caneman
Unregistered
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watch the area East of Florida. Metnioned in the 11:30 and definite spin on visible from Nexrad. Coup for Joe B. if verifies.
AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA ALONG AN
OLD FRONTAL SYSTEM. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT PRESSURES
ARE HIGH IN THE AREA AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR.
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Agree Caneman, coup for JB. Looks like a LLC is trying to form. Wish they'd reposition Floater 2 over it. The trof is now leaving the scene and the high to the north is definitely adding some spin. Gotta check some buoy readings for pressure drops.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Rabbit
Weather Master
Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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appears to be getting better organized on visible imagery with a well-defined circulation center and rotation, and outflow to the west
looking more like a TS with each passing hour
as for the system off of Florida, could develop by the end of the week, as upper winds appear to be in the process of developing an anticyclone aloft
wide view of both
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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TD 6 sure looks like to me. Its banding features look like a maturing storm, not a TD.
Regarding that system to the east of Florida - where do you think the center is located? It looks like it is more to the south of and not off of Jxville.
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________2024 Forecast: 28/14/8________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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Cocoa Beach
Unregistered
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http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/Maps/Florida.shtml
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troy
Unregistered
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the st augustine one was displaced after or just before Charlie..the 2o mile an d120 mile are up and running
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Hurric
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 116
Loc: Port St. Lucie, Fl
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A close in homegrown area of disturbed weather has hung out near 30, 80 for last couple days along old frontal line. This type of weather lingering over warm waters, as mentioned by many, always needs to be monitored for development this time of year. Not sure it would be a coup for anyone unless they are forecasting a cane moving up east coast and impacting areas on the way.
It does look today like something is starting to spinup. I am looking at the twist near in clouds around 28.5, 79. I wish I knew if that spin is the "Vortex Max" mentioned in the Melbourne NWS discussion. It looks likely to track off to the NE and the open Atlantic. Hope it attains TD status on the way out giving us something else to track.
Hurric
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Fred
Unregistered
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Agree Joepub...models are something like 50/50 with īt:
http://www.hurricanealley.net/Storms/06LALLMDL.html
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alan
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 95
Loc: Apopka, FL
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You sure wouldn't think that anything tropical was forming near Florida. I was out about 25 miles in the Atlantic out of Port Canaveral yesterday and there was not a breeze or a wave to be found. I thought I was on a lake.
As to TD6, that has got to be the best looking tropical depression I have ever seen.
And, not to compare tracks, but Andrew started as a depression about where is, dropped to a wave, moved northwest above the islands and then flattened out to move due west into Florida. That's a long, long way off, and I'm NOT saying it's going to follow Andrew, just saying to look at the analogies and that if models are saying it may not be a fishspinner, we need to watch it.
andrew was never operationally declassified from tropical storm, FYI. but yeah, that's pretty much the track. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Wed Aug 25 2004 05:59 PM)
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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What's the latest forward speed on TD6? Just curious if this one is a mover like all the others or the future is ambling along?
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ticka1
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 54
Loc: Southeast Texas
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That post was by me - I forgot to log in. Sorry!
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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They had it heading 275 @ 15 in the 11:00am discussion. has changed the name to on the home site.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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JB's giving increasing attention to the spin off Fla...mentioning that it is in the same area where Hurricane Carol developed 50 years earlier.
Also three of the last four runs of the have soon-to-be making US landfall, the last run takes it into the Gulf. The weaker it stays, the more of a threat it becomes to the US east coast.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Hardcore
Unregistered
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http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn/th...b-113N-369W.jpg
Everything that you wanted to know about
http://hardcoreweather.com/showthread.php?t=536
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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First of all this storm is moving around 15 to 18 mph to the west. It has been on a track to the west or slightly north of west for the last 15 degrees. Since 25 west. It has moved very little north since then. The has shifted left every run since the 00Z in now shows it skiming the northern leewards. What else is wrong with the is it is moving at around 18 mph this thing is not going to slow down as much as the says. I say by tomarrow afternoon it will be around 45 maybe 46 west. This could just as easly fellow the southern hurricane models with this.
So this is my thinking it should not get pass 12 north intill 11pm tonight. Then should not pass 15 north intill nearing 60 west. I expect a cat1 hurricane with in the next 48 to 60 hours.
NOTE TO ANON. You can choose to go back and add your name to this post or it will be deleted by 6:00 today.
Edited by LI Phil (Wed Aug 25 2004 04:39 PM)
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Tropical Storm Advisory Number 4
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 25, 2004
...Tropical Depression Six becomes Tropical Storm ...no
immediate threat to land...
at 5 PM EDT...2100z...the center of Tropical Storm was
located near latitude 11.6 north...longitude 40.5 west or about
1420 miles...2285 km...east of the Lesser Antilles.
Frances is moving toward the west near 17 mph...28 km/hr...and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph... 65
km/hr...with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is
forecast during the next 24 hours.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 45 miles...75 km
from the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb...29.68 inches.
Repeating the 5 PM EDT position...11.6 N... 40.5 W. Movement
toward...west near 17 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 40 mph. Minimum central pressure...1005 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
11 PM EDT.
Forecaster Beven
don't post a straight ripped discussion or advisory package without commenting on it in some way. there are already links to this information on the board. hardcore you do post a lot, why don't you go ahead and register, man?
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
Edited by HanKFranK (Wed Aug 25 2004 05:39 PM)
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LONNY307
Unregistered
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All those that called a fish will please dunk your head in the nearest aquariam. It starting to sound a little like Andrew track and that's not good. I know it's a long way out but I personally don't see anything to knock her out of the picture. Since the east coast trough has pulled west for now. The door is more opened for now but that can change in the "world of weather". 
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Post deleted by LI Phil
Edited by LI Phil (Wed Aug 25 2004 05:05 PM)
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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It has been mentioned before, but it bears repeating. Anonymous posts will no longer be accepted. You do not have to register, simply ID yourself in some way. Thank you.
More importantly, JB has again posted today and what he has to say about is not good. He's now calling for a CAT III (perhaps) midway between Hispaniola and Bermuda by next Tuesday or Wednesday.
I smell Hattaras.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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matt0033
Unregistered
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Quote:
First of all this storm is moving around 15 to 18 mph to the west. It has been on a track to the west or slightly north of west for the last 15 degrees. Since 25 west. It has moved very little north since then. The has shifted left every run since the 00Z in now shows it skiming the northern leewards. What else is wrong with the is it is moving at around 18 mph this thing is not going to slow down as much as the says. I say by tomarrow afternoon it will be around 45 maybe 46 west. This could just as easly fellow the southern hurricane models with this.
So this is my thinking it should not get pass 12 north intill 11pm tonight. Then should not pass 15 north intill nearing 60 west. I expect a cat1 hurricane with in the next 48 to 60 hours.
NOTE TO ANON. You can choose to go back and add your name to this post or it will be deleted by 6:00 today.
Wow why bash me into the ground! 
>>> Not bashing you. Every anon will be treated equally. Thank you very much for IDing yourself. Good post by the way.
Edited by LI Phil (Wed Aug 25 2004 05:14 PM)
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