Maitalnd, FL
Unregistered
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It looks to me that in the last few frames is going more of a wnw track or so. Is the sun playing tricks on me, or is that whats happening? 
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Maitland, FL
Unregistered
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I agree with you redbird, I think it will be in our area too. God forbid it, but it looks like thats what it might do. 
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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 337
Loc:
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Hurricanes are still unpredicatable and at the end of all the model runs and forecasts, these storms usually have a surprise or two in store for us.
I will be looking at the High pressure ridge to the North of Francis as the main player in where she will go.
This has been a strange season so far. I'm with all of you, just watching and trying to figure out how it will impact me.
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Robert
Weather Analyst
Reged:
Posts: 364
Loc: Southeast, FL
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Come on floridians remeber the east coast of florida does not get hit by major huricanes except once every 30-40 years its only been 12 since Andrew thats another 18-28 years before we get hit by another major hurricane.
Well I dont no what will do becuse my expirience tells me no florida hit, and maybe carolina's.
but were also supposed to be in a diferrent 20 year pattern so its back to school for me. I like to think this storm does an isabel becuse its very similar but this storm is 12 degrees west of isabel in every aspect that it mimics. I am Relieved that the High alltidude jet is out there getting some real data for the models so tommorow i will start to weigh the models a bit more seariously.
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Redbird
Unregistered
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It is real scary to know that next weekend, everything I own and even possibly my family could be fatally injured.................
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melissa1211
Unregistered
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Do you think south florida is in the clear with the new forecast models?
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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My take on :
1- Looks like a close call with Hebert's box. Remember, almost every major hurricane to go through that box ends up hitting S. FL. as a major.
2- Last eye of a major hurricane here in Palm Beach County was in 1949, 55 years ago. This region should get a major hurricane every 10 yrs, that is 5 1/2 times over due.
3- Stores already doing a brisk business around here. One local Home Depot that had 300 generators this morning, now has only 75 left. I spent the day shopping myself.
4-Another huge problem that no one is mentioning about this storm is the possible flooding potential with such a slow mover. Remember, this storm is moving much slower than Andrew or .
5- My home weather station is up and running. I will provide a link if heads my way. The anemometer is rated to 175 mph, but not my roof. Hope I don't have to find that out.
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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Redbird
Unregistered
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What is Hebert's box?
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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Redbird, you sound new to this message board and I noticed you are not registered. Welcome. Now, it has been my experience in the last 3 or 4 years that every one who is posting to this board is interested in where the hurricanes will go. But, you have to realize that except for a few experts sprinkeled in here, a lot of this talk is speculation and we do not know anything for sure except the official forecast by , Just get your self prepared and don't allow yourself to get emotionally upset over every twist and turn that the models forecast. The Floyd cane had all of Florida, the experts and even Disney World convinced that it was coming to a place in Central Florida. But, it stayed off shore. We will truly know much more by Wednesday as the forecasts get more accurate and less guesswork is going on.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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Check this out on Hebert's boxes.
http://www.hurricanecity.com/hebertbox.htm
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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Cocoa Beach
Unregistered
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Palm Beach area is kinda my gut feeling right now. I don't think I buy into the S. Fl scenario.
I told my rommies to get ready, but there not buying it.
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BillD
User
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Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
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It is just too early to be making any predictions about landfall (or to worry about it either). Maybe by Wednesday we'll have a better idea.
Looks to me to have wobbled a little south of west in this last frame, but over the last couple of hours is heading west for sure.
Bill
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Hurric
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 116
Loc: Port St. Lucie, Fl
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For those in the east central Florida area, Melbourne NWS discussion this afternoon has an interesting long range portion.
THU-SUN...FORECAST IS VERY HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON TRACK AND SPEED OF
VERY POWERFUL HURRICANE . LATEST OFFICIAL TRACK CONTINUES TO
BRING ACROSS THE BAHAMAS THEN ACROSS CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN FL
LABOR DAY WEEKEND. BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW IN THIS EXACT
FORECAST. KEEP IN MIND THE AVG TRACK ERROR FOR DAY 5 IS 325 NAUTICAL
MILES. NONETHELESS...AS EXPECTED HAS BENT MORE TO THE WEST
TODAY DUE TO UPPER RIDGE BUILDING NORTH OF IT. THIS RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO STEER W/NW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THEN
POSSIBLY WEAKEN WHICH WOULD ALLOW A MORE N/NW MOTION. DEPENDING ON
HOW FAST THE UPPER RIDGING ERODES...IT COULD TURN TO OUR
EAST OR BRING IT DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO BREVARD COUNTY AS THE 12Z
UKMET AND DO. FOR NOW...WILL FOLLOW OFFICAL FORECAST WHICH
BRINGS ONSHORE NEAR JUPITER INLET. PERSONS IN EAST CENTRAL
FL SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DANGEROUS HURRICANE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
Hurric
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Redbird
Unregistered
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One model does seem to show a sebastian inlet landfall and pass right through Brevard and into Orlando.
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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I must admit normally I am not an edgy person, but this one has me a little concerned, considering I have a lot of my roof missing.. LOL. So if people seem a little jittery in Central Florida, cut them a little slack. Most havent even had roofers provide them with an estimate nor have they had their adjusters even show up..
Having experienced Andrew (lived on Old Cutler and 136) and now , I must say I am hoping for the infamous "Disney Hurricane Reflector Shield or the Kennedy Space Center Hurricane Protection System" that everyone talks about.. LOL..
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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BY THE WAY THERE IS A NEW TOPIC POSTED
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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BillD
User
Reged:
Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
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Yes, and a dozen other models show everything from turning left over Cuba, to Key West to recurving and never hitting land. Having been through several major hurricanes (including Andrew and Donna) I know how it feels. It is not easy to not worry about anything stronger than a thunderstorm. But it is too early to even guess where this storm is going to go.
The data gathered from the high altitude dropsondes will help the models out. By later tomorrow we should have a more accurate picture, but it won't be until the middle of the week that the can make a reasonable prediction on landfall.
And having been through the Floyd situation, we (including the ) were sure we were going to get hit, it was heading right for us, and it made a right hand turn just before landfall. Anything is possible with these storms. The bottom line is be prepared, and hope for the best.
Bill
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Jeanine
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 36
Loc: Hollywood, FL
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Thanks for posting the link on Herbert's box. I've been here for over 7 years and do not ever remember hearing that term. Mostly lurking.
Jeanine 
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danielw
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Yeah, thanks! I needed a brain refresher on the Hebert boxes too.
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Redbird
Unregistered
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Okay probably right on this one. I am not sure what Floyd did........was not down here then. Thnx for your patience on this.
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