Redbird
Unregistered
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Can a really large storm create a lot of its own weather conditions?
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joepub1
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
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I’ll need to really reconsider my geographic preferences for permanent residence
I'd like to tell you that you get used to it, but we have never had a month of August like this before, Every single piece of sand has been threatened in about 30 days by one storm or another. I can't recall this ever happening before. You're really in what was a pretty safe area, until this year.
18Z is a space coast hit and rides the east coast right into my backyard. Never have liked that model. 
We are almost at this point:
A) East coast of FL, across the state, into the NE GOM.
B) East coast of FL, rides just inland or just along the coast.
C) A complete recurve, misses FL, Carolina bound.
At 5PM the discussion said this:
THE BAD NEWS FOR THE BAHAMAS AND
FLORIDA PENINSULA IS THAT THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IN THE CURRENT MODEL FORECASTS THROUGH 5 DAYS THAT COULD SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKEN THIS RIDGE.
Here in JAX Frances is leading the local newscasts top stories. Option C is not being considered here. The word is getting out that it's still 5 days+ away, but get ready, could be a huge problem.
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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All storms no matter what their size create weather, I think you need to restate you question.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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Redbird
Unregistered
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JoePub
Did you post here during Isabel last year?
Redbird, you should really join -- then you could send joepub a PM. The main boards are not for posts like this. Thank you.
Edited by LI Phil (Mon Aug 30 2004 09:19 PM)
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Not create as such, but certainly modify existing conditions such that the influence of them changes. It is said that big storms "create their own weather"...not exactly accurate, but they don't respond the same as "regular" weather systems.
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Jason Kelley
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Hurric
Weather Guru
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Posts: 116
Loc: Port St. Lucie, Fl
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Jason, could you give us your thoughts on the ULL in central bahamas and its influence on the ridge and path?
Thanks
Hurric
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Redbird
Unregistered
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gee did not mean to offend.
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scottsvb1
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"Hard to see the dark side is isn't it?" Just like yoda says in star wars, its with the model runs with weather.
I waited till the new thread came out to give out my 3 and 5 day forcasts for . Pretty close to track I have this from 3 days back, maybe just a tad slower but still going on to my around 21N and 70W. I have that there in 2 days. Day 3 in se Bahamas around 22.5N and 74.5W. Day 4 25N and 78.5 W and finally Day 5 near 27.5N and 81W. Again from points each way it could be anywhere from 50miles each side on day 3 I forcast and on days 4-5 up to 100miles each side. So everyone from Key Largo N could be affected.
Why is this my forcasted position? Dynamics in the atmosphere with water vapor showings and model runs continue to support this direction. As I mentioned to Hank on here I dont see a strong trough like Floyd encounterd to pull this NNW until it gets past day 5. also notes this now. Now in near term, a general W path with WNW wobbles should continue into tomorrow with the afternoon becoming more WNW around the extreme SW side of the ridge over the Atlantic. By day 3 (Thurs) the question on where it goes will happen. This is due to the ridge placement, strength, and position of the hurricane. With a trough expected to develop over the central U.S and dive southward on days 3-4 the ridge over the atlantic might extend more W into the SE and mid Alantic states. This would cause a path more WNW (as I expect) just SE florida and up or across the state. The trough will continue slowly E into the eastern U.S. down to the lower miss valley and gulf coast by day 5 allowing more NW then N movement. This is by days 5 thru 7 as all can see in model runs. Now currently ahead of there is a upper trough in the bahamas moving w and should weaken but it will also help influence the outflow of and also helping the wnw motion. If the upper trough stays alittle stonger then forcasts and/or slows down, it could during days 2-3, turn more NW and the models will adjust to that. That is possible i should note but not favored.
So for now as posted above that is my placements and threatning the SE coast of florida by late Friday night. Storm could still by day 5 then eigther parrel the coast from WPB up to Daytona or come inland and N of Tampa later day 6, but I wont go out no more then sending it or coming close to WPB for Sat. Will post new forcast on weds. scottsvb
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Loc: Florida
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A question: just how big is this storm? Is it a compact storm like Andrew, the size of or Floyd? I'm just wondering because if it stays on the path (which is going to change slightly from day to day) it's on now, wouldn't the worst weather be on the north side of the storm as it passes through the state? Or is that a mute point at this time?
I DEFINITELY don't like the "THE BAD NEWS FOR THE BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA" part of the discussion.
People here are taking this storm extremely seriously. As they should.
Speaking of storms, we're getting a nasty one right now. I'm really hoping this cancels football practice. 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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The ULL at this point is aiding , along with a behind it, by creating ventilation for the top of the storm. I don't see anything about the ULL that should really impact the track.
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Jason Kelley
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Todd
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 30
Loc: Havelock, NC(34.89n76.92w)
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Sorry, explain ... thought it would provide some shear or disruption in the outflow when it gets closer??
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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It's pacing , so it's not getting any closer...plus it is weakening as well...
JK
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Jason Kelley
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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 337
Loc:
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I'm in Orlando.
SOS..........
I think we are in for a horrible event.
Does anyone see a scenario that turns this storm prior to Florida landfall?
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
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Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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If it slows down there is that opportunity it may parallel the East Coast of Florida and on to the Carolinas.
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________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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bobbistorm
Unregistered
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seems its following the ULL a bit as well
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RevUp
Weather Guru
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Posts: 181
Loc:
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Excellent discussion here NOT focusing on any specific points for landfall, contrary to some TV coverage in Orlando. Just rec'd a call that one station is getting viewers in a tizzy about a hit on Cape Canaveral.
Thanks for your reference to Hebert's Box - solid rule of thumb info to know.
As for models, I'm sure we all remember how the models kept trending left of 's actual track, but still within "the cone of concern."
Area around P.R. is famous for effects - remember how Andrew weakened, then strengthened again E. of Bahamas?
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South Carolina
Unregistered
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The coast of Florida is going to get hit. The only variable is how hard. The west side of could hit it, or the entire thing could.
By Wednesday/Thursday, you'll know if you need to evacuate or not. If you wait until Friday to evacuate, you are going to have to drive to Tennessee to get a motel room.
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Steve hirschb.
Unregistered
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Colleen, that's a good point and I'd liketo know if the storm will enlarge windfield wise or stay pretty much the same. If it came in on the current forecasted track (theory now) I will be near the NE eyewall (I'm at 28N/80.3W) but if it came in at Ft. Lauderdale will I be safe here. I figure TS winds extend out to 140 miles from the center, so thats about 280 miles total coverageeither side of the center (duh). But will that size increase in 4 - 5 days??? Good Question.
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
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Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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You can't expect to know the specific point for landfall even within the 3 days prior to landfall. It has to be very close, hours, of the event.  
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________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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It still appears to be a Floyd-type track, with a turn north while still offshore--the ULL is still there and is now moving faster while the upper low is moving the same speed.
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