been most reliable in '04, etc.?
do us a favor and ID yourself anon. that doesn't mean register necessarily, just fill in the name block. you'd might as well be one of the voices in my head, otherwise. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Tue Aug 24 2004 02:41 PM)
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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The would most likely determine the path based on what the majority of reliable models would be forecasting. Changes are made depending on the status of all variables that go into the decision tree that determines where the system goes based on size, speed, trough locations, etc. That would be my unreliable opinion.  
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________2024 Forecast: 28/14/8________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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sort of amazed ssd hasn't rated 96L yet. be kind of unusual for a system to go from unrated to a classified system. agree this should be a depression at 5pm.. solid convection, some banding features, obvious wind closure in the low cloud field nearby.. far be it from me to understand why this won't be t.d. 6 at five.
my version of the forecast for this thing is as such: wnw around 15 to past 40w early thursday, nw til the weekend.. mid oceanic trough fills, west early next week. it's that simple. intensity harder to prog.. think hurricane by thursday, but conditions deteriorate during the weekend as it gets some upper sw-erly shear (unless my track idea is badly mistaken).. then recovering conditions next week as it goes westward under the ridge. this will probably, almost surely, be a track north of the islands.
there is a low forming east of jacksonville/brunswick today, around 30.5/80. some upper westerly shear present.. which ought to slowly taper down over the next couple of days. i'm thinking this feature is the development threat for this week near the east coast. should remain quasi-stationary through early thursday, possibly begin taking on a tropical appearance. slow developer if it's going to do anything... if the model ideas are right it should move north or nnw.. affect the carolinas friday or into the weekend.
nothing much else. danielle hasn't redeveloped. weak wave ahead of 96L noted in the discussion as having a piece of trough to the north. lower end may flare up as it nears the islands later on, upper end as it nears the mid oceanic trough. expect little though. models still developing the wave following 96L, but it's still a day or two from exiting.
HF 1854z24august
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
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DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
24/1800 UTC 10.5N 32.4W T1.0/1.0 96 -- Atlantic Ocean
Well finnally SSD has T numbers for 96L.Still track is not a stone that it will follow the weakness because it is not a strong system as more weak more west scenario comes into effect.So let's see what happens in the comming days and see if the trough can grab the system northward and away from the lesser antilles.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
Edited by Cycloneye (Tue Aug 24 2004 03:03 PM)
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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
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96L continues to become better organized and continues westbound for now, would be surprised not to see it upgraded to a TD at 5pm or the latest at 11pm tonight.
TG
Edited by Tropics Guy (Tue Aug 24 2004 03:12 PM)
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EriktheFled
Unregistered
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This season has thus far seemed to be very "troffy"; I doubt it will make it to the islands. As the season progresses the trofs will only become more common in the central and western Atlantic.
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Doesn't look like we'll have TD6 at 5:00...I'd also be surprised if we have one by 11:00 either. I do see this developing into a hurricane, but very slowly. By Thursday we may see a marked intensification, but for now, status quo. Taking it's sweet time and waiting for the perfect moment to explode. Be very interested to see how this one plays out.
Waves are JUST STACKED up off Africa...this could be a very active end to the month/beginning of September. Just what we don't need. I don't see the future spinning the fishes...not even giving it 50/50.
>>> This season has thus far seemed to be very "troffy"; I doubt it will make it to the islands. As the season progresses the trofs will only become more common in the central and western Atlantic
Fled, is this based on sound meterological reasoning or just a gut feel...either way it's OK, was just wondering on what you are basing that statement. The will definitely be making a impact -- assisting with development but also possible recurvature. How deep and how strong remains to be seen. I don't see much affecting 96L because it's still really too weak to be affected by such things...and it's almost to 40W. Not a good sign.
Still sick, but back to work  tomorrow. Keep your eye on the sparrow...
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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For anyone with Accupro, don't miss Joe B's Meteorological Map Discussion. He took off his initial landfall intensity forecast and replaced it with the update. But what's really cool about the update is the lengthy discussion on the frictional effects of storms moving North, East or South of certain points of land. Very interesting video.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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