Ricreig
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Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
I am feeling a lot better.... I have to belive that we will be spared a second on slought of Hurricanes this year. The storm can stay out to sea ..... I am hopeing that it was enough to scare the willies out of all of us and just skirt us here in Florida The radios and tv's are going bonkers... is all you hear. If people didn't get the message with not sure they ever will. We get our hurricane stuff together the first of June and disban it the end of October. Keep listening and paying attention should it come our way ... in several hours like 144 hours or so
I reflect your sentiments exactly, but don't forget that this beast is still SOUTH of us and projections are just that, projections. Until it passes by, it can still be very much a part of our lives. But, for now, there is that ray of hope, I agree. For those to our north, the ray is still quite cloudy though.
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc:
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Don't feel too good just yet. There is a large margin of error on a 5 day forecast track sometimes.
However, the thing that I always keep in mind is that historicly at least, the majority of storms taking the Francis path do curve to the North. Andrew being the most memorable exception. So, you have to watch and prepare.
I fear GOM storms that cross the state like much more than Atlantic storms.
But, I keep an eye on them just the same.
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Ricreig
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
Don't feel too good just yet. There is a large margin of error on a 5 day forecast track sometimes.
However, the thing that I always keep in mind is that historicly at least, the majority of storms taking the Francis path do curve to the North. Andrew being the most memorable exception. So, you have to watch and prepare.
I fear GOM storms that cross the state like much more than Atlantic storms.
But, I keep an eye on them just the same.
I agree. While it is by no means determined that will NOT cross the state similarly to , and that it is coming from the other side, you should remember that when it made it across the state (Charley), it was still a hurricane, and still CAT II when it hit Orlando a hundred or so miles away from landfall. If were to come in as originally stated by the MLB wx office, near Jupiter inlet, it would likely exit near your fine town of Tampa, and probably would get your attention in a most negative way. I'm glad you're keeping watch still. It is too early for any of us to be too relieved.
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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Tom-OrmondBch
Unregistered
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Have been reading all your posts. I am a bit more encouraged also, but still plan on starting to board up east and north sides of house. Maybe fruitless effort but I don't want to do it at last minute. Too many memories of Floyd and Irene in 1999. We had lots of damage from those "misses" here! And they just took all the debris off my street!
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Frances looks like it's out of the shear today, it might do some significant strenghtening. Hermine better turn out to sea, she looks more organised then ever, are they doing any more recon flights on her? Floridians are never out of the woods unless the storm is a fish spinner, hurricane might hit you but then it could very well hit another state, or it might just landfall in two states. The odds of it hitting Florida right now are high 51 to 49 but that 49 could become Florida.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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Ricreig
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
Have been reading all your posts. I am a bit more encouraged also, but still plan on starting to board up east and north sides of house. Maybe fruitless effort but I don't want to do it at last minute. Too many memories of Floyd and Irene in 1999. We had lots of damage from those "misses" here! And they just took all the debris off my street!
I just got the latest E-Mail from which says in part:
AT 8 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.1 WEST OR ABOUT 265
MILES... 425 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 125 MILES...205 KM.
Given the size of , you are probably making a wise decision to continue preparations. Many of the models that show a 'miss', still show it within range to do damage, especially to coastal areas. Good luck!
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Frances is going to pass very near the northern leeward islands today, I hope? Or will it hit them. 
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc:
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How much faith are people putting in the track...looks to me like it could be similar one to Gaston.??
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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Ricreig
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
Frances is going to pass very near the northern leeward islands today, I hope? Or will it hit them.
I hope it misses them too, but it seems obvious that barring major changes, they darned sure will be *affected* by . WV loop shows outflow cirrus clouds from the approximate center of the leading edge only hours away from the Northern Leeward islands. 
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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Frances seems to be behaving according to plan as I read the discussion today. Sattelite bears out a due west, perhaps slightly south of due west track at this time, but according to that is predicted for up to 72 hrs. What I note in that is this behavior is left of the tracks predicted two -three days ago.
Lets face it, the race is on between the short wave trough in the northwest and the storm.
In my observational experience there is a good rule of thumb for those of us ilocated in the southern half of the florida peninsula. and that is what is occurring as the storm approaches what I call the 25/75 junction, which it will on about Thrsday evening/ Fridaymorining: If the storm has moved that far north and is more north than west and passes north of that spot, per the , etc. then Florida is generally safe. If it passes that spot to the south and is more west or wnw then Florida is a target.
The models on Wednesday are critical in my opinion...as the synoptic data by then should be fairly firm on the race between the trough and the storm.
Something else to watch as a predictive tool could be the ULL to the storm's NW several hundred miles, visible on the WV. If that lifts out to the north, then that could signal the weakness in the ridge that it will follow...if it stays firm to the west then that could indicate the trend to the south for ...
Happy speculating.
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doug
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Ricreig
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Code:
Lets face it, the race is on between the short wave trough in the northwest and the storm.
In my observational experience there is a good rule of thumb for those of us ilocated in the southern half of the florida peninsula. and that is what is occurring as the storm approaches what I call the 25/75 junction, which it will on about Thrsday evening/ Fridaymorining: If the storm has moved that far north and is more north than west and passes north of that spot, per the , etc. then Florida is generally safe. If it passes that spot to the south and is more west or wnw then Florida is a target.
Very good observation...Both about the 25/75 and the ULL on the WV. I think the 2 TS's have reshaped the tropical ridge somewhat on the west end and that may be why we are seeing the forecasts shifting north. OTOH, as you noted, the current track is still due WEST so someone needs to tell to look north 
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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I was reading on another site that the forward speed of has picked up putting it about 6 hours ahead of forecast schedule. I was wondering if this is true or just hype from another less informed site?
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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Frances is picking up speed; I would think the 11AM update can shift the forecast path a bit to the left ..it's a seesaw game for now; But I will wait until wednesday to asess and implement pre-Plan B :?:
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________2024 Forecast: 28/14/8________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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Rabbit
Weather Master
Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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AVN 144 hours
CMC 132 hours
GFDL 120 hours --very similar to Floyd
NOGAPS 144 hours
UKMET 120 hours
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ShaggyDude
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 112
Loc: Cocoa Beach, Florida
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Thanks Rabbit - nice model snapshots, though very ominous for Florida, hit or not.
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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Interesting that the Canadian Model has crossing southern Florida.
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________2024 Forecast: 28/14/8________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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Ricreig
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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All of which show graphically why we still aren't out of the woods yet....Thanks for the URL's.
BTW, Why is the formatting of this page AFU?
Only this last page is W I D E!!
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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jth
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 275
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Not very promising. Still think it is a SC event, but those models look bad for Florida.
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melissa
Unregistered
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Do you think south florida is going to be in the clear?
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Cocoa Beach
Unregistered
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#21172 - Sat Aug 28 2004 04:24 PM
I wrote:
I bet (I love to gamble) that she will cross 58 W before 20 N
Lets hope my other gut feeling doesn't come to fruitation:
#21355 - Sun Aug 29 2004 06:29 PM
Palm Beach area is kinda my gut feeling right now. I don't think I buy into the S. Fl scenario.
Just a few more days of bluffing and Mother Nature will reveal her Aces.
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