LI Phil
User
Reged:
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
|
|
>>> Where did this XTRAP model come from and why does it exist?
"XTRAP" is not a model. It is showing the direction the storm is currently moving, were it to continue infinitely on it's present course. Just discount it altogether.
--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
|
Ricreig
User
Reged:
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
|
|
Quote:
Where did this XTRAP model come from and why does it exist? I mean come on this thing has had coming all the way across the gulf, towards Texas, it seems like the entire time. I've never even heard of this model and maybe for good reason
ShawnS
....could be wrong but are you maybe referring to the PROGRAM that our host wrote to 'trap;' the models from the so we can visualize the trends more easily?
--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
|
BillD
User
Reged:
Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
|
|
Wow, had not seen the 18Z HurricaneAlley spaghetti plot. That is a scary sight.
However, many of the models have been flip-flopping (no political jokes Phil!) including key models like the . I still don't think they have a good handle on . Also many of these models "feed" off each other. It is natural for them to track together. Which is why I also pay close attention to the Canadian and UK models (just now learnng about the Euro model) because they are not necessarily influenced by the others. As good as we might be at this, I think we in the US have a lot to learn from the rest of the world.
Bill
|
SoonerShawn
Unregistered
|
|
I guess that is why I had never heard of it!!!
Thank You.
ShawnS
|
k___g
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 110
Loc: Leesburg, FL
|
|
You are correct John...I have relied on this site for several years and look forward to many more...Thanks for all you've provided me and my family.
|
WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
|
|
Went out and about tonight checking things out. Some homes in the neighborhood have already started putting up shutters. Gas stations had lines of 10 cars plus. Stores packed and lines very long. Supplies dwindling quickly. The good news is that everyone in this area is taking the storm seriously. Local WPB tv stations now doing hurricane updates every 1/2 hour.
My take - Just remember that 90% of all major hurricanes that go through Hebert's box hit Dade, Broward, or Palm Beach counties down the road as major hurricanes.
--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
|
scottsvb1
Unregistered
|
|
I posted earlier about a movement back to the wnw after slowing down in the northern bahamas, Its depending on the weakness off the SE US to move out to the NE.Then a bit of a turn wnw before the next trough picks it up on sunday. Landfall looking more likely in WPB-Cape but not ready to say that until after 12Z models out on Weds. scottsvb
|
alan
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 95
Loc: Apopka, FL
|
|
Just got back from Costco. What a zoo.
They were out of water. The D batteries and flashlights were going quick. Most of the canned good were getting low. Of course, there were people in line with meat griping about the panic hitting Florida.
But, as I told the people in the office, now is the time to buy things such as non-perishable food, water and batteries. You'll use them eventually if you buy the things you would normally eat anyway. My shopping list: Water, canned fruit and veggies, soup, rice, pasta, d-batteries, an extra flashlight set, diapers, formula, candle lighters. Did I miss anything?
Propane tank is full from .
Gas line was long, but I think that has more to do with the state tacking on 8 cents of taxes in three hours than with .
|
Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
|
|
Wxman Richie....wait till the watches and warnings go up for our area....then we will see some action! Btw, does anyone have an idea when South/Central FL coast watches/warnings would be issued? I am trying to figure out a timeline for my shutter hanging party.
|
Ricreig
User
Reged:
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
|
|
Quote:
Went out and about tonight checking things out. Some homes in the neighborhood have already started putting up shutters. Gas stations had lines of 10 cars plus. Stores packed and lines very long. Supplies dwindling quickly. The good news is that everyone in this area is taking the storm seriously. Local WPB tv stations now doing hurricane updates every 1/2 hour.
My take - Just remember that 90% of all major hurricanes that go through Hebert's box hit Dade, Broward, or Palm Beach counties down the road as major hurricanes.
SAM's here in Orlando just about out of batteries, the gas stations are mostly full of cars, some only have 'premium' left. This may be as much the 8c tax break the state offered through today (August) as preparation for the storm, but it does have the right effect...many cars will be nearer full than empty this time around.
As to the 90%...maybe this one of the 10% that MISS the Dade-PB county area?? For your sake, I hope it is....for my sake, I kinda hope it is the 90% 'cause I'll most surely be homeless on Sunday morning unless I can find the pieces of my trailer
--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
|
javlin
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
|
|
It seems to me that the LBAR for a few if not more runs has been consisently S.If the ULL is currently weakening and the high is building to the N of we will most likley see the same movement tomorrow morning.That being said I would have to opt out for landfall way S in FL.I would love to this thing heave N I just can't see it happening.I really hope I am wrong.
Oh by the way moderator's done a fine job in keeping the site up and running.
|
BabyCat
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 150
Loc: New Orleans, La.
|
|
yup
I just saw that, too
yikes!
Well, anywhere it hits will be bad news...
|
RickInRockledge
Unregistered
|
|
Strange...just looked at the Models on the WeatherUnderground site, and they are only showing 2 models, BAMM and . Usually they show several of the others. Any guesses why? I'm speculating they just don't have current models and don't want to confuse the picture further.
|
Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
|
|
Ricreig...can you post that wind swath graphic showing landfall in Vero Beach heading WNW to NW?
|
BabyCat
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 150
Loc: New Orleans, La.
|
|
That's the nice thing about this site: you can find alot of great information on it!
|
RickInRockledge
Unregistered
|
|
Never mind... they're all there now (the models).. must've been a loading thing.
|
Ricreig
User
Reged:
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
|
|
Quote:
Ricreig...can you post that wind swath graphic showing landfall in Vero Beach heading WNW to NW?
Scroll back to post #22229 in this thread...it is the most recent that shows that path. Skeetobyte originally posted it and in PM to him, he said he'd try to get a current one up, but it would look much the same as post #22229
--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
|
Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
|
|
XTRAP is short for eXTRAPolation. It is a straight line plot of the storm based on its current direction and speed. No forecasting at all on it.
|
Ricreig
User
Reged:
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
|
|
Quote:
XTRAP is short for eXTRAPolation. It is a straight line plot of the storm based on its current direction and speed. No forecasting at all on it.
Yeah...why didn't *I* think of that when I was asked originally....We had been talking about the program that displays trends, but the frams all had the ....XTRAP... line on it and you are right, this is the extension of the current path...where it'd go if it didn't turn at all. Good thinking....
--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
|
Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
|
|
It seems like every model has a good reason to be doing what it is doing. [Excluding A98E which is so far out to lunch, it will have to call the office and tell the boss it is lost] Not sure there will be a model consensus for another 24 hours. Seem to be so many variables right now. A friend of mine even noted that these runs are laying waste to the whole of the global models across the board on temperature and the like. They really seem to be strungling to latch on to something and stick with it.
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
Edit
Reply
Quote
