RevRandy
Registered User
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Posts: 2
Loc: Ladson, SC
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Yes, glad the site is back up. Figured I would re-register as I was about three years ago. Been following the exceptional detail and dedication of you all for about five years.
Just rode out Gaston. A bit more intense than what folks expected. Right now, there are approximately 150,000 without power. Bridges are just beginning to open back up. Hopefully this will get people to be prepared for the upcoming week. I just remember the path of a certain storm in 1989.
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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98L is most likely going to strenghten, just like Gaston only more because it is located further away from the coast, it has good outflow in just about all sectors of the storm. It could very well become the next tropical depression or storm by 5 P.M. is facing some southerly shear as indicated by the tattered north side of the storm, as rabbit said in a pervious post. Gaston is providing much needed rain in South Carolina and parts of North Carolina, it should weaken greatly when it goes further inland. Wind gusts where up to 80 mph in some places, it was a pretty strong tropical storm.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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HanKFranK
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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i've been seeing that rightward motion has added to the terminal track every other advisory. my interpretation is that there will be another stair-step in the track like the one just completed. models vary on the profile/orientation of the western extent of the ridge, and some run to run variability exists on whether there will be enough for the storm to drive headlong into florida or slant nw and hit somewhere in the carolinas. also seeing upper weakness/trough to the east, and potential northern gulf activity that eta has been showing for the last couple of days.
i'm not sticking a pin anywhere until the tue-wed timeframe, until the globals better resolve the western extent of the ridge. note that is solidly positive for the first time this month, and typhoon chaba made a late left break before curving up into japan.. this in my mind will teleconnect to a storm with a stair-step around the bahamas. also note that chaba is significantly weaker as it nears japan. don't think that quite the same dynamics will exist as in the westpac, but maybe will be a cat 3 instead of a 4.
gaston is onshore. that's one of the most well-defined tropical storms i've seen. apparently wsr-88d velocity data didn't show any hurricane strength winds at the surface, but i'm betting post-analysis will indicate a small area along the coast in bulls bay.. also the unofficial reports of 988/985mb pressures in the area may play into a future upgrade of gaston.
should have TD 8 later today with 98L. convection sputtered overnight but is a solid, halfmoon-type today. the system appears to be slowly strengthening and beginning a right turn. should pass around 50-80 miles east of hatteras monday and come close to nantucket on late tuesday. have a hunch this will be tropical storm hermine.
disorganized thunderstorm activity in the gulf has little in the way of vorticity working in the area, but a slight to moderate chance of low pressure forming in the area (several models indicate this).
wave coming off africa and the turning near 30w are the front runners for the next named storm behind 98L. developing a system in the area... unclear if they'll merge or act independent of one another. the trailer system appears to have a rudimentary mid-level circulation to it, and an impressive if not overwhelming convective signature, so quite likely that another tropical cyclone will be forming in the eastern atlantic as we approach labor day.
since the early recurvature option went out the window, has been more or less mirroring the track. there are days to go, but the alarm is growing.
HF 1732z29august
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scottsvb1
Unregistered
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frances should weaken some over the next couple days but not much, but recon might still find this a cat 4 when it gets in there. There is a mess in the path of , I would on suspect that this will keep her in the cat 2-3 range till the shear lessens by mid week. Then could become a cat 4 again. Speculation cause landfall if any wont be till friday at the earliest. Will give update on the 3 and 5 day forcasts on monday.
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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TD8 now exists; expect a special advisory around 2pm
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
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Posts: 489
Loc:
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I wonder if there's any merit in comparing the tracks of , which closely followed that of Bonnie, to Gaston and . I know there's a much greater distance between them, but sometimes patterns get estabished that more than one storm follows.
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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cat
Registered User
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Posts: 2
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Hi, this is my first time posting. I live in the midwest I have followed your site for a couple years. I usually just lurk, but I do have a question maybe someone could answer. My sister is in Englewood, FL and after she mentioned a new (or newest?) model that had accutately predicted it's track, but had not been generally used or mentioned? Is there another model out there that is not normally used in the tracking maps that may be new? Thanks for your site and all the expertise.
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
Loc:
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cat -- well, it's not my site, so credit should go to the pods and admins of the site for the job they do!
The has some model data that is proprietary and there were models calling for to make landfall where it did, but that was 3 days prior to the storm making landfall. They oscillated back and forth until near the time it actually did make landfall, as the potential error for just a slight jog to the east or west was huge. Some other places (I think Accuweather being one) have their own proprietary models, but the validity of those is questionable at best until you can actually see for yourself what they are doing.
Unfortunately, by nature, those models are proprietary. The ones that the has, they pay good money to get and don't want the information freely available. That's why you won't see Superensemble forecasts anywhere but a brief mention from the -- gets good money from the govt. to keep it under wraps. Similarly in the commercial sector, Accuweather makes good money off of their products to hundreds of local broadcast stations across the nation. Thus, in either example, it's unlikely you'll see those products freely available for some time to come, making official verification difficult.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Well, it does...but also doesn't. put out a special tropical disturbance statement saying that the system is getting better organized and if the trend continues, advisories will be initiated later today. Unless something drastic happens between now and 5p, it probably is TD 8.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Rabbit-logout
Unregistered
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if there a chance it will not be upgraded, why are they calling it 08 noname?
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Storm Cooper
User
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Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
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SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 29 2004
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT
360 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA CONTINUES TO
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES WILL
BE INITIATED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING
NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH.
FORECASTER PASCH
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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cat
Registered User
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Posts: 2
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Many thanks Clark. I appreciate the info. I also meant for my appreciation of the site to cover all who make it possible. Again, my thanks to the pods and the admins and to all who participate. My daughter-in-law suggested I could go back to school in the pursuit of some of my hobbies, but as I told her I am learning all the time right from my computer. Never to old to learn,,,,,,,,, love it.
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James88
Weather Master
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Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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So this system could very well become the 7th named storm to form this August. That would put us level with 1995.
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mikeG
Unregistered
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URNT11 KNHC 291840
97779 18404 10175 58700 56100 01016 56//2 /4588
RMK AF861 0106A OB 04
what kind of winds does everyone think they will find?
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rickonboat
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 90
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appears to be a slight increase in convection in the western central GOM. Wonder what the models think.
Am I seeing a wobble, or is starting a shift due westward?....
Suprised she has diminished, but I still lay credence to the Miami hit, and then slip into the GOM>
In two more days, we might have two more named systems. One off of North Carolina, and the other in the GOM....
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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Last 90 minutes of IR loops... practically due west... right now I would say "Lady" is tracking on the bottom/southern end of the projected forecast track.... how this affects things down the road remains to be seen.... but I would be not surprised to see the track shift slighty back to the LEFT.. regardless, models will change as they are updated with new information .... expect some swings to the left and right over time....
Edited by Frank P (Sun Aug 29 2004 07:53 PM)
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HCW
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
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Question for ya'll
Would TD#8 pump the ridge and cause to go more west ?
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jlauderdal
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 97
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FLorida
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Quote:
 7:45PM Update
Hurricane Warnings are now up for the South Carolina coast as Recon has now found 65MPH winds in Tropical Storm Gaston, and is expected now to strengthen into a hurricane before landfall sometime late Sunday.
Original Update
Two Storms, TD#7 has strengthened into Gaston, still meandering off the South Carolina coast, and recon found stronger than anticipated winds, so Hurricane Watches have been put up for the South Carolina coastiline.
Hurricane is now a Category 4 Hurricane still moving westward, the National Hurricane Center's forecast track puts it into the Bahamas mid week, so folks along the southeastern Coastline and Bahamas will need to pay attention to the system.
More to come later.
Event RelatedLinks
Frances Models
Gaston Models
All model "Spaghetti" for from hurricanealley
All model "Spaghetti" for Gaston from hurricanealley
General Links
Current Aircraft Recon Info
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Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.
Follow worldwide SST evolution here:
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Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, , , JMA, , UKMET
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Multi-model plots from WREL
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.
im pleased to annouce the jlauderdal webcam will be back in business IF fll is forecast to get hurricane force winds.
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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I use it for so many things I'm dead in the water without it. Even when I don't post or read I use it a lot.
A lot going on in the Atlantic..situation is so fluid.
Think will stair step a lot and more worried about when the high does build in strong as forecasted than what it does at 2 and 6.
Interesting set up. Nice to see everyone.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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redbird
Unregistered
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Lois since you are quite in the know, what are your thoughts as to where this will landfall?
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