Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Monday early AM update
Still no invest up on the wave near 27w, though it is trending toward organization. It's should continue to move slowly westward, and is likely our next named system. As Ed has mentioned, Danielle's remnant low has continued to persist and is throwing convection again as it is starting a second recurvature into the deepening mid-oceanic trough. It has a slight chance to regenerate. At this point the only other convincing concern for the week we're entering is the chance of development off the east coast from stalled front remains, under the strong ridge forecast to develop over the northeastern U.S. this week.
It is quite likely that we will have an active system by midweek.
HF
Sunday Update - 12:30AM
Caribbean wave looks like it may not survive the shear - not exactly unexpected. What was unexpected was the lack of movement with the strong wave SE of the Cape Verde Islands - system hasn't moved much in over 12 hours, so scratch the idea about rapid development. I still think that it will get there, but at a much slower pace - the did move it slowly for a few days. The also projected that a strong mid-Atlantic trough would bisect the Atlantic ridge and the new cyclone would turn north into this weakness in the ridge in a couple of days. The UKMET projects that the trough will not be as strong and that the ridge will hold - and moves the new system generally westward - I tend to favor the latter option. Earlier on Saturday, Danielle became an open wave and advisories are no longer being issued.
Original Post
Looks like the short quiet period is about to end. Seldom have I ever commented on a sure thing, however, the wave currently exiting the west coast of Africa fits this category. It has excellent structure and could reach Tropical Storm strength before the weekend is over. The , which has done well with tropical systems this year, intensifies this wave to hurricane strength by mid-week. The system will encounter some shear for the next 24 to 36 hours, but after that, the green light for rapid development is on. The system should track west northwest - perhaps even briefly northwest for the next couple of days. The takes the system more northwesterly, but upper air patterns suggest that an eventual track to the west northwest or even west should prevail. The system has the potential to become a large hurricane.
An active tropical wave has lifted out of the in the last 48 hours and is currently moving to the west northwest at 15 knots in the eastern Caribbean Sea. This system has a good convective envelope that has held together overnight and it has a possible low level circulation near 14.4N 68.4W at 21/11Z. It faces some shear ahead of it. This shear should peak on Sunday and then slowly decline. If the system can slowly develop, it should move toward the northern Yucatan peninsula and then move more toward the northwest later in the week - perhaps toward the south Texas coast. Keep in mind that the development probability on this system is still rather low at the moment.
Tropical Depression Danielle is still around - drifting in the central Atlantic. Danielle may continue to drift for quite a few more days and has a small chance to briefly regain TS strength, but her ultimate fate is northward.
It looks like the week ahead will soon turn busy.
ED
General Links
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.
Follow worldwide SST evolution here:
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NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
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Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, , , JMA, , UKMET
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Multi-model plots from WREL
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.
Edited by HanKFranK (Mon Aug 23 2004 12:38 AM)
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
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Agree ED with your comments about the wave at east atlantic that looks good at this time.Now let's see in comming days what transpires with it but we are now at the real cape verde season period and to add to that the wet phase of is spilling into the atlantic so definitly it is a big candidate for developing into .
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Ed, I wish they had better news this morning. I was hoping for a longer lapse in the activity.
The fast mover in the Eastern Caribbean is sporting a real nice picture on the visible satellites this morning. For those interested, and can make better of the info than I can, Barbados, Curacao, and Grand Cayman sent balloon soundings for 12Z-Saturday. They are available here.
http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/analysis.sound.html
Here's to hoping the current frontal passage kills the system in the Cariibean or GOM.
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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i don't know about classified system before the weekend is out.. but yeah that's an invest later today. think has the wave speed all screwed up.. but otherwise ed the prog you gave looks as good as any as far as track goes. i'm with you on the inevitable development.. but if it goes off say east of 40w that reduces it's chances of ever making it across.
the wave near 65w came to life overnight and has impressive convection (but the ramrod through shear look as well). that's what can do for a system. if enough of it's energy gets into the nw caribbean and doesn't blow across cent. america, as is weakening the low-level ridge periphery and turning it up into the yucatan/w. gulf area... yeah, there's a mid-late week shot at it doing something.
at the same time, trough energy left behind near the southeast coast will have a good bit of ridging building to the north.. the sort of thing that can cause it to hang in place and fester. by the middle of the week i wouldn't be surprised to see some of the disturbed weather from the shortwave currently traversing the southeast looking mighty interesting...
not going to ignore the kink in the near 35w, ahead of the future invest/potential system exiting africa... was interested in it a couple days ago.. if the wave to the rear doesn't overtake this high amplitude/low convection feature, it will meet favorable conditions closer to the islands and possibly come to life as well. most likely it gets overtaken.. but just in case..
by the way.. last adv. on danielle.. still a good low-level swirl left. as that starts recurving, wouldn't be surprised to see it redevelop convection.. in a baroclinic environment of course, but still essentially a tropical feature. the upper trough to it's west that has been giving it hell is forecast to get a reinforcing shot and dive sw.. like a feeder into the (which has been noticeably absent this month).. it could also drag some disturbed weather southward through the subtropics... as a minor note.
anywho.. we'll get at least one storm next week.. possibly two. real stretch for more.
HF 1524z21august
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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Been kinda watching this system over the past 12-18 hours or so... last vis sat pixs shows a strong outflow boundry to the west-northwest of the system, which certainly does not bode well for development any time soon... it is getting a little more attention from the at the 11:30 outlook update...still hauling butt off to the west, looks due west at the moment, its still fighting the shear monster, and I just can't find any real or consistent hint of rotation at any level, at the moment...
be that as it may... its August, and we have a significant cluster of thunderstorm activity approaching an area that climatologically supports tropical development, satellite pixs are rather impressive, but NOT organized, and SSTs are right... anything IS possible
regardless, if any thing were to develop, steering currents as they stand right now, would in all probability take the system into central america, or perhaps the Yucatan., similar to the path of Earl...
bottom line, just a lot of premature speculation on my part as things still seem rather quite, but at least there is a little action nearby... that's what makes them so interesting to monitor....
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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let me qualify that earlier commentary on the future invest/potential . is developing the hell out of it.. getting it very powerful, and recurving it near 40w. that's because it initializes it and drifts it slowly for the first few days (unlikely it will move that slowly).. and in spite of tremendous ridging in the western atlantic, it considers a general weakness in the eastern atlantic to be enough to let it never get west.
this is somewhat feasible.. but i'm not ready to swallow that line just yet. if it develops early and gains a lot of latitude by mid week.. yeah, fully possible it will curve up at 40w. but this is classic .. early recurvature of systems is a historic failure of the model (though it has been doing well this year). but i'm going to hedge my bets that it gets a lot further west.
HF 1543z21august
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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Been my experience monitoring these things over the past 30 years that anything that close to Africa, once developed, (if it develops early) rarely makes it across the Atlantic... sooner they spin up, better probability for a more polar motion over time, at least when they develop that far out, statistically speaking of course, but there are always exceptions... as nothing is concrete with tropical systems
now if it takes its time in developing then all bets are off....
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Gulf Coast
Unregistered
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If this sytem deveolps, any idea which path it will take, a guess maybe? East Coast or Gulf Of Mexico? Thanks
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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This thing is so far out it would be hard for me to even make a good guess... all depends on when it develops as it has so much time to be influenced by a plethora of potential steering possibilities... development defined as being at least a strong tropical storm or Cat 1 storm,...
what the heck, lets have a little fun with this.....
Best guess.... with early development (off coast of Africa)
Not sure...............13%
Fish spinner........75%
East Coast...........10%
GOM...................... 2%
Best Guess...... with late development (midway across Altantic)
Not sure...............10%
Fish spinner........55%
East Coast...........25%
GOM.......................10%
Best Guess...... with real late development (close to the windward islands)
Not sure.................10%
Fish spinner..........05%
East Coast.............40%
GOM........................40%
Central America......5%
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Tend to agree with what everyone here has said, so I won't repeat the obvious. I think this one will be slow to develop, which may not be such a good thing. The shear, SAL and dry air seen on this wv loop seem to be taking their toll at the moment. At this rate, I doubt we'll have a system before the weekend is over (as HF pointed out), and as of this post, there is not an invest, so probably not until tomorrow.
I'm not buying into the just yet, despite it's rather good record this season; I think this does become TS before 40W, but no more than that. If it does make it to 40W at that intensity, then we may have a problem on our hands. Way too early to say we have a problem, only that at this point in the season, late developing CVs must be closely watched. I'm rooting for a fish spinner, but am going the slow development route...I hope I'm wrong (I haven't had crow for a whole week, so I'm hungry).
Happy birthday shout out to COOP, and go check out the storm forum and take the HF challenge.
Cheers,
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
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Well, I just got back from volunteering/helping out in the Punta Gorda/Port Charlotte area., video and still pics of the damage does not do justice, when you see it with your own eyes like I did today, it is just unreal. The real damage or where the eyewall went thru was about 10-12 miles wide and within that zone there are buildings literally flattened, many roofs off, and trees snapped in half. It will take that area probably 3 to 5 years to fully recover. Some good news though, most of the power is back on in the area.
Back to the tropics, I don't see anything imminent developing, but the CV wave I think will have a good chance as it moves further west, everywhere else it seems pretty quiet for mid to late august.
TG
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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What a kind and considerate thing to do on your part in volunteerism! Also, It is good to hear that the electricity is getting back to them. It is a relief to look in the Caribbean tonight and see that the little wave has sort of disappeared. I am looking forward to at least another week without any tropical threats to worry about. Florida needs a rest. 
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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bobbi
Unregistered
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It would seem from looking at loops of the epac and the that it is coming to life on cue. As it moves our way I wonder if it will be in our side of the water during the peak of the season. Interesting to watch.
Also saw Norcross on local interview this morning talking about the need to make sure people in the cone know the odds are the same within the width of cone and no higher odds in the center where the line is than the right or left and that we should change the way we broadcast the danger of the point of landfall.
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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That is a good idea. Also for the local mets, they should be less interested in the commercial aspects for their local stations and more interested in meterology. The little snappy come-ons have no place in storm forecasting.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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James88
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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The CV wave appears to have gained a little deep convection this afternoon. While it is a long way from becoming our next system, it is most probably only a matter of time. Interesting to note that if it does become , that will be the last time the name is used.
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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Hello James:
When the CV wave develops (only a matter of time) why do you say it will be the last storm named ? Are you predicting a major category storm with utter devastation? 
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________2024 Forecast: 28/14/8________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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James88
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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I don't think that it will necessarily develop into something big, and I certainly hope that it doesn't do any damage, but this is why the name will be retired regardless:-
"The Committee recalled that, at its session in 2002, the delegate from France requested consideration of a change of the name “Frances”, which is on the list for 2004, to be made at this session. The Committee agreed to change the name after the 2004 hurricane season."
That is from the website of the World Meteorological Organisation.
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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Okay..the wave looks a bit better tonight. Maybe we can wait out another 24 hours and get to that point where the has indicated it has a chance to develop more.
Still think we are a few days away from any real action.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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taking down .. another brilliant french idea, right up there with the maginot line (although not as dumb as freedom fries, i must admit). still no invest in the atlantic.. a full 24 hours after i'd have expected. wave near 25w probably has a broad surface low and i very much expect it to be a tracked invest tomorrow, and possibly a classified system by noon tuesday. it's just doing everything more slowly than i'd have expected.
future track past 3-4 days is iffy. should it be a tropical cyclone by later in the week, the atlantic ridge have a weakness in the middle out near 40-50w. the upper ridge building westward with it should yield to a strong subtropical/TUTT type jet tearing ENE out of the caribbean in it's path.. a classified system will respond to this by turning right. once past that.. though the fails to indicate this.. the strong deep layer ridge near the east coast should draw it back westward underneath.. that's what i'm expecting with the system, anyhow.
various stuff in the subtropics merits watching, with nao positive setting in. danielle's remnants and the mid-upper system immediately to the west have a chance to deepen as they are drawn northward into a baroclinic system (the trough that will weaken the atlantic ridge in the middle).
near the east coast frontal remnants are going to be hanging offshore under an upper ridge all week.. pretty much every one of the globals is forecasting low pressure to form off the east coast.. nothing deep at this point, but globals don't handle tropical development very well anyway, only point to it's potential in most cases. anything that forms out of that this week will be bothering someone, probably in the carolinas.
caribbean wave vanished as quickly as it blossomed yesterday.. very little chance it will do anything.
eastpac invest 98E is getting very active, more signs is coming into play.. waves that look totally inconspicuous are likely to perk up as the influence of negative becomes stronger.
globals looking very funny as of late.. possibly an offshoot of some strange weather anomalies we've had this year. confidence is lower than usual..
HF 2359z22august
Edited by HanKFranK (Mon Aug 23 2004 12:27 AM)
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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This is really a test message to clear up a post linking problem, however I'll use it to mention that the CV system is starting to gather some convection again - and it is still stationary at 25W at 23/00Z. Interesting to note that former T.D. Danielle is also sparking some convection this evening.
Cheers,
ED
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