LI Phil
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Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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rmbjoe,
Frances will probably be upgraded to a CAT III at the 5:00; it might already be one now. Need to wait for the s but they're probably 5.5/5.5 as we speak...CAT III status.
>>> Frances has slowed down. That could be a good thing for Florida as the impact from the ridge could direct it more towa rds the West, right? That would put PR, Hispaniola, and Cuba under the gun, right?
I think, at least for the time being, you have to stick with the forecast...they have really been pretty spot on this year and I see no reason not to agree with the official track. Therefore, I don't see your scenario playing out for the moment. It's WAY to early to start guessing where will go beyond five days (even then there are hundreds of miles of forecast error)...Stick with the NHC five day forecast for now, but realistically, the 72 hour 'window' is really the best bet.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Check out the northward wobble. Interesting...lets see if it's just a wobble or a trend...hmmmm
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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Looks like the 'staircase' approach. That's not a good thing for the long haul.
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________2024 Forecast: 28/14/8________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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Brad
Unregistered
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Seemed to jog west again in the last frame, so likely just a wobble. I never noticed that you can play backwards the satellite loop that Phil posted. Pretty fun to do, actually, and in some cases might be useful.
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StormLover
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sat
Posts: 32
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Frances seems like a very well organized, compact storm, like . If it slows down some, it could gain more in intensity over the warm waters (providing there is little shear) and maybe strengthen quickly prior to landfall to maybe Cat 4 strength. After all, forecasters never thought was going to be as powerful as it turned out!
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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I've got a circulation center in its infancy around 31.5N, 78W. If you go to Goes 12 Vis, animate and then zoom to that point, you will see what appears to be some stronger banding type convection that's wrapping in toward the center. Looks like this could be either the last dry run or the beginning of the feedback.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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JB just posted his midday update...it's as long as his normal morning posts! Gist of it is that NC & SC residents had better be gearing up for a tropical storm and possibly a weak hurricane. is also a Carolina threat. The Bermuda system could be a Carolina threat. So, folks in NC & SC...you will be getting wet at the minimum and well...doomsday scenario ain't pretty.
JB also admonished Gulf Coasters that the potential for tropical mischief is as great now as it's ever been, so not to let down your guard.
Anyone heard anything about recon? For either invest or ?
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
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"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Storm Cooper
User
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Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
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I've seen nothing about recon as of yet but I'm sure it's soon to come.
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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Interesting to see if he is right.. Its easy to say NC/SC based upon historical info. If I were a betting man I would say the same thing myself. Anything would be better than another FL hit.. I am still without a roof , have lots of damage, and I have no Cable/High Speed Internet. Power was returned a couple days ago.
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Why don't just take a boat off the coast of Charleston and take surface observations, so they won't have to estimate the windspeed and pressure? It's pretty rough sea's but I'm sure a coast guard boat could withstand it, if planes can fly into a CAT 4 hurricane.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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joepub1
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
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Thought I'd throw in my two cents worth.
I'll start with 98L. It shares one thing in common with 97L; that is it's convection is lined up from SW to NE and a bit to SE of the broad center. And the center is still very large, I don't see signs of a tight LLC yet. Of the three, it's easily the weakest , but in an interesting spot. I think this one gets caught above the ridge and really doesn't threaten anybody. Something to watch anyway.
97L is one that's real close to the house. Looking much better this afternoon, I'd give it a 70% chance of becoming a TS. I've already had one encounter with this system, just as it passed off of JAX and started spinning it dumped about 4 inches of rain in about a two hour time period on my house. We had not seen a steady downpour without the thunder and lightning like this all summer, so I think it has a good bit of energy going for it. It's convection is getting closer to the center, and if it drifts southeastward and then goes west I might get a return of the rain, this time with a name.
Wasn't a talking mule in some movie? 
Now that I got my cheap shot at her in, this seems more like a humming buzzsaw. Yes, she took a jog almost due north for a few frames, but has settled back into a NW direction, which means she's going exactly where she supposed to go. The has started looking out beyond 5 days, and they don't like what they see. This ridge looks to be strong after 48 hours, in fact, it's as weak as it's going to get at this moment. If ( big if) it builds all the back to the SE coast, then it doesn't really matter if get's to 18N or 22N, she's only going so far before she has no choice but to haul butt west. Whole east coast is in question, it will take a few more days to narrow this one down. Gut feeling is this will hit land on a WNW track, making no one safe until she passes north of you.
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ticka1
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 54
Loc: Southeast Texas
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Quote:
JB also admonished Gulf Coasters that the potential for tropical mischief is as great now as it's ever been, so not to let down your guard.
What do you think JB means by this statement? Since he implies that will be an East Coast storm and there isn't anything on the horizon to threaten the GOM'ers? Just curious on your thoughts of his statement?
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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sounds almost like and Andrew Scenario somewhere on east coast albeit we are too far out to know for sure..
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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This system has excellent outflow, the cirrus clouds obscure the devloping rain bands, it is very orgainzed by looking a the visble sat. imagery but its convection is off to the southwest of the devloping LLC. This system has the chance to become a tropical storm as I metioned in another post, it's feeding off the sun and will continue to do so until about 6:00. Tom. I feel it will become a depression and then strenghten further to tropical storm satus or maybe even cat. 1. As we have seen before these homegrown systems can pack a wallop.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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SC Bill
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 24
Loc: South Carolina
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Whoa. Without infringing too seriously on JB's right to limit his thoughts to paying customers, can you be a little more specific as to the "dooms day scenario"? My neck of the woods (Hilton Head Island) has led a charmed existence regarding hurricanes for far too long. I wonder if a one - two, or even a one - two - three punch is about to even up the scorecard?
Was it Han Solo, or Luke Skywalker, who said "I've got a bad feeling about this . . . "?
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scottsvb55
Unregistered
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Han Solo
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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How large/small a storm is isn't really a function of overall intensity. It does tend to limit how fast a storm grows/decays, however; smaller storms can spin up faster but are also more impacted by shear and other negating effects. There can be very intense storms that are very large, and there can be very intense storms that are very small.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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I thought a strong and lasting ridge would push the systems (SC, Bermuda, and ) to the west- it all depends on the timing of all of their developments.
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________2024 Forecast: 28/14/8________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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A few responses:
>>Interesting to see if he is right.. Its easy to say NC/SC based upon historical info. If I were a betting man
His reasoning is the Newfoundland Wheel high pressure setup rather than an Andrew setup (high centered over Philly with a NE US Heatwave).
Ticka,
His response to the sleepyheads in the West and Central Gulf has to do with this:
High Res Gulf SST's
He believes the cooler than normal water off the South American coast is leading to higher than normal pressures and a deflection mechanism into the gulf later in the season.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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scottsvb1
Unregistered
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Lets see about a rebound from the Earl disaster that 95% of us took in forcasting. 1st blown 1 of the year for me and I average 2. Thank god it wasnt a landfalling hurricane blown forcast but still I didnt expect Earl to do much in the early going, and it was a 5 day forcast, nevertheless still a X for me.
Frances is going to be the tuffest forcast of the year so faroverthe next week or so.Gaston should form over the next 12-24 hours when recon gets in there. Should be a minimum TS but might get stronger as he brushes the Carolinas sunday and head NE and picking up speed. Pressure still pretty high off SC but slowly falling. This could become a depression later this evening.
Back to ,,,,,,tough tough call and how I forcast these systems I give a 3 day and 5 day scope. 5 day forcast of strength(always hard to tell) and landfall or position within 100 miles of a 100 mile zone. 3 days within 50 miles of a 50 miles zone. I stay with that forcasts and if changed then its a blown forcast. For example should be around 110-120mph near 18N and 60 monday afternoon. By weds aft near 20N and 70W. Winds too hard to tell do to very close prox to Hispaniola.
Models are spread out after Sunday morning12z. First the tropical suite of models generally change from run to run. Example is the A98E which is usually all over the place with the LBAR model. BAMMS generally do alittle better but overall the suite is useless. They generally dont factor in many aspects of the atmosphere for example Mid or upper lows.
Globel models generally dont pick up on strength of system out of the tropics that well and initializes them too weak and begins paths then off the correct track for a system stronger. For the has a better handle of her bringing her almost due NW between Bermuda and the Carolinas by weds, but has been to the right and will disregard this path due to it not having the strong zonal ridge forcasted over the western atlantic Sunday thru the next several days. Ukmet is farther Sw and the (preferred model) is just sw of the UKmet off Hispaniola (north). is not the most reliable model (constantly changing) as its performance at times is that of the tropical model suite. This model is close to the UKmet about 150 miles nne of the . Im going with the better and UKmet as they have a better handle of the mid and upper ridge that is forcasted to develop and also there will be some shear keeping her a strong cat 2 of (hate to say it (weak) Cat 3). THIS COULD BE A VERY DANGEROUS STORM IN THE SW BAHAMAS LATER NEXT WEEK. Though the forcast i give now dont go out more then 5 days. To say this is going to Carolinas isnt set no more then Texas. Florida is the U.S. first threat by Friday into the weekend next week. Remember models change and anything more then not only 5 but 3 days out will change. In the short term though i expect the NW course to continue with wobbles and a turn later tomorrow to the W near 17-18N. Scottsvb
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