alan
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 95
Loc: Apopka, FL
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Wherever this hits, I think it is going to be a close call to Florida, very similar to what happened with Floyd.
For those of us who lived in Orlando during that time, many of us expected Floyd to come close to Orlando. It all depended on when the storm turned. Thankfully, it turned a couple hundred miles off shore. This could do the same thing, or it could come in closer. I feel we won't know until the last minute.
One thing, I have been impressed with the modeling and the 's forecasts this year. They've nailed just about every storm we've had this year, even being in the general area five days out. After all, every storm has done just about what the storm centers have done.
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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I checked my DeLorme Atlas and FL i s around 376nm from Key West to the GA line. 85nm on either side of the eye would cover most of the state with a Melbourne area hit.
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Ricreig
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
Wherever this hits, I think it is going to be a close call to Florida, very similar to what happened with Floyd.
For those of us who lived in Orlando during that time, many of us expected Floyd to come close to Orlando. It all depended on when the storm turned. Thankfully, it turned a couple hundred miles off shore. This could do the same thing, or it could come in closer. I feel we won't know until the last minute.
One thing, I have been impressed with the modeling and the 's forecasts this year. They've nailed just about every storm we've had this year, even being in the general area five days out. After all, every storm has done just about what the storm centers have done.
Yup, and that is precicely why I and a lot of others here in Central Florida are getting antsy...the *has* been doing a credible job so far this year, including . My only criticism even with that storm was the 'envelope of error' wasn't stressed enough. That envelope basically did allow the eye to go near Orlando, but the delays in getting the word out to the public about the *actual* path meant that a lot of people went TOWARDs harms way and none of the trailer parks were notified of even voluntary evacuations with a still Cat II storm coming overhead within a couple of hours. If any were warned, I haven't heard about it. I pray we will get more warning this time, if such a thing is possible. Me and the cat will make our decision at least 24 hours in advance if there is any reasonable chance our area will experience hurricane force (or worse) winds.
At least, if the storm does pass to our East, the wind will be form the opposite direction, and all of the debris from the destroyed trailers in my park will be blown back to where it came from.
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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Floridacane
Weather Guru
Reged: Sat
Posts: 110
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
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Hey Daniel, I live In Palm Bay, which is the neighboring city to Melbourne to the South. Melbourne is approx. 180 miles to the south of Jacksonville and 180 miles to the North of Miami. So you are right about the swath of the storm and its effects.
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What's brewin' everyone?
Lori
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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A little more pondering. An 85nm circle centered on Downtown Melbourne, covers North to the northern end of Kennedy Space Ctr and South to Hollywood.
I don't know if the eye diameter should be figured into that but it gives you an idea of the swath of Hurricane Force winds at this point in time. Pretty large.
** This is purely hypothetical and does not reflect Any of 's postions!
Edited by danielw (Sun Aug 29 2004 09:40 PM)
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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How strong of winds can the Kennedy space center withstand? I think by the blueprint maybe allow it to withstand a strong CAT 3 nothing more, it's very aerodynamic, they really accounted for the pressure gradient that exists in hurricane force winds. I would hate to see such a modern marvel become a pile of rubble.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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ShaggyDude
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 112
Loc: Cocoa Beach, Florida
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If it hit melbourne at 85 nm, it would at least go up to Daytona, well past the Space Center...
Of course, all speculation.
Edited by ShaggyDude (Sun Aug 29 2004 09:35 PM)
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ConcernedinMiami
Unregistered
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Unfortunately, I happen to strongly agree with Dr. Gray's analysis with respect to the initial guesstimation of ' strike on South Florida. As he stated in his discussion, many of the models rely on historical patterns of storms previously taking a similar track. You may recall both Floyd, David, Hugo, and several others veered north just miles off the Bahamian Islands. Unfortunately, those trofs will not come to fruision on this occassion, and therefore, I cannot rely greatly on their anticipitation of a northwestern movement outside 5 days. The "true" history is causing the models to act with a rather false return. Any thoughts on agreements or disagreement? Interested for feedback -- want to shutter up early and not wait til the last minute -- MIAMI
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Redbird
Unregistered
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Gee are we now saying Melbourne is where we think it most likely to make landfall?
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Lake Toho
Unregistered
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The forecast isnt from Dr Grey its from Gary Gray. Gary is a meteorologist, but not THE Dr who forecasts the number of hurricanes every year.
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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This was emailed to me from a friend around 6 pm.
Looking at the latest satellite images It looks like Hurricane is beginning to undergo a bit of SW shearing. Also some eyewall restructuring still seems to be occurring, so she remains a CAT 4 cyclone with maybe some slight weakening. SW shear should increase as reaches 60 deg. west longitude through approximately 70 deg. west longitude and this may inhibit strengthening to a CAT 5 in the middle term.
The powerful high pressure ridge to it's north continues to strengthen and build west, the cause of ' westerly turn earlier today. Earlier I took the liberty of looking at more modeling and what I see is troublesome. I'm seeing a trend of more models coming into agreement with a continued lower latitude westward track for . If this verifies then any low pressure weakness that "may" be left behind by Hurricane Gaston (yes it was a hurricane when it came ashore in S.C.) and future T.S. Hermine could not pull NW-N east of Florida and/or the T & K and Bahama Islands.
But what does a lower latitude more westward track mean if it were to occur? The good news would be a close brush with Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and Cuba. This close brush would continue to inhibit growth to a CAT 5 cyclone, even knock her back to a CAT 3. Also like with CAT 4 Hurricane , speed divergence could pull ' eye wall onshore into one of the Great Antilles further disrupting the cyclone. A third option, one of bad news that just makes me shudder! A nightmarish CAT 4 strike to deep South Florida and a WNW-NW movement across the peninsula exiting into the Gulf Of Mexico north of Charlotte Harbor.
Once again though I add this disclaimer. As I've officially retired from weather forecasting, confidence in my forecast of tropical cyclone path and intensity is low, as I no longer pay for real time raw weather forecasting products.
Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella,
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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Ricreig
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
Hey Daniel, I live In Palm Bay, which is the neighboring city to Melbourne to the South. Melbourne is approx. 180 miles to the south of Jacksonville and 180 miles to the North of Miami. So you are right about the swath of the storm and its effects.
I know the said:
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES... 140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...204 KM.
but I'm wondering, 85 miles from the center? That is more than half of the storm if the TS force winds are only 125 mi. I betcha there is a typo in that advisory and it is 85 across or about 40 from the center. I seem to have seen a very recent statement that said "35" mise from center. Either way, it is a big storm and most of Florida would feel TS or better winds and inland cities would get hurricane force winds as far away as Orlando, certainly Jax, Kissimmee and many communities like Daytona would see potentially majory storm force winds.
On the FLoyd scenereo, dont forget it went iinland in NC and caused a lot of big-time damage....let's hope goes even further East than Floyd did...
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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I think it will also stay south because of another reason that Gary Gray pointed out. has very good outflow and if it does come close enough to the ridge it will actually build it, in turn causing it to head more westward and strike Florida. I wouldn't get worried yet, but I would start preparing. This slow mover will make people very worried. Models are based on past storms but are also dynamical, some rely more on previous storms then others thats why their forecasts are sometimes very divergent.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
Edited by Jason234 (Sun Aug 29 2004 09:48 PM)
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Ricreig
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
I think it will also stay south because of another reason that Dr. Gray pointed out. has very good outflow and if it does come close enough to the ridge it will actually build it, in turn causing it to head more westward and strike Florida. I wouldn't get worried yet, but I would start preparing. This slow mover will make people very worried. Models are based on past storms but are also dynamical, some rely more on previous storms then others thats why their forecasts are sometimes very divergent.
Looking at http://www.midatlanticwx.com/modelmap.htm
they aren't all that divergant anymore. There seems to be a consencus of model opinion that SE Florida is in for a rough time. As it is still headed due West, it seems more likely the UKMET and and and others are really close even out past 5 days.
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Going over the forecast positions from advisories 19 and 20. I noticed from 03/1200Z to 03/1800Z has the storm being stationary at 25.5N/ 76.5W. Any thoughts on this?
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Floridacane
Weather Guru
Reged: Sat
Posts: 110
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
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MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC
GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 29.08.2004
HURRICANE ANALYSED POSITION : 18.7N 54.5W
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 29.08.2004 18.7N 54.5W MODERATE
00UTC 30.08.2004 19.6N 56.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.08.2004 20.3N 59.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.08.2004 21.0N 61.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 31.08.2004 21.9N 64.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.09.2004 22.7N 68.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 01.09.2004 23.2N 70.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 02.09.2004 23.8N 73.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 02.09.2004 24.6N 75.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 03.09.2004 25.6N 77.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 03.09.2004 26.5N 79.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 04.09.2004 27.9N 80.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 04.09.2004 29.5N 81.8W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
Found this on the UK Met site. Not sure if it's been posted already though. If it has, accept my apologies.
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What's brewin' everyone?
Lori
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Floridacane
Weather Guru
Reged: Sat
Posts: 110
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
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Quote:
How strong of winds can the Kennedy space center withstand? I think by the blueprint maybe allow it to withstand a strong CAT 3 nothing more, it's very aerodynamic, they really accounted for the pressure gradient that exists in hurricane force winds. I would hate to see such a modern marvel become a pile of rubble.
I found this for ya...
The table below indicates to what wind speed in miles per hour facilities were originally designed.
O&C LCC VAB Pads OPF MILA RPSF PHSF SSPF NSLD
Sustained 114 114 114 114 105 104 105 110 110 110
Gust 125 125 125 125 105 125 126 132 132 132
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What's brewin' everyone?
Lori
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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I certainly don't like that model. It has at 26.5, 79.1 on Friday morning. I live at 26.5, 80.1. That is 60 miles due east of me.
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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Floridacane
Weather Guru
Reged: Sat
Posts: 110
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
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Neither do I. I just now looked up my coordinates at http://www.census.gov/cgi-bin/gazetteer-tbl and it says that I am at
28.01N 80.67W
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What's brewin' everyone?
Lori
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h2ocean
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 91
Loc: South Merritt Island, FL
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Interesting about the buildings at , I remember an article in the local paper saying most of the buildings were not that strong. I took a tour a few years ago and saw the VAB and thought they said that was the strongest and could take 140 but your numbers are very different. Most of those buildings were built many years ago. My house was built 2 years ago and is to withstand 130 mph...I added panels that are rated at cat 5 for all windows/doors/garage so I figure that should add some.
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Merritt Island, FL Home Weather Station
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