wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Slight leftward shift at 5...with another sampling mission going on right now we should get some really good results from the evening modelling...
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Jason Kelley
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James88
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Well, is back up to 110kts, and is forecast to reach 120kts in about 72 hours, although the discussion does say that this is conservative. The satellite appearance is still not quite as impressive as a couple of days ago, but it looks formidable nevertheless.
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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NHC five day
Look at Saturday 
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Do not be surprised if that track shifts further south and west with time...
I fear this is a real headache for south FL...and POSSIBLY for those of us in the Panhandle longer term.
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Jason Kelley
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Cocoa Beach
Unregistered
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I was at the Lowes in Titusville today. I called at 1pm the truck was just arriving with 250 generators on it.
I went there at 4pm there where 25 left. The folks up here aren't playin.
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HCW
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
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Quote:
Do not be surprised if that track shifts further south and west with time...
I fear this is a real headache for south FL...and POSSIBLY for those of us in the Panhandle longer term.
How far west on the central Gulf Coast could you see this storm moving ?
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Over 4,000 members and now on a new server
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Too early to speculate, but I wouldn't think any further west than Mobile...but that is definately a WAG, not based on hard data.
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Jason Kelley
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SoonerShawn
Unregistered
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I know that here in Texas we will be spared of any effects from but I wanted to get your input on something maybe forming in the central or western gulf in a few days. Do you think it is realistic?
ShawnS
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SkeetoBite
Master of Maps
Reged: Sun
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Oh sure… let’s move to Florida. The summers are a little hot, but the winters are fantastic! Let’s pick the center of the state so we don’t get hit by the brunt of any hurricanes…
Been here about 45 days (lurking at this site since February). We were made nervous by Bonnie. Took a slight slapping from (the eye passed about 20 miles east of here) and now looks like she wants to tangle. If comes through Polk County, I’ll need to really reconsider my geographic preferences for permanent residence! 
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Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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I am seeing forecaster invoking the "A" name. Please, not that. This is going to be a very stressful week. Best to prepare the sooner the better.
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AphCane04
Unregistered
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Quote:
The last bit I'll mention about this storm...
The Superensemble tracks are beginning to be very consistent from run to run. According to the head guy, when that happens...watch out.
It's converging on the Miami area.
Just something to watch.
That's just afraid of the football game Monday night. They hope that if they tweak their model to show a Miami hit, the game will definitely be postponed until a later date. hahaha in all seriousness, I am still finding it hard to bite on a SE FL landfall. I just don't think the ridge is going to be strong enough. I keep hearing people at work draw comparisons to Andrew, but let's face it, the ridge that drove Andrew was the mother of all ridges. This ridging over seems rather pedestrian, and probably won't build far enough west for a direct SE FL hit. Just my thought.
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Are you predicting the ridge to strenghten? Why, because of the dry subsiding air that is being pushed over the ridge from , or another reason.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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Bloodstar
Unregistered
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Quote:
Hermine looks like it could be on the coast of Rhode Island or Massachussetts by 8pm tonight
Also, Gaston could be back over water by 11pm, and if that happens, it will likely go directly to TS because the site has the intensity at 45 mph and 998 mb on the satellite page
wind and satellite data
I am still thinking that will turn east very close to the Florida east coast as a Cat III
Hey Rabbit,
just a heads up. has stopped updating Gaston at this point... the lastest report had 30 MPH sustained winds, it's still hanging together, but it's certainly not what has up there (of course if someone else wants to verify one way or another, feel free... just what I'm obserbing)
Thanks!
Mark
(still need to remember to register...)
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Redbird
Unregistered
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Or go live in California with the earthquakes.............no warning at all with those.
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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Frances officially makes it into Hebert's Box. Remember, almost every single major hurricane that went through that box ended up hitting S. FL. Almost every single one that didn't go through the box didn't hit S. FL. There are VERY FEW exceptions to this. The pattern has proven accurate for 9 out of every 10 storms that developed & hit Dade, Broward & Palm Bch. Counties.
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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Rabbit
Weather Master
Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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the utterly ironic thing is that this is the same name list as 1992
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rjp
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 12
Loc: Charleston, SC
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That Superensemble track has to be on target... I mean, any fan (like myself) knows they can't play in the rain and win! (See Louisville, Miami, etc.) Let's hope this sucker stays out to sea... or atleast stays away from Miami. Rix needs to finally beat those guys. 
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clam dog
Unregistered
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when do watches go up for se bahamas
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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1) Global models have a real tendency to underforecast ridges.
2) Large storms tend to reinforce ridges.
3) Cork in the stream...Frances won't be influenced as much by the outside synoptic forces as she will flow along with them, and modify them to some extent. Be very wary right now if you live anywhere between Hatteras and Mobile.
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Jason Kelley
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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For anyone out there who may not be familiar with Hebert's box, here's a link to some good info.
Hebert's Box
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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