danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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The new Advisories are out and can be viewed under the "Current Storm" headings.
NHC has changed ' 4 day and 5 day positions somewhat.
The fcst from 24hrs ago had 02/0000z 23.5N/ 70.0W
The newest fcst has............02/0000z 22.4N/ 70.6W
Not sure if that's good news or what, yet.
Edited by danielw (Sat Aug 28 2004 11:19 PM)
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FlaRebel
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 59
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
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I am still not convinced based on the latest models that this is not a GOM storm. She is a monster and I figure a Cat 5 before landfall. Stay tuned to the same Bat Channel and the same Bat Time! Hope she turns out to be a Fisher!
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JustMe
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 128
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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cetainly tracking
we don't need anything right now in Central Florida or south Florida
will see as the last 3 days the projection has moved a little more North. Going to watch Tuesdsay very close for what noah says about . Not getting to hyped yet ...
Keep all of us in and here in Florida in your thoughts. Those in the Bahamas too.
will be watching and waiting (praying too)
Just want it to go away.
JustMe
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I have survived Betsy Miss, Camille Miss., Andrew Fl, Charley Fl, Frances FL, Jeanne FL,
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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According to Norcross. Said that it seems expects to go a little slower as it approaches bahamas/florida and there fore they pulled back timing so cone looks further offshore.
Reiterated ...could go NW at that point or keep coming.
Said... Gaston could leave slowly and leave a low pressure area between the two highs (one over SE US and one over Atlantic) and could take it or... Gaston leaves faster and the high fuses together. (my own wording to shorten a long explanation) eww.. anyway..
So... that was what I understood was the change.
Storms often stall there when steering currents slip away. Betsy, Bonnie and I think Donna stalled a bit too.
Had thought of 1893 track when thinking could turn north just off shore but... didnt realize that the year I think has other similar tracks. Will see. Hate to put it there.. felt sick thinking on it however.. deaths at that time were caused by no warning and people living on low lying barrier islands.. which would be different as far as loss of human life vs economic impact.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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Seems to see the weakness left by Gaston moving 3mph and may I add that Gaston has developed a deep long tail filling up the area with moisture. Maybe reaching for straws down here in South Florida but... its a possibility. Or..can be pulled that way and then turn back to the west again I suppose.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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>>Well, if S2K said it, then it's as good as done. NOT.
I think there was a tropical roundtable broadcast. Not one to ever dis my 2nd home site, I've gotta call your mod butt out on that one. If said, it wasn't by a random poster but probably a professional met (they have about 6 that post there). I know you're a member there and were only teasing, but I had to set the record straight for anyone who didn't know that.
------------------------------------------------------
Anyway, Bastardi wins the Gold Medal for Gaston. Let's face it, there's NOBODY in the world putting out the stuff he is or at the same level. One day they'll look back on him as the god of pattern recognition. I'm sticking with my southern North Carolina call from Thursday @ S2K. He cautions everyone from New Orleans to somewhere way up (^) there but likes a NC solution as the compromise. He did mention two things worth noting in his 4th post of the day:
1) His dad has been discussing the idea of a ridge directly following Gaston. We know high pressure will already be building in, but this would be height rises in response to rather than falls left behind as he believes.
2) "I fear any hurricane that gets into the central gulf this year."
Heh. Don't we all. With the water running a good 86 and above throughout, and with analogs like 1985, 1998, 2002 and 1969, discussed here and there. That's a scenario that everyone should fear. There will be landfallS in the Gulf by mid-October.
Props out to everyone in coastal SC tonight. This glass of Sterling 2002 (analog wine) Merlot is for you. /wish I was there. With the slow movement, I'm betting rainfall estimates from earlier (3-5") are underdone. I'd be willing to bet there's at least localized of 10+.
Party on.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Rain looks like it could get out of hand, ahead and behind of Gaston. One of the tropical experts at said earlier Saturday that the Flash Flood Guidance numbers were relativly high and he didn't expect a lot of flash flooding. I believe that was said prior to the spinup of Gaston and the Recon reports. I'll check HPC for their updates.
COASTAL SC...
BANDING PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH TS OFF THE COAST CONTINUES TO
PUSH INTO THE COAST AND WEAKEN. WOULD EXPECT THAT AS THE
STORM INCHES CLOSER ON SUNDAY PCPN INTENSITY WILL INCREASE
AND SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED FLOODING.
Edited by danielw (Sun Aug 29 2004 12:43 AM)
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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This is a 7 day forecast from HPC. Issued at 7am Saturday morning. It shows a warm front off the E coast of FL, moving north. I'm sorry to say, below the warm front, over Miami is what appears to be . Here's the main page link so you can look. They update in the morning.
*As stated this was forecast at 7AM EDT on 28 Aug-1100Z*
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/premedr.shtml#preliminary
Edited by danielw (Sun Aug 29 2004 12:51 AM)
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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interesting DW, it also appears to me looking at the plots that the ridge is still going to be strong enough by day 7 to continue to move the system off to the wnw.... if it comes to fruition.... not a very pretty picture for SE Florida....
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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FP, you must have been reading the same item I was.
MEANWHILE ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...THE MODELS
FORECAST A RIDGE TO BUILD WEST INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
THROUGH 36-42 HRS...TO EXTEND AS FAR WEST AS 70W BY 72 HRS.
THE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE THE STEERING FLOW AND OUTFLOW IN
SUPPORT OF DEEP CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH HURRICANE
FRANCES.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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DW, I've been watching the IR Sat loop for the past hour and Sir is moving due west... at least he has for the past hour.... guess he could start the stair stepping process any minute but for the time being he appears to be going more west than WNW...
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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It would appear the he might be. The sats are in the sun eclipse now and won't be good til about 0615Z or 0215EDT. At least that's the pattern they've run the last couple of nights. About a 2.5 to 3 hours window each night where the sun is directly behind the satellite, in respect to the receiving station. Any way the sun creates so much electrical energy that the satellites can't override the Sun's signal noise.
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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc:
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Frank P.
My fear is that Francis will indeed be near SE Florida and then begin a Northward Curve up through the state.
Right around the Western side of the ridge.....???
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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That's what we were calling the Case 3 scenario. With 1 being a FL Straights-to GOM run. Case 2 a mainland-yuk hit and then the Case 3.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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well I think your fear is legit...still too early to tell, but most of the lastest model runs, at least the ones the rely on, are still trending towards S FL.... some even taking it into the GOM... as the does ..... things change with hurricanes.... as I've harped endlessly, its all about the ridge with ... hurricanes track around em, NOT through em... and this one will probably do that if the ridge is as strong as they are forecasting.... where the northwest to norht turn will occur is anybodys guess.... providing of course the ridge doesn't fall completely apart and we end up with another Floyd type track... which doesn't appear to be a strong possibility at the moment.... but nothing is impossible with these things...
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palmetto
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 23
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
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I hate to be nitpicky about this, but after all the talk during of spelling the name right and not calling the storm Chuck, Chas, or Charles--I've got to throw this out there.
The storm's name is , not Francis. is the feminine form of said name.
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javlin
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
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That's pretty much what AF MET and Derek Ortt where looking at the 174hr run.The talk was more about the synobtics than the actual models.The last couple of weeks no troughs digging S.The cool air we had for about three weeks has left.The question is Gaston's effect the faster it moves in the less the effect if any.It might be a wobble FP but morning time will tell.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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I did call it in my post? So why address this post to me?
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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I think that's why they used "Alpha, Bravo, and Charlie" in the 50's. No confusion.
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palmetto
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 23
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
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She'd be a Dame, not a Sir. 
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