Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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I said that this one would hit the outer banks area too, my techinque is called persitence and climatololgy one of these days your bound to be right. I use stuff like that for long range tracking hurricanes because there is no way that you can predict how things are going to shape out in the upper air features 10-11 days in advance. Raining pretty hard here had a wind gust up to 35 mph, big whoop! 
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Quote:
so the model with the biggest turn is the one with the latest data?
Not exactly...the 00Z run of the , with the dropsondes, was further west....the 00Z Eta, with the dropsondes, was much further s and west. The 06Z (with the newsst data) is further west and south than the 00Z run. The 06Z Eta (again, with the newest data) trended back north a bit, but is still a far left track. This mornings Eta (which is only in to 54hrs as I write this, and contains last nights sondes,which are now 12 hrs old) is a little more north and east, but not nearly as much as the . No 12Z to look at yet.
So we are seeing pretty good swings in model solutions...making any forecast a low-confidence one at this point.
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Jason Kelley
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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So based on this track from the 11am Advisory they are looking for it to skim up the east coast of FL now and remain offshore, until it gets to the FL/GA border and then make landfall perhaps.
Nice graphic there , how did you create it?
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anony
Unregistered
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Now goes to JAX area at 1100. Stay tuned, it'll change again!
sc 
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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The lastest 11 AM is in the track has been nudged a little to the right and north..
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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JB is obviously picking up on the data we received that the may have information others don't...any way I think we all agreed that Wednesday's models will be the tale...I am impressed so far this year with the 's 72 hour fixes, unlike a couple of years ago when anything else did happen.
In response to DEE of Bradenton...IF the 5 day were to hold, and that is what this discussion is all about, then in Bradenton/ Parrish we should get only the W and SW quardrant and then " only " tropical force winds I would suspect.
If it did a Donna trac and similar intensity...again NW abd W side, but probably hurricane CATI to II force for about 30-60 minutes., depending on where it would enter the coast.
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doug
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luki
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 17
Loc: palm beach county
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ive seen some models suggest a JAX landfall allthough in the past 24 hrs they change but still some are suggesting it.Being in JAX Im extremely concerned,we havent had a hit here since dora in 64 and ever since floyd and now our forcasters here anyway are real reluctant to say anyting,i have a bad feeling abut this one,seems to me with every update the cone comes a little more N,my fear is everyone in this general area will not be concerned and we could very well see a play out here
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Yes, it has...although I haven't read the disco yet, that means that they are banking on the /GFDL combo...
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Jason Kelley
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Track more northerly...looks like FL/SC border:
5 Day Track
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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meto
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 140
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yep, some are talking bout floyd and this one, there are big diffrences, this one is much farther sourh, going west, and there is no trof, as there was with floyd. looks to be getting even stronger. 145+ today.
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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc:
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Morning Jason,
Good to see you on again.
Please feel free to give your input.
This looks bad for the central part of the state
History would predict a N. turn but also many historic storms have crossed the state. In the last 50 years, most have curved up to the NC area however.
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tbaje
Unregistered
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based on the models what is turning it north a weakening in the High? pardon my ignorance.
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Redbird
Unregistered
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Florida - Georgia right?
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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There is a trough actually in the northeast, that's suppose to work it's magic on and pull it up north, but there could be some change to that as the approaching high will weaken it to some degree.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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It would be cool if you could update this based on the 11AM forecast track.
Thanks!
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________2024 Forecast: 28/14/8________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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Shawn
Unregistered
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South Florida has a pretty good chance of missing this. This thing is going to Georgia or South Carolina.
Tomorrow will tell the tale, though. If this thing doesn't start going "officially" WNW by tomorrow night, Florida is going to be back on the hotseat. But, if it is, most of Florida will be pretty safe.
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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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Glad to see this site is still going strong! Storm2k is jammed up. Not many crazy people hyping everything up here as well. Thanks everyone.
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luki
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 17
Loc: palm beach county
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thats what im seeing,ive had a gut feeling about this,and thats all it is im not an expert by any means,even though its obvious where they are now putting it cant help but have that voice in the back of my head saying its not gonna hit us,i do know thats a good way of thinking,we are so overdue to be hit up here
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caneman
Unregistered
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Ths is actually stil not a good scenarion because it would run the coast from Cape Canaveral to JAX at around 30 miles East of the shoreline. Tremendous flooding, storm sure and wind damage if ths pans out
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Redbird
Unregistered
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Shawn what are you basing this on?
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