mikeG
Unregistered
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based on radar data, gaston should be ashore within 2 1/2hrs.... don't think cat 1 will happen... i see some weaking signs just off the coast.... beachs near (charleston) should be getting 50kts winds now or real soon...
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RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator
Reged: Tue
Posts: 342
Loc: St. Cloud, FL
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time for everyone in Florida (Jax to the Keys - Pensacola to Ft. Meyers and everyone in between) to start getting serious about . I remember significant damage in Tampa from Andrews who cut way south of us.
We are down to 5 days before landfall and it is time to start the plans in motion. Better to be over prepared than under prepared. Time to get the plywood, hire the contractors, get it up, get the sandbags ready, get supplies, and figure out where you are going.
Frances is for real.
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Daylight coming up. I guess TWxChannel will have a live shot pretty soon.
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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On a serious note. In addition to the above supplies and destinations. Important papers, deeds, social security info, wills, something that identifies your residence-Utility bills.
If you have the time and means, take photos and or videos of everything in everyroom, inside and out. Use a newspaper to date the video. Just take a good shot of the front page of that day's paper, before you start shooting pics. That will establish when they were taken.
this may belong in the disaster forum.
Visible pics are up.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/VIS/20.jpg
Edited by danielw (Sun Aug 29 2004 06:13 AM)
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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I can't make much of that recent blowup over Puerto Rico; or even more importantly, what impact will that have on .
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________2024 Forecast: 28/14/8________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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Hurric
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 116
Loc: Port St. Lucie, Fl
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The sw Atlantic is getting crowed with activity. Looking at IR loop now and trying to sort things out this morning.
At 26.5 and 72.5 there is a small spin that the tail from Gaston seems to wrap around. If 98L is north of it and Gaston off SC and far to se, what is this spin? Am I right in thinking it is a ULL? The area of convection north of PR also seems to be moving towards it. I could use an explanation from one of the experts here.
Thanks
Hurric
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zacros
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 57
Loc: Johns Island, SC
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Check out the following length for a live look at the weather on the Isle of Palms (a beach just east of Charleston). Shows 46 kt peak wind earlier. Pressure down to 998 mb. Unfortunately for the McClellenville, Georgetown and Myrtle Beach, Gaston is pushing on shore at the same spot did (Bulls bay).
Isle of Palms
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LadyStorm
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 154
Loc: United States
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Great advice, if you have ever been through one, the longer you wait, the harder it is to find supplies.
I don't see anything so far turning into a fish spinner. We all have to be prepared, she is a monster. Here is a pretty picture of . [
quote]time for everyone in Florida (Jax to the Keys - Pensacola to Ft. Meyers and everyone in between) to start getting serious about . I remember significant damage in Tampa from Andrews who cut way south of us.
We are down to 5 days before landfall and it is time to start the plans in motion. Better to be over prepared than under prepared. Time to get the plywood, hire the contractors, get it up, get the sandbags ready, get supplies, and figure out where you are going.
Frances is for real.
Frances
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"The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of
thinking we were at when we created them"
..........Albert Einstein
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Ricreig
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
I don't see anything so far turning into a fish spinner. We all have to be prepared, she is a monster. Here is a pretty picture of .
The latest (0600) map http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/04_ATL_06L.FRANCES_ssmi_gif_full.html shows a very decided turn in the thinking of the . The forecast depicted here shows not hitting the Bahamas in the central islands on it's path to Miami, but possibly missing the Bahamas entirely (except possibly the northern most island). Extrapolation of the new path could bring it in north of Daytona and given the curve shown, extrapolation of that could mean missing Florida. What do you suppose they are seeing to cause this rather drastic forecast path change back to the north? Is the ridge being weakened by a combination of Gaston, a wannabe depression to it's east and an ULL sort of in-between the two? Or, as LI_Phil has stated, this is part of a stair-step and the track will shift back west soon? Your thoughts...any pro's out there that could comment would also be welcome. As we are now within a 5 day forecast period for the Bahamas, at least, maybe it is less speculation to ask now what gives?
Additionally, the UKMET http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_06.gif has moved north and the extension to it doesn't bode well for most of Florida, but the new track is well north and east of even that.... Did we miss something while we slept last night?
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
Edited by Ricreig (Sun Aug 29 2004 08:13 AM)
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HCW
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
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What gives ? The discussions since last night say that forecast track has not changed. Where do they get this North Shift ?
I can't wait for recon to get into this system this evening and tell us what's going on.
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Over 4,000 members and now on a new server
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LadyStorm
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 154
Loc: United States
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Very interesting senario. It could put it on a path similar to 1999 Floyd. I remember being evacuated, but I never left that year, just boarded up. Floyd was supposed to be a direct hit, but instead went to NC.
MaryAnn
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"The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of
thinking we were at when we created them"
..........Albert Einstein
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HCW
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
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I haven't posted this link here before but here is a free level 3 radar program with radar smoothing. Take a look at the Gaston . Very impressive as it comes on shore . I apologize if this has already been posted on this board
http://www.gibsonridgesoftware.com/grw88level3/
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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I don't think the models will get their act completely together until around September 2, for various reasons. The data they contain right now includes the effects of GASTON as of right now. with that storm out of the picture, the models are going to process every thing differently. Also of course, in the mean time, it will possibly be a 48 hour forecast for someone. The boy scout motto is still the best to abide by. Prepare as though you were expecting a direct hit on your 1969 house trailer that you forgot to tie down.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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Ricreig
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
What gives ? The discussions since last night say that forecast track has not changed. Where do they get this North Shift ?
I was hoping you could tell me  I am on the e-mail list for storm bulletins and I didn't see anything mentioning this. I did a refresh on the site a couple of times about 7am and about 7:30-7:45, another refresh gave me the URL depicting the changes in the track. So far, I've seen no discussion anywhere mentioning this. I checked the models....same: They changed since the last I looked an hour or two ago. Something is afoot, but I'm not sure recon will help much as it is 'current status' info on the storm itself more than a predicition device in itself. Last night, there was a front approaching Birmingham Ala, moving E-SE....sould this be, coupled with the other Tropical stuff like Gaston, causing a weakness in the ridge that is 'seeing' and reacting to? I hope so because it could mean fish food rather than disaster for much of Florida already reeling from and could even spare the US EC who have also had their fill of tropical activity. There is still time for the ridge to 'fix' itself and push back west across Florida, but there is now hope is imore Floyd-like with a chance to miss the US entirely. Let's pray for this scenereo because I don't want, nor wish, a Cat 1V-V storm on *anyone*!
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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Kevin
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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Did you happen to read any of the posts on S2K last night? One of the mets who posts there said that has a lot of internal guidance...apparently that (internal) guidance showed a consensus track towards the Carolinas. I have a MAJOR beef with the way Jarvinen handled the discussions if the internal models were indeed showing a curve towards the north during the 4-5 day range. He offered NO synoptic reasoning whatsoever to justify a more nw track at the end of the period. Therefore I'm really not buying the track at this time.
To boot, the UKMET, , and all show a South Florida landfall. At some point, all of these models have shown some type of success in forecasting hurricane paths.
Time to refute 4-5 day position even more...Frances is clearly moving westerly this morning. If this does indeed cross the 20N-60W Hebert Box, then the threat to Florida is probably greatly increased. Ironically enough, 's forecast track shows narrowly missing this box. I'm thinking that this poses more of a threat to the Leewards than expected, but they should still escape the full effects.
Longer range, just how much Florida is threatened/possibly mauled will depend greatly on where the next amplification is. By late next week, we should definitely see a trough in the midwest region. How strong the high is along with ' location would determine exactly where landfall would occur. I can see the storm curving NW at some point, possibly cutting through a decent part of the state after making landfall. It could possibly reach the Gulf, but I don't see a threat to the northern Gulf at this time. I could be wrong though.
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troy2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
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Glad to see the site back up...
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HCW
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
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Quote:
Glad to see the site back up...
You can say that again
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Over 4,000 members and now on a new server
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
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GRFLA
Unregistered
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It should be an interesting week ahead. Models are somewhat divergent, especially with the taking the storm on a hard NW turn away from Florida. Others have it going through South or Central Florida. Does anyone know the reliability of the , will this be a trend???
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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The has some internal guidance, but not an awful lot. Most of what they have (besides the BAM series, the A98E, the LBAR, etc) are either derived model-consensus models (such as the GUNA and GUNS consensus, both of which take four models - the , UKMet, , and one other) or items like the Superensemble, which is similar to a model consensus but differs in some ways. They also get the output, which I don't recall is publicly available. But, they do reference most of what they use from time to time in discussions.
It is worth noting, however, that the Superensemble has been hinting at a slight turn to the NW towards the end of the period lately and that the official track has been following that model fairly well with this storm. The model consensuses like the GUNA/GUNS work such that the left-most and right-most tracks get averaged out into a track that appears to suggest a turn to the NW. It's not the ideal method to obtaining a track, using an average, but it tends to perform better than any of its member models.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Rabbit
Weather Master
Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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Looks like Claudette did last year on satellite image and that we may have another post-analysis upgrade to a hurricane like with Claudette in the Caribbean last year, as well as Erika
Gaston
Frances appears to be feeling the affects of southerly shear, which may keep it from developing further for a few days; the eyewall is starting to look a bit ragged compared to hours ago
Frances
98L could be a TD later today, as convection has again fired up around the center
anyone else's thoughts on this one?
98L
note the LLC at the northern part of the convection
probably will be a TD at 5pm, likely (if ever a TS) no more than 40-50 mph
also, here are some forecasts:
AVN predicting that will likely head towards the Keys in about 6 days, and that there will be a TS at about 30W at that time
GFDL is forecasting to brush the northern Antilles in about 48 hours and be about 250 miles east of Cape Canaveral in about 5 days moving NNW
UKMET is forecasting to hit the Keys in about 5 days and move up the west coast of Florida after that
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