Ricreig
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
I am reading everyone's discussions on but I still see the track trending more and more towards the lower Florida Eastern Coast AKA Key West and Miami - is there going to be a sharp turn in there and pulls her up the to the Eastern Coast? Just curious?
Yes it will turn. The question is timing. The ridge to the NE is building which will delay the turn, pushing the storm to the west. By mid-week, it is expected to receed to the north somewhat. This should pull the storm around its' left end, north west or even NNW. As has slowed somewhat, it may still be far enough east so that the curve brings it off the East Coast of Florida by Saturday. If it speeds up however, that turn could be heading toward Mobile per the . I think the NFS is holding their course till a trend develops they can put their finger on. Most of the models I've seen show a N-NW turn mid-week. The main difference is how far west before that happens.
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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joepub1
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
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I think they are not buying the solution about going to the GOM just yet either. It does sound more like they think the Floyd analagy is closer to the truth.
I don't think the GOM is likely to happen either. That being said.....this has been a very strange season in which a lot of the old rules have gone by the wayside. Bertha/Floyd are good storms to go by if you believe that's whats going to happen, but this year the unusual has happened so often (7 named storms,3 majors all in the month of August???) and the patterns, to say the least, have not been the norm. I just can't buy into a Carolina landfall at this point; I'm not convinced this storm ever makes a hard turn to the NW again (I believe it's coming back to WNW right now as I type) until it hits something on the east coast.
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Rabbit
Weather Master
Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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Dont bother checking the outlook--it is about 12 hours behind
outdated
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Maitland, FL
Unregistered
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Does anyone think that might turn, but do it to late and hit Florida? In this case, East Central Florida would be in the line of fire. 
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FlaRebel
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 59
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
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I'm not sure where she is going, but she is a beautiful thing. She seems to be getting bigger by the minute. No longer a small compact storm that she was yesterday. I would not want her knocking on my door for sure.
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ShaggyDude
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 112
Loc: Cocoa Beach, Florida
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Frances's T numbers are up to 6.0.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BUILDING UPPER HIGH OVER THE ATLC AND BENDING POWERFUL HURRICANE MORE TO THE WEST. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS SHE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...AND APPROACH THE SE BAHAMAS THU. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT COULD RECURVE...IF IT FINDS ENOUGH WEAKNESSES
IN THE RIDGE BUILDING NORTH OF IT. BY EXTRAPOLATING THE DAY 5 POSITION...HAVE DECIDED TO SHOW GRADUALLY INCREASING NE TO E WINDS FRI...BECOMING WINDY SAT.
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recmod
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
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>>>>>>>>>Frances's T numbers are up to 6.0.<<<<<<<<<<<
That would support a Cat 4 storm.....
My recent observations: appears to be bending back WNW in the past several satellite frames. The storm is also strengthening. The eye is much more distinct and very symetrical. Also, the cloud tops continue to cool.
--Lou
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recmod
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
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NRL now has at 130 mph, with central pressure 948 mb (27.99)
--Lou
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Recon went out to Gaston and found something much more than a minimal tropical storm...they almost found a hurricane.
Vortex message is reporting an extrapolated 996mb pressure with max flight-level winds of 59kt. They estimated surface winds of 60kt -- just below hurricane intensity.
Frances is taking on the classic donut look more and more with each passing hour. Outflow is very good in almost all quadrants. Recent images show a wobble back to the west, but that's probably just temporary in the short-term. The eye is well defined and I don't doubt that we may have a borderline cat-4 hurricane here with the next advisory. The appearance reminds me more of Isabel nowadays, but the track isn't the same. Still anywhere from Key West to Virginia needs to watch this one...I'm leaning towards the SC or FL coastline, but that's nothing more than a hunch.
Many, many, many planes will be in tomorrow and the following day. 6-hr fixes at low levels are scheduled starting at 18Z tomorrow; another Air Force plane will be in at 0z on the 30th flying at 31k-35k feet; the NOAA9 plane will be in at 43k-45k feet at the same time; the G-IV will be heading around the storm on the 31st at 0z; a WC130 surveillance mission will be in on the 30th at 18Z; a P3 mission with SMRF will be heading in on the 30th at 18Z; and finally, a buoy deployment mission ahead of the storm will take place on the 30th at 18Z (until the 31st at 0z) within 100 miles of 22.5 N and 67 W.
As a researcher into tropical cyclones, I'm excited - nay, giddy - about the possibilities this is going to provide. My focus is on transition for now, but the amount of data that is going to come out of these missions is astounding. The end of the weekend and start of the week should be fun -- let's see where we're at then in terms of landfall & intensity. Unfortunately, cat 5 is not out of the realm of possibility...sooner rather than later.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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SC Bill
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 24
Loc: South Carolina
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Does the recon info give any enlightenment at this point as to track? I am sitting here on the SC GA border, reading local statements, forecasts and advisories and had just decided that I MIGHT see 30 knot gusts at the most. The last NWS Charleston bulletin puts Gaston ashore near "downtown" Charleston Sunday evening at 8:00 pm. Any odds landfall could be further South??
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Maitland, FL
Unregistered
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Seems that is continuing to strengthing, and it also look like Cat. V status isn't out of the question. Still not sure where it's going to hit, but I got a feeling it's going to be another Florida storm, not sure where in Florida though. Hopefully it won't be as strong as it is when it gets here.
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Unfortunately, no. All that the recon can do is provide updates on the current intensity and structure of the storm; it's left to forecasters to use their own skill and the available products (models, observations, etc) to make a forecast. It's noteworthy to note that this is the second blown forecast of a storm in this region this year -- the recon's "flight level" was just a few hundred meters, meaning it's very likely we have a high-end tropical storm at 5pm, blowing past the forecasts. It's track is still up in the air.
However, the strength of this storm may well have an impact on the future track of . As Gaston is picked up by the approaching trough to the west and becomes , a boundary may well be left behind/strengthened by the merging/extratropical transition process. How far south this extends and how long Gaston lingers around will play a role in whether or not it affects . It's yet another kink thrown into the future forecasts of that the - and, well, most of us - did not expect.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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StormLover
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sat
Posts: 32
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Here's something I have been wondering about. If Gaston lingers around longer, could it help keep further south so that it would hit Florida instead of the Carolinas? Also, the longer Gaston lingers before moving away, how might it affect the strength of should it move towards a southeast US landfall?
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rickonboat
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 90
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At the very least, anyone on the Gulf Coast, and from the tip of Florida to Maine, better keep tabs on .
Sure looks Andrew like to be. The eyewall replacement cycle resulted in an eyewall 20 miles wide, increases the size and potential devastation "swath" this thing will bring.
When does the hurricane center ever mention cat 4 possibility...? now, I guess...
cat 5 Mobile, isn't such an outlandish joke anymore
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Hey y'all...just checking in then headin' down to the beach. Great posts all day...didn't have to leave the site to get brought up to date!
Assuming the site stays up, I'll be back for the evening sesh.
Cheers,
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Southern4sure
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 121
Loc: Land O Lakes, FL
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Quote:
Quote:
That's not a great URL cause it would take it right up Mobile Bay
Let me rephrase it...it is a great link depicting one models view of the possible future. On the bright side, the model seems to indicate a weakening trend by the time it arrives in that area....Can you take the rain?
I think Mobile can take the rain. Rememer Danny a few yrs ago? Stalled for 5 days in Mobile Bay and we got 47 inches of rain. I'll take rain...you can have the hurricane 
Southern4sure
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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If Gaston where to remain in place for a longer time it might upwell the waters and cause a decrease in water temp, which would make that area un-favorable for to strengthen.
I don't think it would push further south because there is quite an area of water sperating them, If took the current forecast that was said by the .
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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HCW
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
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We had 31 inches from Danny and can handle the rain really well. The storm surge is anouther story 
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
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Cocoa Beach
Unregistered
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I just wanted to note that you can look at and speculate data until your blue in the face. We will not have and idea of landfall untill 3 days out.
We have been duped into false tracks before.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html
I bet (I love to gamble) that she will cross 58 W before 20 N
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