JayBB
Unregistered
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Does anyone know if there is a recon tonight for gaston? i see
1. TS GASTON OFF SOUTH CAROLINA
A. 29/1800Z-0000Z
for tommorrow... is there one tonight?
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javlin
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
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looks 18.3 N 54.0 W
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BillD
User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
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Probably because you have been calling a he, rather than a she. But I refuse to call them either a he or she, they are an "it" to me. I find it silly that we even attempt to apply gender to any storm, it is meaningless.
Bill
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Weather2
Unregistered
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I am watching radar on gaston in last hr, the NE eyewall has come together more.... looks like he may make Hurricane stats by mid morning or atleast 11:00... there is good banding around the west side to the south and the wraping around to the east is improving... i am impressesd on how close to the coast he flared up in a short time.... just makes me wonder down the road, if gets into the GOM, the SSTs are alot warmer off the west coast of florida, then where gaston is right now (off SC)...Gaston blew up pretty fast yesterday and with the slow movement is still gaininn. Seemed like took note of that after leaving cuba and strengthened very quickly just off the keys.
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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1100 AM EDT SAT 28 AUGUST 2004
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 29/1100Z TO 30/1100Z AUG 2004
TCPOD NUMBER.....04-091 CORRECTION
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS--NO CHANGE
1. TS GASTON OFF SOUTH CAROLINA
A. 29/1800Z-0000Z
B. AFXXX 0207A GASTON
C. 28/1500Z
D. 32.5N 79.5W
E. 29/1700Z TO 30/0030Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
HRRRICANE
FLIGHT ONE...................... FLIGHT
A. 29/1800Z-30/0000Z........ .A. 30/0O00Z
B. AFXXX 0106A ... ..B. AFXXX 0206A
C. 29/1600Z... ....................C. 29/1800Z
D. 19.5N 56.0W... ................D. N/A
E. 29/1700Z-30/0100Z... .......E. N/A
F. SFC TO 10,000FT... ..........F. 31,000-35,000FT
FLIGHT THREE........... FLIGHT FOUR
A. 30/0000Z............ ..........A. 30/0600Z-1200Z
B. NOAA9 0306A ... ..B. AFXXX 0406A
C. 29/1800Z....... ...............C. 30/0400Z
D. N/A.......... ....................D. 20.0N 57.0W
E. N/A......... .....................E. 30/0500Z-1300Z
F. 43,000 TO 45,000 FT... ..F. SFC TO 10,000FT
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 6HRLY FIXES ON HURRICANE
, A GIV MISSION FOR 31/0000Z AND WC130 SURVEILLANCE
MISSION DEPARTING 30/1800Z. PSBL INVEST SOUTH OF BERMUDA
NEAR 29N AND 68W FOR 30/1800Z. BOUY DEPLOYMENT MISSION FOR
30/1800Z
TO 31/0000Z WITHIN 100 MILES OF 22.5N AND 67.0W.
ADDED--P3 MISSION WITH SMRF FOR 30/1800Z INTO .--ADDED
Edited by danielw (Sun Aug 29 2004 03:30 AM)
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BillD
User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
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Nothing was scheduled, and there are no obs coming in, so does not look like it.
Bill
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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TS Gaston flight should leave Keesler?, at 1100EDT. Tasked to be in the storm area from 13-2030EDT. In the storm itself from 14-2000EDT. If I read that right.
Frances flight should leave at 1200EDT, with storm tasking from 14-2000EDT also. Second and third flight will depart at 1400EDT for upper level recon at 2000EDT. Hurricane Hunters will be gathering data between 31-35,000ft. While the Gulfstream 4 gathers high level data between 43-45,000ft. Simultaneous flights at different altitudes should give better data than a single flight at 700mb.
Edited by danielw (Sun Aug 29 2004 03:41 AM)
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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The Charleston, SC radar loop is showing a shrinking eye over the last 1 hour. Also rainfall in the 3-4 inch range has occured over the last few hours along and just inland of the northern SC coast. In a narrow band from near Myrtle Beach arcing SW to near Orangeburg.
Buoy 41001 at 07z reporting 999.9 mb and 16ft wave. No wind data.
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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man, you really are a night owl. storm has probably deepened some more since the last advisory, d rating supporting a minimal hurricane and radar presentation looking about the same to me. 5am advisory will probably bump the system up to hurricane status.. it's window for intensification is closing though as its circulation begins to move onshore. my landfall point was initially tybee/savannah, then edisto sound, now.. looks like isle of palms, sullivans island, or bulls bay. didn't handle that one too well... intensity will probably be close though.
98L looking more ragged than earlier, wouldn't be surprised if next d numbers drop, unless the convection refires. westward steering with this system should deteriorate from here on, though it may get quite close to the hatteras area.. low may open up or entrain ahead of gaston. just the same a solid convective burst could drive the system to tropical storm status.. gulf stream ahead so this is possible.
frances a cat 4.. no surprise. fluctuations from here out.. talk of the cat 5 status exists but that's something i have to see to believe. cat 5s are such rarities it's sort of unkosher to forecast them, official or not.
watching chaba's path as it nears japan. should it teleconnect the primary threat area will be florida to south carolina.. labor day weekend of course. my primary is the east coast of florida.. with the margin of error to the north if anything... not going to bet on south florida below west palm beach. 3-4 range.
HF 0821z29august
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bloodstar
Unregistered
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NRL has Gaston at 60Kts and 991mb. As mentioned, the eyewall seems to be shrinking a bit, and either radar is doing a better job of picking up the convection, or the convection is starting to wrap around the eyewall. And either it's wobbling or it's starting to head east of due north.
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Looks like TD8 may not materialize. What about the convective complex floating north of Puerto Rico. Another land-based thunderstorm complex or tropical wannabe?
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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I looked at 4 different radar elevations and the top of the eye was small to begin with. Over the hour of looping the lower level eye appeared to have shrunk? to the same size as the upper eye area. This is unusual, as the top of the eye normally opens outward.
* Humorous note*-mod you may remove if you wish.
Off the Trop. Weather Discussion-
HURRICANE CENTER NEAR 18.3N 53.4W AT 29/0300 UTC MOVING
WNW 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 115 KT GUSTS 140 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB. SEE THE LATEST
FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC OR MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. FRANCE ? CONTINUES TO TURN BACK TOWARD THE WNW. THE SHEAR REMAINS LOW AND THE SSTS REMAIN WORM ...AND ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR.
more ...WITH DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE KEEPING THE REAMING GULF QUIET.
...AS THE RIDGE BEGINS
TO BUILD OVER THE MID-LATITUDES IT WILL BE A KEY PLAYER HOW FAR
WEST FRANCE WILL TURN.
Edited by danielw (Sun Aug 29 2004 04:50 AM)
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john03
Unregistered
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whats Gaston up to? Think land shear is taking over
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john03
Unregistered
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just wondering. do you fast forward back a year or rewind back a year? Looks like morning coffee is kicking in. man they got a long day ahead of them in office
000
WTNT41 KNHC 290841
TCDAT1
HURRICANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN AUG 29 2004
FRANCES IS AN IMPRESSIVE LOOKING HURRICANE AND IF WE FAST FORWARDED
BACK TO LAST YEAR I WOULD THINK I WAS LOOKING AT ISABEL. INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FOR REMAIN NEAR 115 KT.
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Must be the same guy that was looking for France to move west! Then again I can't blame him. He's got a monster to deal with.
...FRANCES IS EMBEDDED IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT
OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE SSTS ARE NEAR 29C...AND ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION SHOULD OCCUR. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT COULD
REACH CATEGORY 5 INTENSITY AT ANY TIME DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.
Edited by danielw (Sun Aug 29 2004 05:17 AM)
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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The and Joe Bastardi may both come up shining with - I wouldn't be surprised if this system becomes a mutliple land falling system.  twice (possibly a looping due to a weakened ridge) in Florida and again the Carolinas 
--------------------
________2024 Forecast: 28/14/8________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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mikeG
Unregistered
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i didn't see this yesterday, interesting run.... the worse part in the SSTs are warmer on west side of florida
00z run ukmet
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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I just noticed that they changed the 125kt forecast. Now delaying the 125kt increase until Thursday night.
Sunday 5am advisory:
96HR VT 02/0600Z 22.8N 71.4W 125 KT
At 11pm last night it was:
24HR VT 30/0000Z 19.4N 56.3W 125 KT
Edited by danielw (Sun Aug 29 2004 05:25 AM)
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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The sad part is there is nothing that I see that would contribute to the decaying cycle of until landfall; wherever that may be- somewhere between Miami and Melbourne-too early to even speculate-but given the variables now--who knows?
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________2024 Forecast: 28/14/8________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Have a look at the MCC/ Thunderstorm complex just north of Puerto Rico. We were watching it earlier, but now it looks like a is forming. Could someone have a look. I use the GHCC Sat site.
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