danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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I have been following all the text model output since this storm was recognized. A98E and LBAR were nearly flawless in either the correct lat or long or both. Usually within 0.3 degrees on the latitude! This will make A98E an outlier, for the next several hours. Unless it continues the trend.
Outlier continues, but the other direction now!
29/1200z 18.7N/ 56.2W
30/1200z 21.2N/ 61.2W
31/1200z 23.6N/ 66.3W
01/1200z 27.1N/ 71.0W
**These are model parameters only. Not necessarily forecast tracks**
27.1 and 71.0 would put the storm around 670 miles East of Jupiter Inlet.
**Again, this model. A98E, is the Only model showing this movement. The other models are going No further North than 20.1N and no further West than 71.3W**
I am wondering if the wrong data got entered. Computers don't make mistakes, people do!
Edited by danielw (Fri Aug 27 2004 08:58 AM)
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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A98E has been doing the same thing for awhile with ...and really hasn't been good for a number of years. It's one of the less-reliable models that the runs, just for additional guidance.
First visible images show to be a very healthy storm with a well-defined - if small - eye. No way it's a strong 3/weak 4 at 11am, however. Middle 2 - probably in the neighborhood of 100mph - is more like it.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Appears that may be moving in a slightly new direction.
*These are SSD positions and aren't necessarily the same as positions.*
The last 6 hrs have a 0.4N/ 0.8W track.
Prior track was 0.6N/ 0.9W and 0.4N and 1.6W prior to that.
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
27/1145 UTC 14.7N 48.5W T4.5/4.5
27/0615 UTC 14.3N 47.7W T4.5/4.5
26/2345 UTC 13.7N 46.8W T4.0/4.0
26/1615 UTC 13.3N 45.2W T4.0/4.0
26/1145 UTC 12.8N 44.1W T3.5/3.5
26/0615 UTC 12.4N 42.8W T3.0/3.0
25/2345 UTC 11.8N 41.1W T2.5/2.5
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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But that appears to be W-NW as they are projecting. I do not see any 'real' variation- but you do-please elaborate.
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________2024 Forecast: 28/14/8________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc:
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Looks like the disturbance off the SE coast is getting stronger:
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html
Anybody got any fresh takes on this? Normal daytime heating?
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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I see that area to the east of GA/SC AND the area near Bermuda both flaring up.
These should be followed-up as well. I'd like to know impact these systems' potential development can have on and the developing ridge.
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________2024 Forecast: 28/14/8________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Those area's are flaring up because of day-time heating. They've been doing this for days now, just like thunderstorms (strenghten in the afternoon and weaken at night). These two area's need a boost, in-order to become self-sustained like hurricanes otherwise they will just drift as air-mass thunderstorms.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Frances will be upgraded to a CAT II at 11:00, winds 105 mph moving WNW @ 10mph
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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I really hated him in Beauty and the Beast (the cartoon version). Bastardi has now signnaled the alarm for development despite the absence of low level turning. He thinks that it will move ashore in the coastal Carolinas Sunday Night or Monday. He's not giving any parameters as the absence of feedback (to this point) does not allow him to predict potential classification. Me? I'd go on record thinking this has a chance to become a STRONG tropical storm (say 55-70mph) but more likely will be a 40-55 with a nice signature before it runs out of time.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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James88
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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That sounds reasonable, Steve. The system south of Bermuda may also give us something to watch.
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James88
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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NRL is now listing 2 new invests.
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Radar Loop
Got a nice spin to it, doesn't it?
Satellite Loop
Hard to tell, since floater 2 is still inexplicably aimed at Cuba, but there might be a LLC developing with the Carolina system. Good view of , though.
Edit: Go to , 97L and animate the image...that's where floater 2 should be.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
Edited by LI Phil (Fri Aug 27 2004 11:09 AM)
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SC Bill
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 24
Loc: South Carolina
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Looks like a long week ahead for coastal SC residents- as well as many others. Have been lurking here, and learning from all of you, for several years. has chased me out of lurker status.
Assuming we get past the "home grown" system, I have an ignorant question. , like , seems to have a relatively narrow hurricane force wind field. Is that capable of significantly expanding (to a Hugo/floyd type of storm), or is a compact storm generally always a compact storm?
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Welcome Bill. Usually a storm will show tendencies of increasing in scope if it is going to enlarge. (to me anyway) is a small to medium sized storm. But it remains to be seen whether or not its windfield will expand as it continues over increasingly warmer SST's.
Btw, Stacey Stewart put out a fabulous discussion at 11:00 today. He also did yesterday's 5:00. I wish they'd let him write all of them.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Quote:
Looks like a long week ahead for coastal SC residents- as well as many others. Have been lurking here, and learning from all of you, for several years. has chased me out of lurker status.
Assuming we get past the "home grown" system, I have an ignorant question. , like , seems to have a relatively narrow hurricane force wind field. Is that capable of significantly expanding (to a Hugo/floyd type of storm), or is a compact storm generally always a compact storm?
The simple answer is probably "yes" but I would refer you to TPC FAQ which may have a more definitive answer for you. Even if not, you can glean a tremendous amount of info on hurricanes just by reading the FAQ's.
BTW, Welcome Aboard, SC Bill. I like that...kinda like LI Phil. 
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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summercyclone
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 69
Loc: Florida Big Bend
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From 1130 (another system is also developing out by Bermuda...moving south):
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA...
CENTERED ABOUT 115 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON...IS DRIFTING
SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO
INCREASED AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE
THE SYSTEM TURNS WESTWARD TOWARD THE U.S. COAST.
WESTWARD!
sc 
Edited by summercyclone (Fri Aug 27 2004 11:46 AM)
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Generally compact storms are in the strongest part of it's life cycle. As it grows older it becomes bigger, usually because it's weakening, as the pressure gradient becomes larger the wind speed becomes usually weaker. It's hard to say with this storm because we don't know how strong it can get, these Cape Verde (CV) systems sometimes become very strong (ex. Isabel) and then weaken when they come near land.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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Hardcore
Unregistered
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Would the systems off the east coast have an impact on the future track of ?
http://hardcoreweather.com/showthread.php?t=536
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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The low pressure area off bremuda looks like something, it just started yesterday and I have a feeling about this one becoming Gaston. It has some spin on it and could impact the U.S , as probably a tropical storm.
Also the one off South Carolina is very organized, which one will devlop first? It's only 12:00
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
Edited by Jason234 (Fri Aug 27 2004 12:07 PM)
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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Frances has slowed down. That could be a good thing for Florida as the impact from the ridge could direct it more towards the west, right? That would put PR, Hispaniola, and Cuba under the gun, right? 
But it can also do a 'Flloyd' as well assuming it would naturally want to veer northward at some point.
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________2024 Forecast: 28/14/8________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
Edited by rmbjoe1954 (Fri Aug 27 2004 12:15 PM)
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